2010 Hurricane Season: Quiet or Another 2005?

2010 Hurricane Season: Quiet or Another 2005?

If the long-range hurricane season prediction pundits are correct, this is going to be one wild and wooly summer and fall when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes. In fact, if some predictions hold true, we may zip tight through the 2010 list of 21 names that begins with Alex and ends with Walter (Q, U, X, Y and Z are not used) and head on to list number two which then uses the Greek alphabet to name the storms (e.g. Hurricane Alpha). The only time that has happened so far was in 2005, the busiest season ever and the one that produced “Katrina” among others, when 27 storms were named of which 15 reached hurricane strength.

I made a random survey of 4 or 5 of the most respected hurricane season prognosticators and remarkably came up with a unanimous opinion that this is going to be a mega-season of near 2005 proportions. Everyone seems to be in agreement (very rare for the meteorological community!) that many of the elements that made the 2005 season so prolific will be present again this year.

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Here is a rundown of those forecasts.

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Government’s official agency is predicting a wide range from a modest 14 named storms to as many as 23, 8-14 of which become hurricanes and 3-7 major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater. The group 28 storms.com says there will be 24-27 named storms, 6-7 of which will be major hurricanes. As and aside, they get the season underway early with 7-8 named storms between now and August 1st . Weather Services International (WSI) predicts 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes including 3 major hurricanes. Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather’s hurricane guru sees 16-18 named storms. And the group under Dr, William Gray from Colorado State University, whom I consider the true pioneer in the field, also sees a very active season. Their April forecast of 15 named storms has been upped to18 in their June forecast released just today. They have increased the number of hurricanes from 8 to 10 and major hurricanes from 4 to 5.

So the predictions have been made. Now, just when will Alex appear? We're all waiting and watching.