2022 RI Gov’s Race Gearing Up with Surprise Potential Candidates and Big Issues Emerging
GoLocalProv News Team and Kate Nagle
2022 RI Gov’s Race Gearing Up with Surprise Potential Candidates and Big Issues Emerging
With term-limited Governor Gina Raimondo to leave office, a plethora of Democrats and Republicans are beginning to raise money and talk to potential consultants.
The political breakfast circuit is in full bloom.
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SEE THE LIST OF POTENTIAL CANDIDATES BELOW
There Are Major X-Factors
The biggest question emerging is can any Republican be viable if President Donald Trump is re-elected in 2020.
“The first question I would ask is, does the Republican Party have politically viable candidates? Before we consider the impact of a second Trump presidency on the gubernatorial election, there stands a rather large obstacle, and that is recruitment and mentoring of politically viable candidates,” said Rhode Island College Professor Valerie Endress.
“The party needs experienced and credible members of the party who are willing to run, and this is a process that takes years. In other words, the party suffers from the lack of a bench, and recruitment of candidates at every level should be a priority. Thus far, it’s been an insurmountable challenge, but that should be the focus,” said Endress.
The word out of Cranston is that Allan Fung is planning on a third try for Governor. His first loss was blamed on the impact of the Moderate Party’s Robert Healey’s impact (21.4% of the general election vote in 2014).
But, Fung’s second run was far less impressive and failed to articulate a message and the campaign was poorly run.
“In politics, it is two strikes and you are out. I doubt whether a third try for Allan Fung will be productive. He will have to overcome perceptions that he can’t win statewide,” Darrell West of the Brookings Institute tells GoLocal.
“Fung might be viable in a third bid, as anything is possible in Rhode Island. But, he certainly can’t run his campaign as he did in 2018. Remaining silent or taking a non-committal stance on policies enacted on the federal level left even members of his own party unsure of where he stood," says Endress. "His avoidance of Rhode Island media, particularly at critical stages of his campaign was puzzling. Fung also waited too long to reveal his campaign policy agenda and seemed only laser focused on leveling harsh attacks on the incumbent. His image suffered for those who liked Fung and wanted a reason to vote for him. And, he gave media little to report on for far too long."
Governor Bruce Sundlun won on his third try for the office, but Myrth York ran three times and set up more than a decade of GOP dominance in the governor's office.
The takeover of the Providence Schools has made national news and been a blow to Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza’s reputation.
“It will be difficult for the mayor to take a lead role on improving education in Providence when constituents perceive that he’s part of the problem. Right now there’s the perception that he’s playing catch up while the problem has been placed in what appears to be more competent hands," said Endress.
“This is a problem that wasn’t created overnight and deserved more attention by all Rhode Island officials, including the mayor. And, it is unlikely that the problem can be solved any time soon, which will place Elorza in a politically vulnerable position for future office,” she added.
The issue of the failing schools has garnered national attention, making it even more of an issue for Elorza.
“The Providence School problems create big issues for Elorza. It is difficult to overcome the widespread view these schools are failing. Having a hard-hitting report criticizing school conditions is not a strong basis for a statewide race,” said West.
“The 2022 political climate will depend a lot of the economy. Right now, many leading forecasters say there is a good chance of a national recession in the next year. If that happens, it will put a premium on candidates who have good economic ideas and can convince voters he or she is the right person to lead the state out of economic difficulty,” said West.
“In the 2022 gubernatorial race, voters will be looking for a candidate that focuses on issues that mattered most to them and their families. For example: Is my neighborhood safe? Will good-paying jobs be available? Are the schools preparing my kids for the future? Will there be access to affordable health care? Is government affordable, efficient and fair?” said Gary Sasse of the Hassenfeld Institute at Bryant University.
“The successful candidate will be viewed as a 'can do' problem-solver who addresses the needs of the people, rather than the needs of elites, insiders, cronies, and special interests,” Sasse added.
SEE THE LIST OF POTENTIAL CANDIDATES BELOW
2022 RI Gubernatorial Candidates - Look Who Is Looking to Run - August 2019
DEMOCRAT
Jorge Elorza
Mayor of Providence
He won a big re-election in 2018 and looked to be a formidable candidate for the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial primary, but then things began to fall apart.
Providence Schools are being taken over by the state. Elorza's role in the Providence Schools is becoming a national story.
Crime is rampant, violent and random.
Providence mayors have not done well running for governor.
Providence mayors have to face the critique that they will "do for Rhode Island what they did for Providence."
DEMOCRAT
Joseph Paolino
Former Mayor of Providence and Developer
Paolino is making a lot of noise about a potential run in the Democratic primary.
