The Real Story Behind U.S. Seizing North Korean Ship: 1-On-1 With Naval War College Expert Roehrig
GoLocalProv News Team
The Real Story Behind U.S. Seizing North Korean Ship: 1-On-1 With Naval War College Expert Roehrig
"To be honest, a lot of this is standard North Korean negotiating strategy — trying to place pressure on the U.S. and generate a third summit — and to get the U.S. to move off its position, which is demanding complete denuclearization before sanctions are lifted," said Roehrig. "There’s no chance the U.S. would lift as many as [Kim] asked for at Hanoi, but there is room for the U.S. to offer something to get something. It’s North Korea trying to push the envelope."
Missile Launches
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST"There were two launches — last Saturday and this Thursday," said Roehrig. "There’s still an assessment by the U.S. and South Korea regarding this week's launch."
"Last Saturday seemed to be part of multiple rocket-launcher system. You would like to see nothing happen, but on the other hand, it’s not terribly provocative as a weapon system," said Roehrig. "But the short range Russian ballistic missile [launch Thursday], it’s either a Russian Iskander, or a North Korean version based on that design."
Roehrig spoke to the headlines of how the U.S. seized a North Korean ship didn't tell the full story.
"The ship that was seized -- the ship had been quarantined by Indonesia in April of 2018, but the U.S. started a formal process in July [2018] to seize the ship. I’m sure there’s more to the process as to how [international authoriities] make the decision, the formal decision that the U.S. could seize the ship," said Roehrig.
"You see the headline, but again it was already stopped in an Indonesian port [last year]. North Korea is slick in getting around sanctions. But as far as the headlines are concerned, it would have been an OMG moment if we just stopped this ship, but that's not what happened," said Roehrig.
"So that next round of tests [on Thursday] was a response to that probably. North Korea launched [two] that could have been short-range ballistic missiles," said Roehrig. "These missiles if ballistic would violate the UN security council sanctions — but not necessarily the promise [Kim Jong-un] gave to Trump of no long-range missiles."
"After Saturday, Trump was with Kim Jong-un, but after the second one, Trump had a [much different reaction]," said Roehrig. "There’s some speculation that when Hanoi happened, that Kim might have thought Trump was in a vulnerable political position and might be more willing to compromise. I think North Korea also sees the U.S. being very involved in other issues and being distracted."
"Kim understands where Bolton and Pompeo stand — and his best bet is to get Trump in a room alone. Is Tump’s re-election guaranteed? Either the Trump administration will be so distracted — if [Kim Jong-un] doesn’t get it by this year, the chance that Trump loses, that he’s out the door. [North Korea] understands this may be their chance to get sanction relief."
"I think the politics of this is fascinating. It cuts in both directions. If instead of Trump this was a Democratic President, how would this be playing out on Fox? They would be pilloried. A Democratic President would have been roasted," said Roehrig. "I think it this was a Democrat it would be different. In the end, we are dealing with a situation that does not have a solution — it’s about managing the situation."
"The U.S. needs to offer some degree of small sanction relief for some North Korean concessions and see how that goes — and if it’s able to move forward, it’s worth trying," said Roehrig. "But I’m skeptical."
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