A Week of Political Ups and Downs -- Sunday Political Brunch August 26, 2018
Mark Curtis, GoLocalProv Contributor
A Week of Political Ups and Downs -- Sunday Political Brunch August 26, 2018
“The Manafort Factor” – The conviction of former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort on Tuesday is a toss-up. Yes, Manafort was convicted on eight counts including bank fraud, but none of it had anything to do with the 2016 presidential campaign. It all had to do with Manafort’s business relationships with Russian and allied entities. Whether you like the president or not, there is still no proof of collusion. That’s not opinion, it’s fact. If there is a contrary viewpoint, please connect the dots. For now, Manafort’s misdeeds happened well before he was campaign chair.
“Cohen Goin’” – On the other hand, the guilty plea by former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen Tuesday may prove a lot more problematic for the White House. Did he pay hush money to two women claiming affairs with then candidate-Trump? (Apparently someone did) Does it matter if it happened before he took office? (Yes) And does it matter if campaign versus personal funds were used? (Yes). Again, if there’s real smoke and fire here, prosecutors need to lay out the road map ahead.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST“Morrisey or Bust” – The main reason for President Trump coming to West Virginia was to campaign for Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R-WV), who is the nominee for U.S. Senate to face incumbent Senator Joe Manchin, (D-WV). While the President spoke for about 75 minutes total, only about 10 to 15 minutes was devoted to Morrisey and the senate race. Will that hurt? Said Trump of Morrisey, "A tremendous gentleman, I got to know him during the campaign.... He doesn't stop. He's going to fight for you like no one has ever fought for West Virginia." Morrisey responded, "When I get to the U.S. Senate I'm going to be a strong ally of President Trump." Which party controls the U.S. Senate my hinge on this race.
“Manchin” – Sen. Joe Manchin, (D-WV) is clearly the most conservative Democrat in the U.S. Senate, voting with President Trump 60 percent of the time. He, in fact, came out in support of President Trump’s newly announced Affordable Clean Energy Plan which was unveiled at the rally. Manchin also voted for Justice Neil Gorsuch on the U.S Supreme Court, But Manchin has reservations about the future of Obama Care, worrying Attorney General Morrisey will lead to its demise. "He basically has sued the federal government to take away insurance for 800,000 West Virginians who have pre-exiting conditions. The suit he has entered will do that. It destroys basically the Affordable Care Act which we have," said Sen. Joe Manchin, (D) West Virginia.
“Duncan Hunter – Chris Collins” – Republicans have some increased worries this week. Rep. Duncan Hunter, Jr., (R-CA) and his wife were indicted on accusations of using campaign contributions for personal use – a big no-no. Last week it was Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) indicted on charges related to insider trading and his son. Both Congressman may have to abdicate, so the party can try to save the seats. On the plus side for the GOP, these are two of the most reliably red districts in two of the nation’s bluest states. On the other hand, Democrats are trying to sow the seeds of discontent and there is some real “red” meat here, pardon the pun. Can they flip?
“Trump v Sessions” – Boy this one is getting ugly. President Trump continuing to do battle with his Attorney General Jeff Sessions. The President is still angry Sessions recused himself from the Russian meddling investigation saying, “I put in an attorney general that never took control of the Justice Department. Jeff Sessions never took control of the Justice Department.” That prompted Sessions to fire back with this statement, “While I am Attorney General, the actions of the Department of Justice will not be improperly influenced by political considerations. I demand the highest standards, and where they are not met, I take action.” Ouch!
“My Perspective” – I know Jeff Sessions from covering him when he was U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Alabama in the 1980s when I was a reporter in the Mobile-Pensacola TV market. He’s tough, and he gives no ground. I think he’s safe. As we learned from Richard Nixon, firing an Attorney General can backfire. Janet Reno really got under the skin of President Bill Clinton, but she didn’t dare be dismissed. The same goes for Trump. Canning Sessions and others would be another Saturday Night Massacre, and that would not bode well for Trump, just as it blew up on Nixon.
What are your thoughts on this week’s developments? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.
Mark Curtis Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia and surrounding states.
GoLocal Statewide Poll - Conducted by Harvard's Della Volpe - June, 2018
Registered Voters
Q1: Are you registered to vote in Rhode Island?
Total 501 100%
Yes: 501 100%
No: 0 0%
Don't know: 0 0%
Gender
Q2: Are you ...
