For RI, Modeling on Spread of Coronavirus and Estimated Deaths Sets a Bleak Scenario
GoLocalProv News Team
For RI, Modeling on Spread of Coronavirus and Estimated Deaths Sets a Bleak Scenario
“Rhode Island and the CDC are looking carefully at incidence proportions in other countries and other patterns related to COVID-19. Using that information, we are taking community mitigation measures to limit spread here and reduce the burden on our state,” said Joseph Wendelken, the public information officer for the Rhode Island Department of Health.
A GoLocal request for copies of modeling for Rhode Island for best and worst-case scenarios from the Rhode Island Department of health was denied, with the Health Department citing exemptions to the Access to Public Record statute.
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Nationally modeling unveils disturbing possibilities
Modeling by the CDC has been unveiled and the best case scenarios are disturbing and the worst cases almost unfathomable.
According to The Hill, “One model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested that between 160 million and 210 million Americans could contract the disease over as long as a year. Based on mortality data and current hospital capacity, the number of deaths under the CDC's scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million.”
Applying those numbers to Rhode Island’s population, the range is 600 to 5,000 deaths -- Rhode Island comprises one-third of one percent of the United States' population.
Former Rhode Island Director of Heath Dr. Micheal Fine says that his analysis of the Wuhan numbers, that he estimates are more conservative numbers, flags several critical elements -- including healthcare response.
“My numbers are just estimates — not full-blown modeling and that the scenario I developed is based on learning from Wuhan. It needs to be taken into account that Wuhan sent 40,000 healthcare workers in the area. If you use the Wuhan scenario, Rhode Island would receive about 3,600 new healthcare workers to assist,” said Fine.
6090 Coronavirus Cases in RI
182 A Day at Height
840 Hospitalized
371 Needing ICU
272 Deaths
Fine’s estimates are almost a best-case scenario in comparison to CDC numbers.
The CDC modeling found as many as 21 million Americans may need hospitalization, which is more than 20 times the United State’s estimated 925,000 hospital beds.
The CDC's model was described to The Hill by an expert who watched the CDC’s presentation.
“CDC is working with federal partners on modeling efforts to estimate how many COVID-19 illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths might occur under various hypothetical scenarios and what the economic impact of COVID-19 might be on the United States. This type of modeling work is commonly used as a planning tool during outbreaks and can help inform the public health response, as well as other policies (e.g. economic policies) to mitigate the potential impact on the United States,” a CDC spokesman said in a statement.
WATCH: Former RI Director of Health Dr. Michael Fine on GoLocal LIVE Each Day at 12 noon
The good news reported Wednesday morning was in China where they only reported 34 new cases— and all of those were imported cases. The Wuhan region reported no new cases. Of course, China looks swift action and isolated the Wuhan region and flooded the area with an estimated 40,000 additional healthcare workers.
The bad news is the number of cases in Italy is skyrocketing even after 10 days of lockdown.
Italy reported 475 death on Wednesday —the highest number of deaths to date.