2018 Gov’s Playbook: Who Has Momentum?

2018 Gov’s Playbook: Who Has Momentum?

Some of the top political experts weigh in on the final weeks of the Democratic and Republican primaries.

With just over two weeks to go until primary decision day, some of the candidates are going door-to-door and some took a four-day family vacation — Governor Gina Raimondo.

“Governor Raimondo has severely limited the public's ability to compare candidates by refusing to debate her opponents.  Mayor [Allan] Fung has done the same by agreeing only to a single, minor venue.  It's clear that both frontrunners fear giving legitimacy to their challengers by taking the stage with them during this primary season.  While it may be a smart move for each of the campaigns, denying the public full debates with all major candidates present just adds to voter cynicism and leaves many in the public without a substantial basis for comparison” said Val Endress, Professor of Political Commentary at Rhode Island College.

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Raimondo and Fung Widely Criticized

In a guest MINDESETTER™ in GoLocalProv on Sunday, former GOP Executive Director Jeff Deckman, writes, “Think about the level of arrogance, hubris, self-absorbed egotism and entitlement that must be deeply embedded in an individual’s character that would lead them to take such a forceful stand against the people’s right to select their next Governor from an informed position. But it gets worse. If God forbid, both Gina and Allan win their primaries. That will mean the people of Rhode Island will most likely have the first gubernatorial election in their history where there will be no debates.”

Some say the lack of debates will have a chilling effect on turnout. No debates. No interest.

“Debates have become part of the democratic process for a reason: they focus the public's attention on the campaign in a meaningful way.  Those who listen or watch debates are more likely to seek additional information on the candidates and they are more likely to vote,” said Endress.  

June Speakman of Roger Williams University tells GoLocal, “As noted by others, without polling, it’s difficult to answer the “momentum” question. And none of these campaigns are garnering a huge amount of media attention.”

“That, plus the absence of debates, makes it difficult for voters to get excited one way or another about any of these races.  What we do see is a lot of old school grassroots voter contact activity---door-knocking, phone banking and direct mail.  The difference is that this activity is guided by data and targeted at receptive voters.  These activities may decide the outcome on September 12th, rather than grand forces like momentum, debates and television ads,” adds Speakman.

But, some believe all the momentum is with Raimondo. “Raimondo without question.....Brown doesn't have near the viability or the money to build interest. Dickinson just isn't well enough known to have a shot,” said Victor Profughi, political scientist and pollster.   

Republicans--its harder to make sense out of since there are so few of them likely to vote in the primary, but Fung would be my guess,” said Profughi.

 

Turnout — GOTV

If the progressives can match the massive campaign organization of Raimondo, the race could be competitive.

“The one unknown is perhaps the strength of the GOTV efforts of RI's progressives in the Democratic primary.  Both [Matt] Brown in the governor's race and [Aaron] Regunberg in the lieutenant governor's race, combined with the Trump effect on national politics, and the bungled RI Democratic endorsement process seems to have galvanized progressives in the state.  We've seen progressives make inroads in other states in earlier primaries, so there is some interest nationally to see if there is viability for statewide office here.  For that reason, there's always room for an upset in the Democratic gubernatorial race, but the odds are against it, particularly in the absence of campaign debates,” said Endress.

 

Advantage Front Runners

Will the non-debaters be rewarded? There is a worry by many in the media and in public policy that Fung's and Raimondo's strategy of refusing to participate may payoff. 

Former GOP State Representative and now Independent candidate for Governor Joe Trillo has criticized both Raimondo and Fung, but had especially harsh words for Fung. 

"If ever there was an elitist attitude, this is it,” said Trillo.  “Allan Fung can’t win in a fair primary against his political opponents and he can’t win against Gina, another elitist, in the general election, and he knows it.  That’s precisely why he refused to debate his primary challengers live on the radio, yesterday,” said Trillo.

“He’s so afraid of forming an opinion that could hurt him, that he’s running his campaign on poll data only.  If the question polls well, he supports it.  If it doesn’t, he says nothing.”

"Breaking with the tradition of a robust schedule of campaign debates means that the gubernatorial race in Rhode Island is essentially frozen, money continues to flow to frontrunners, frontrunner status is maintained, and it becomes increasingly difficult for challengers to get a foothold," said Endress.

"Those with the most money can buy more ads, command more media attention, distribute more campaign literature, create more robust GOTV (get-out-the-vote) efforts,  and strengthen other aspects of the ground game," added Endress.