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Bryant & RIPEC: "Strength of the State's Economy Should Not Be Overstated"

GoLocalProv Business Team

Bryant & RIPEC: "Strength of the State's Economy Should Not Be Overstated"

Bryant and RIPEC says RI's economy is rising
The Rhode Island economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the latest report from The Center for Global and Regional Economic Studies at Bryant University and the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council (RIPEC). 

Read the full report HERE

The latest growth follows a growth of 1.6 % in the fourth quarter and 5.0 % in the second and third quarters of 2016. 

Still Concerns About the Economy

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However, RIPEC’s executive director John Simmons points out there are still reason for concern. 

"Rhode Island's economic growth over the last four quarters is promising. However, there are causes for concern, and the strength of the state's economy should not be overstated,” said Simmons.

RI’s May revenue estimates project that state revenues will be $60.1 million lower than anticipated in the current fiscal year (FY) 2017, and $39.5 million lower than anticipated in FY 2018.  Sales and use taxes are also projected to fall short of November estimates, by $12.3 million in FY 2017 and $1.5 million in FY 2018, despite new collections from online retailer Amazon that started in February 2017.  Personal income tax collections were also revised downward, by $0.9 million in FY 2017 and $18.9 million in FY 2018.   

“These revised estimates raise questions about the nature of economic growth in Rhode Island, the types of jobs we are creating, and the robustness of the state's recovery since the Great Recession.  Clearly, more work must be done to promote the kind of economic growth and development that is broadly-based and sustainable in the long term, including a focus on growing high-wage jobs, attracting businesses in high-growth sectors, and generally making Rhode Island a more attractive place to live, work, and do business,” said Simmons. 

Growth in New England Economy 

According to the report, positive growth was also seen in the New England economy.

The Regional CEI estimates that the New England economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017, compared to 1.9 percent, 3.6 percent, and 0.7 percent growth in the fourth, third, and second quarters of 2016, respectively. 

According to the report: 

Ten of the eleven CEI components positively impacted Rhode Island's economic performance in the first quarter of 2017.  General sales and gross receipt taxes, a proxy for aggregate state demand, increased for the third quarter in a row, growing by 1.3 percent (seasonally adjusted).  Real wage and salary disbursements also experienced growth this quarter, increasing by 3.0 percent (annualized, seasonally adjusted) after a decline of 1.9 percent in the last quarter of 2016.  The state's unemployment rate is also trending downward, as indicated by an 18.3 percent decline (seasonally adjusted) in average weekly initial unemployment claims in the first quarter of 2017, compared to a 14.1 percent increase in the previous quarter.

Employment expanded in seven of the eight industries included in the CEI during the first quarter of the year.  The construction industry experienced its third consecutive quarter of employment growth, expanding by an annualized, seasonally adjusted rate of 30.2 percent in the first quarter of the year.  Six other industries experienced more modest employment growth (annualized, seasonally adjusted) relative to the fourth quarter of 2016, including trade, transportation and utilities (3.2 percent); professional and business services (2.8 percent); leisure and hospitality (1.9 percent); manufacturing (1.7 percent); financial services (1.2 percent); and education and health services employment (0.2 percent).

Information services employment is the only factor that negatively impacted Rhode Island's CEI this quarter.  Employment in this sector contracted for the second quarter in a row, decreasing by 11.1 percent (annualized, seasonally adjusted), compared to a contraction of 12.5 percent in the previous quarter.

The quarterly CEI, developed by economists at The Center for Global and Regional Economic Studies at Bryant University, combines several key gauges of economic activity in a single statistic that measures the overall current economic conditions in Rhode Island. It is calibrated to grow at the rate of the Real Gross State Product and, therefore, can be interpreted as an estimate of the growth rate of the state economy. The CEI is calculated using the most current available data for the state.


Rhode Island’s 50 Wealthiest and Most Influential - 2015 Edition

429 Too Many Requests

429 Too Many Requests


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