Lardaro Report: RI Economic Recovery Doesn't Keep Pace With National Growth
GoLocalProv Business Team
Lardaro Report: RI Economic Recovery Doesn't Keep Pace With National Growth
Rhode Island’s economic expansion still falls short of the national average in November, according to the Current Conditions Index compiled by University of Rhode Island economics professor Leonard Lardaro.
The Current Conditions Index (CCI) is a monthly indicator that details the present state of the Rhode Island economy by following the behavior of key economic indicators pertaining to housing, retail sales, fiscal pressures, the employment situation, and labor supply. The November ranking was a 67, up from a 58 in October, but down from a 75 in September, August, and July.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTA score of 50 or higher indicates an expanding economy, while a score of lower than 50 shows an declining economy.
According to Lardaro, “At this point, it is safe to conclude that in spite of accelerating national economic activity, Rhode Island’s recovery has failed its first test of becoming more broadly based, at least statistically. So, as we move further into the fourth quarter, the lingering question of whether our state’s economic performance is decoupling from the accelerating national economy remains.”
“‘The’ question of the fourth quarter is whether the pace of Rhode Island’s recovery will keep pace with the accelerating national economy. Gauging this has not been as easy as one might think, since there have been a few data difficulties and several atypical “comps” along the way. So, while it remains uncertain whether the pace of our recovery will eventually accelerate, it is at least safe to say that Rhode Island’s recovery is continuing, albeit less broadly based than we would like. The improving national economy and declining energy prices can only benefit our state’s recovery, hopefully causing its pace to move more in line with the national economy.”
Inauguration 2015: Ten Issues Raimondo Can't Hide From
Pensions
The fate of the historic 2011 pension reform is back in the courts -- for now. After a mediated settlement was rejected last year, it was back to the drawing board for the challenge to the legality of the state's landmark pension reform. And while that decision hangs in the balance -- will it be decided in the courts, or will a new settlement be reached -- some, including GoLocalProv Mindsetter Michael Riley, have predicted that Providence's municipal pension system to be on the verge of collapse. Raimondo has to not only deal with the potential ramifications of alterations to pension reform at the state level, but the viability of municipalities themselves -- and none as important as the Capital City. As goes Providence, goes the state.
Providence
The potential for the City of Providence to declare bankruptcy was subject of debate during the Mayoral campaign, and some question whether it is on the table. "We will always struggle with half of our tax base untaxable. We will always have to manage intensely our budget. We're not going to cut our way, or tax our way, out of the doldrums," said newly elected Council President Luis Aponte in December. "I would say that everything should be on the table." Raimondo has warned against the state's cities and towns "teetering" on the brink of bankuptcy. With Providence in a precarious position, Raimondo can't hide from acknowledging the city's fiscal health and future.
Investigation
Raimondo was already the subject of one investigation by former Securities and Exchange Council (SEC) lawyer and Forbes contributor Edward Siedle in 2013 -- and is now poised to be under scrutiny for another. Siedle first confirmed with GoLocal in late November that he plans on a follow-up look at the state's pension investment strategy, and has the funding to do so. Raimondo can't hide from the fact that she is still under scrutiny for her hedge fund strategy, despite moving up the food chain from being the state's General Treasurer.
HealthSource RI
Now that former HealthSource RI head Christy Ferguson is out, and Anya Rader Wallack is in, the question still remains -- what is the future for Rhode Island's Obamacare vehicle? Federal subsidies to assist states with their exchanges are scheduled to stop at the end of this year. Raimondo's opponent Allan Fung ran on a staunchly anti-Obamacare platform, arguing the costs to businesses, program costs itself, were unsustainable. A close look (or possibly battle) at the General Assembly will put the program under scrutiny for its cost-effectiveness -- and the new Governor will be expected to provide leadership and guidance on the question of viability.
General Assembly
In a state with a legislature that is inarguably more powerful that the executive branch, who the Governor opts to serve as his --or her -- top government relations staffers is critical. Governor Chafee had several -- Steve Hartford headed up policy before replacing Richard Licht at the Department of Administration and Stephen Kavanagh was head of Legislative Affairs. Raimondo's choice of who will be her key conduit(s) in the State House chambers is a key decision that should be made known shortly, as the General Assembly convenes just after official inauguration ceremonies for the Governor on Tuesday.
More Staffing
While Raimondo has filled a number of key positions with hires and nominations -- Chief of Staff, Director of Administration, Commerce Secretary, Directors of Labor and Training, Human Services -- there are still high-level decisions that need to be made, and soon. DCYF. Transporation. DBR. Legal counsel. Raimondo has opted to retain several high ranking posts (AT Wall at the Department of Corrections; Janet Coit at DEM). Some very important staffing calls will need to take place in the coming weeks for Raimondo.
Education Commissioner
The fate of the Deborah Gist, Commissioner of the Rhode Island Department of Education, is in the air. The deadline to extend Gist's contract was supposed to occur six months prior to its end date in June, but as that has now come and gone, the future of Gist, who has been the helm since being appointed in 2009, is uncertain. The Board of Education could still address Gist's contract in the coming months, but ultimately Raimondo will have to weigh in who she wants to be RI's education leader -- Gist, or someone else.
195's Future
Raimondo during her campaign made a public showing of support to develop the 195 land in Providence into a manufacturing hub. Touting the establishment of an "innovation institute" as an anchor for the corridor, Raimondo will need to realize how to make her proposal a reality -- especially given as the first purchase and sales agreement on the land has been for a student dormitory, providing little indication of the interested parties -- and potential business interest in the land moving forward.
Outsiders, Insiders
Raimondo has put together a team of individuals who happen to have achieved most of their professional accomplishments -- outside of Rhode Island. Her Chief of Staff. Nominations for Secretary of Commerce. Director of Labor and Training. While the Administration has a number of high-profile Democrats, they are not from Rhode Island. While some question how well they could know the inner-workings of RI state government, others have lauded that new perspectives offer a fresh change from insider politics. How well will the new guard in the Administration square up with the old guard In General Assembly -- Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed and House Majority Leader Nicholas Mattiello, among others?
Budget..and Bankruptcies
With the embattled Coventry Fire District declaring bankruptcy in December, the issues with the cash-strapped department are far from over. After Central Falls declared bankruptcy in 2011, now another state-appointed receiver has opted to go with the option of last resort. Raimondo will no doubt have to address the ongoing situation in Coventry, but also the precedent moving forward for other municipalities considering the big "B". The state is already facing a possible $200 million budget deficit, with further issues ahead with gaming receipt shorthalls looming, not to mention the impact of a possible pension reform settlement. How much more can cash-strapped cities and towns take?