As a developer, he has been on a buying and building spree.
He has been an advocate of combatting panhandling and a harsh critic of sitting Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza.
He can raise money and can self-fund.
DEMOCRAT
Nicholas Mattiello
Speaker of the House, Lawyer
This is one of the surprise names emerging.
Two members of the State House inner circle confirmed to GoLocal that Mattiello is considering a run for Governor in 2022.
The thinking in the Mattiello camp is that a crowded Democratic primary with 4 to 8 potential candidates -- many who may be hard left-leaning progressives -- creates a significant opening running as a pragmatist centrist Democrat.
He can rightfully claim he got rid of the car tax - not a bad issue to run on.
DEMOCRAT
Seth Magaziner
General Treasurer
The term-limited General Treasurer is all but announced as a candidate for governor.
He is sitting on $654,751.80 and raised more than $87,000 in the second quarter of this year.
His record as a money manager is middle of the road in comparison to his peers nationally. His father's ties to Jeffrey Epstein and refusal to answer questions create a complexity. The senior Magaziner traveled extensively with Epstein on the convicted sexual abuser private jet.
DEMOCRAT
Aaron Regunberg
Former State Representative and Law Student
The ultra-progressive Democrat former East Side State Representative ran a highly competitive campaign in the primary for Lt. Governor in 2018. He has a progressive base.
Since his loss, he worked for Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza and has been active in progressive issues. He has been deeply involved in the protests at the Wyatt Detention Center.
The trust-funder has come under criticism for being too far left. He is also looking at a return run for Lt. Governor or Mayor of Providence in 2022.
DEMOCRAT
Nellie Gorbea
Secretary of State
She is popular and could be the only Democratic woman in a crowded Democratic primary. With a solid Latino-base, she could be formidable.
In the 2nd quarter, she raised $58,000, but only has $101,000 cash on hand.
Questions are emerging about her management of the voting rolls and election security.
DEMOCRAT
Daniel McKee
Lt. Governor
He won a hard-fought battle against Aaron Regunberg and solidified he northern RI-base.
He has strong support from the Blackstone Valley mayors.
McKee has focused on such areas as education reform and taking on National Grid -- two issues that look pretty good right now.
Like Gorbea, there are questions about his fundraising abilities. He has only $24,755.88 cash on hand.
DEMOCRAT
Joseph Shekarchi
House Majority Leader
The Warwick State Representative is de-facto blocked by Mattiello for the top leadership position in the House.
Shekarchi is sitting on $1,003,952.92 and can raise more.
Just the war chest alone makes him viable.
The conventional wisdom is if Mattiello stays Speaker, Shekarchi will look at General Treasurer or Governor.
DEMOCRAT
Jim Langevin
Congressman
If Rhode Island loses a seat in the House of Representatives expect Langevin to consider a run for Governor.
He is personally popular, but not a favorite of progressives.
He will have 20 years in the House -- and will have to come up with an explanation of why he has been unable to pass any major legislation in two decades.
In addition, he will have to articulate a vision for Rhode Island -- that is different than being a backbencher in Congress.
GOP
Ken Block
Businessman
He has been relentless on issues like election security, Warwick's finances (he lives in Barrington) and municipal pension issues.
Don't forget line-item veto.
Awfully active for a private citizen.
He has run and lost as a Moderate Party candidate and as a Republican. Block lost to Fung is the GOP primary in 2014.
He can self-finance.
GOP
Allan Fung
Mayor of Cranston
Fung has been around a long time. Twice he has run and lost for governor and was unable to articulate a clear vision for Rhode Island.
When Governor Raimondo's campaign painted Cranston as the worst city in America, Fung seemed unable to respond.
“In politics, it is two strikes and you are out. I doubt whether a third try for Allan Fung will be productive. He will have to overcome perceptions that he can’t win statewide,” Darrell West of the Brookings Institute tells GoLocal.
GOP
Blake Filippi
House Minority Leader
Filippi looks to be the future of the Republican party.
He has earned the respect of both sides of the aisle as the minority leader of the House in 2019.
Can you be governor running with a home base in Block Island?
Maybe -- he grew up in the Blackstone Valley and his family-owned The Celebrity Club, a famous desegregated jazz club in Providence.
GOP
Jeff Grybowski
Businessman
Jeff Grybowski is the man most responsible for building Deepwater Wind into a national model for offshore wind.
He cashed out when Orsted purchased the company.
Potentially, he could run as an independent.
He could claim both government experience (top staffer to Governor Don Carcieri) and proven business experience.
He has a big network and he too can self-fund.