Total
Total: 100%
Male: 44%
Female: 56%
Age
Q3: In which age group are you?
18-24: 7%
25-34: 16%
35-44: 15%
45-54: 20%
55-64: 17%
65+ 25%
Political Party
Q4: When it comes to voting, do you consider yourself to be affiliated with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Moderate, or Unaffiliated with a major party?
Democrat: 38%
Republican:14%
Moderate: 6%
Unaffiliated: 39%
Don't know/Refused: 3%
Likely Voters
Q5: Next year, in November of 2018, there will be a statewide general election for Governor and many other state offices. How likely is it that you will vote in this election? Will you definitely be voting, will you probably be voting, are you 50-50...
Definitely be voting.............................. 81%
Probably be voting............................... 19%
All others............................................. 0%
Top Issue
Q6: What would you say is the number one problem facing Rhode Island that you would like the Governor to address?
Taxes.................................................. .18%
Jobs and economy.............................. 16%
State budget.........................................11%
Roads...................................................10%
Education............................................ 8%
Healthcare........................................... 5%
Corruption/Public integrity.................... 4%
Immigration.......................................... 4%
Housing.............................................. ..2%
Governor............................................. ..2%
Homelessness.......................................1%
Other.. ............................................... 14%
Don’t know.......................................... 6%
Direction
Q7: In general, would you say things in Rhode Island are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?
Right track........................................... 19%
Wrong track......................................... 36%
Mixed.................................................. 45%
Optimism
Q8: Thinking ahead several years, is your outlook about Rhode Island more optimistic or more pessimistic?
Optimistic............................................ 52%
Pessimistic...........................................48%
Finances
Q9: Over the last three years or so, has your family's financial situation improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?
Changed for the better......................... 24%
Changed for the worse......................... 33%
Not changed at all................................ 43%
Governor
Q10: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for her: 9%
There is a good chance I will vote for her: 19%
It is possible that I vote for her: 24%
It is unlikely that I will vote for her: 18%
I will never vote for her: 31%
Governor
Q11: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Matt Brown, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 4%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 8%
It is possible that I vote for him: 40%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 30%
I will never vote for him: 17%
Governor
Q12: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Spencer Dickinson, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 7%
It is possible that I vote for him: 37%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 35%
I will never vote for him: 18%
Governor
Q13: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Paul Roselli, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 2%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 7%
It is possible that I vote for him: 35%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 37%
I will never vote for him: 19%
Governor
Q14: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Allan Fung, a Republican
I am sure to vote for him: 7%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 18%
It is possible that I vote for him: 28%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 25%
I will never vote for him: 21%
Governor
Q15: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Patricia Morgan, a Republican
I am sure to vote for her: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for her.: 9%
It is possible that I vote for her: 32%
It is unlikely that I will vote for her: 35%
I will never vote for her: 21%
Governor
Q16: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Giovanni Feroce, a Republican
I am sure to vote for him: 2%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 5%
It is possible that I vote for him: 24%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 35%
I will never vote for him: 34%
Governor
Q17: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Luis-Daniel Muñoz, an Independent
I am sure to vote for him: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 6%
It is possible that I vote for him: 33%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 38%
I will never vote for him: 21%
Governor
Q18: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Joe Trillo, an Independent
I am sure to vote for him: 1%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 8%
It is possible that I vote for him: 37%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 34%
I will never vote for him: 19%
Governor
Q20: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Allan Fung and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Allan Fung, a Republican..................... 33%
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat................ 33%
Joe Trillo, and Independent.................. 16%
Don't know 18%
Governor
Q20: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Patricia Morgan and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat................ 39%
Patricia Morgan, a Republican............. 20%
Joe Trillo, an Independent................... 19%
Don't know ......................................... 22%
Governor
Q21: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Matt Brown, Republican Allan Fung and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Allan Fung, a Republican..................... 35%
Matt Brown, a Democrat...................... 25%
Joe Trillo, an Independent.................... 14%
Don't know .......................................... 27%
Governor
Q22: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Matt Brown, Republican Patricia Morgan and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Matt Brown, a Democrat...................... 30%
Patricia Morgan, a Republican............. 20%
Joe Trillo, an Independent.................... 18%
Don't know .......................................... 33%
U.S. Senate
Q23: If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Robert Nardolillo - for whom would you vote?
Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat........... 53%
Robert 'Bobby' Nardolillo, a Republican.. 31%
Don't know............................................... 16%
U.S. Senate
Q24: If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Robert Flanders - for whom would you vote?
Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat........ 54%
Robert Flanders, a Republican............. 32%
Don't know.......................................... 14%
Schools
Q25: If there was an election today, would you vote to approve or reject issuing $250 million in financing supported general obligation bonds to repair Rhode Island's deteriorating school buildings and bring them up to minimum standards called "warm, safe and dry"?
Net: Approve...................................... 74%
Definitely approve............................... 36%
Probably approve................................ 38%
Net: Reject......................................... 17%
Probably reject.................................... 9%
Definitely reject.................................... 7%
Don't know.......................................... 9%
PawSox
Q26: The Rhode Island General Assembly is in the process of negotiating a $40 million public financing deal with the Pawtucket Red Sox for a new stadium, hoping to bring a vote before the House and Senate this summer.
In general, do you favor or oppose the use of public funds to help finance a new stadium for the Pawtucket Red Sox?
Net: Favor.......................................... 33%
Strongly favor...................................... 13%
Somewhat favor.................................. 21%
Net: Oppose....................................... 59%
Somewhat oppose.............................. 21%
Strongly oppose.................................. 38%
Don't know.......................................... 8%
Fane Tower
Q27: The City of Providence and the state of Rhode Island are considering a proposal by New York developer Jason Fane to build a 46-story luxury residence tower in Providence, next to a public riverfront park. The developer will invest $250 to $300 million of his own funds. The project is called the Hope Point Tower, it would be 170-feet taller than the Superman building and would require waiving height restrictions and the use of state tax credits.
In general, do you favor or oppose development of the Hope Point Tower?
Net: Favor.......................................... 39%
Strongly favor...................................... 13%
Somewhat favor.................................. 27%
Net: Oppose....................................... 50%
Somewhat oppose.............................. 23%
Strongly oppose.................................. 27%
Don't know.......................................... 11%
Elorza/Traffic Cameras
Q28: How would you rate the job that Mayor Jorge Elorza has done managing issues related to speed cameras in Providence?
Net: Excellent/Good.......................... 26%
Excellent............................................. 6%
Good................................................... 20%
Net: Fair/Poor.................................... 74%
Fair...................................................... 29%
Poor.................................................... 45%
Q29: Since it was launched in 2016, UHIP -- the Rhode Island program designed to improve customer service for those who receive federal benefits -- has run into significant problems, including long lines, cost overruns, lost applications, over- and under-charging of patients and families.
Based on what you know at this time, what percent of blame for this do you assign to:
Deloitte, the consulting company who
produced the system........................... 53.3%
Governor Gina Raimondo, who has
been governor since the system
launch in September 2016................... 47.1%
NIMBYism
Q30: Presently, there are local groups opposing the development of a natural gas facility in Burrillville, solar projects in Exeter, a LNG facility in Providence and wind projects in North Kingstown.
Some people say that it is important for local groups to play a role in opposition of projects like these that could be dangerous or harmful to citizens;
Others say that local groups have gone too far to the detriment of the state’s long-term energy needs.
Which statement comes closer to your own view?
Local groups play an important role...... 46%
Local groups have gone too far............. 31%
Not sure................................................. 24%
Corruption
Q31: Compared to other states, do you think there is:
More political corruption in RI................. 63%
Less political corruption in RI................ 7%
About the same level as other states..... 30%
Income
Q32: The next question is about the total income of YOUR HOUSEHOLD for the PAST 12 MONTHS. Please include your income PLUS the income of all members living in your household (including cohabiting partners and armed forces members living at home).
$50,000 or less.................................... 33%
More $50,000 but less than $75,000..... 18%
More $75,000 but less than $100,000... 16%
More $100,000 but less than $150,000. 13%
$150,000 or more................................ 10%
Don't know/refused.............................. 10%
Ethnicity
Q33: What particular ethnic group or nationality - such as English, French, Italian, Irish, Latino, Jewish, African American, and so forth - do you consider yourself a part of or feel closest to?
Net: White, Non-Hispanic..................... 82%
Black or African American.................... 6%
Latino/Hispanic.................................... 5%
Other.................................................... 7%
Geography
Q34: City/Town Into Region.
West Bay............................................ 28%
Metro-Providence................................ 28%
Blackstone Valley................................ 21%
South County...................................... 10%
East Bay............................................. 13%
