The Cicilline Apology Train: Will it Pay Off?

The Cicilline Apology Train: Will it Pay Off?

Facing a sinking approval rating and a double-digit deficit in the polls, Congressman David Cicilline this week did an about-face on Providence’s finances, admitting for the first time that he was wrong when he said the city was in “excellent financial condition” in his final days as Mayor in 2010.

The Congressman apologized to voters who felt misled by his characterization of the city’s finances (Mayor Taveras would reveal the city was facing a $110 million structural deficit only a few months later) and said he wished he would have been more vocal about how devastating cuts in state aid and the national recession were hurting Providence.

His critics labeled the apology as purely political. Supporters say the Congressman’s contrition is the sign of an honest leader.

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So what impact, if any, will it have on the election?

“The apology gives voters a chance to take a second look at the Congressman,” Darrell West, Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C., said.
“Sometimes, people like contrition and appreciate it when politicians admit mistakes. The biggest problem is with the continuing financial problems of the city of Providence.”

Better to be Candid

West said voters will have a constant reminder of the city’s troubled finances throughout the election as Mayor Taveras attempts to avoid municipal bankruptcy. To do so, he’ll likely have to propose a massive tax hike on property owners, a decision that could damage the Congressman’s reputation in the city even further.

“Cicilline will have opponents running around the district telling people about the issue,” West said. “That is a bad combination for the general election.”

Still, Brown Political Science professor Wendy Schiller said the apology was a move Cicilline had to make. She said voters like when their leaders are candid.

“I think that the Congressman had to address the issue because as long as Providence is facing a fiscal crisis he would never be able to change the subject and focus on his role as a member of Congress rather than the former Mayor,” she said. “Whether it will pay off in the primary or the general election is anyone's guess but I think modern politics shows us that it is better to be candid with the voters than not candid.”

News Cycle Hurts Cicilline

The question now, according to Rhode Island College professor of political communication Dr. Kay Israel, is whether Cicilline can redirect voter outrage toward his opponents. He said the apology was the correct decision.

“As a strategy it beats the ‘I never did or had’ denials we’ve seen in the past,” Israel said. “While it doesn’t expunge the record, it may soften the disenchantment.”

Israel said one concern for Cicilline will be whether voters even remember the apology come election time. He said that the fact that the apology has had a shelf life for even a few days shows it was moderately successful, but with a 24/7 news cycle, it might not help in the long run.

To win reelection, Israel predicted, Cicilline may have to hope for a major misstep by Republican challenger Brendan Doherty. He said the election will run counter to what the district has seen in the past. Instead o f the incumbent being heavily favored and being able to use his or her position to dominate the race, he’ll need Doherty to embrace a Republican national agenda that is likely to scare away 1st District voters.

“As the likely Democratic candidate, he'll have to hope that his Republican opponent opts to drive around in a tank, wind surfs in front of the cameras or strongly endorses that party’s conservative platform,” Israel said. “At this time it’s more a matter of a Republican not trying to lose this seat, rather than having to win it.”

Too Little, Too Late

And defeating Doherty may be a tall task, according to Quest Research pollster Victor Profughi, who said it can be difficult to change peoples’ minds. With Cicilline set to face a bruising primary against an opponent (Anthony Gemma) who will not hesitate to unleash a barrage of negative ads, the Congressman may be too beaten up to survive in the general election.

“Once perceptions have been formed, as in Cicilline’s case they are hard to shake,” Profughi said. “His essentially half-admission, and virtually no sense of contrition, is not likely to work. Definitely too little and way too late.”

Profughi said if President Clinton’s admission during the Monica Lewinsky scandal is the gold standard when it comes to politicians talking about their problems, Cicilline doesn’t compare favorably at all.

“A convincing contrition strategy is one that accepts responsibility 100 percent, is completely transparent, and, importantly delivered to an audience which has a significant number of people who like the person apologizing,” Profughi said. “He still appears to be fudging on responsibility, hasn’t appeared sincere or credible when put in the context of Providence’s fiscal mess, and has left himself open to continued criticism. It just won’t begin to turn the tide of opinion.”
 

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