Biden Stimulus Plan Well-Timed Politically -- Rob Horowitz

Biden Stimulus Plan Well-Timed Politically -- Rob Horowitz

With his popular, nearly $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan about to be adopted, President Biden nears a big substantive and political win. Today, the House of Representatives is likely to pass the mildly tweaked version of this comprehensive pandemic and economic recovery legislation, which cleared the Senate on Saturday in a party-line vote, paving the way for the president to sign it into law and to meet his declared goal of gaining passage before federal supplementary unemployment benefits were set to expire on March 14.

The American Rescue Plan is designed to inject direct stimulus into an economy that is still down 10 million jobs due to the economic impacts of COVID-19, provide a safety net for individuals and families that continue to struggle, aid states and localities who because they are required to balance their budgets would otherwise have to implement widespread lay-offs. and accelerate vaccine distribution and school re-opening.  Among its specific provisions: extending federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week through the beginning of September; temporarily increasing child tax credits, which along with other measures in the legislation will cut childhood poverty in half; making direct one-time individual payments of $1,400 to individuals earning $75,000 or under; and providing $350 billion dollars in aid to state, local and tribal governments, $130 billion to schools and $14 billion for enhanced vaccine distribution.

The adoption of this legislation is certainly a short-term political plus for the president and is likely to pay even greater dividends over the long-term. Sixty-two percent of Americans support the American Rescue Plan, while only 34% oppose it, according to a recent Monmouth University Poll.  Even 1-in-3 self-identified Republicans support the stimulus package. Just as importantly, there are significantly more strong supporters than strong opponents of the bill over-all.  “Strong support registers at 35% of the public while strong opposition stands at 23%," reports Monmouth. 

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Drawing on lessons learned from the Obama Administration delivering less stimulus that was needed in its 2009 recovery package, resulting in a slower, less robust economic recovery, President Biden opted to “go big” this time, ensuring that this recovery package packs all the economic punch that is required.  Most economists believe that with the adoption of this law, the economy is poised for a robust recovery. The president will certainly politically benefit, if that turns out to be the case.  Additionally, turbo-charging the already stepped-up distribution of the vaccines now available to treat COVID-19 will enable a speedier return to “normalcy” with the president and Democrats in Congress the political beneficiary.

The adoption of this legislation is politically well-timed as its effectiveness will be judged by the American public not by all of its details, but by whether the economy generally and people’s own personal financial situations improve and whether the virus continues to recede.  These are both relatively safe bets.

This makes the Republican Congressional leaders’ successful effort to produce unified and unanimous opposition to the American Rescue Plan---without a compelling Republican alternative to rally around--a risky political bet. While McConnell, McCarthy and company gain the political talking point of Joe Biden failing on this legislation to demonstrate the bipartisanship he has professed to be so committed to, they have come down on the wrong side of the American public on highly salient issues. 

Some Republicans point to the fact that Obama’s recovery legislation started out popular, then lost altitude as the 2010 mid-terms approached. However, that is precisely because the economic recovery had not progressed sufficiently by that point; this is not likely to be the case in the current situation.  Also, the deficit and over-all national debt were far more important issues to voters then, than now. Similarly, Republican elected officials then had far more credibility in voters’ eyes on fiscal responsibility than they do now.

Just after President Obama signed “The Affordable Care Act” into law, then vice-president Joe Biden was overheard telling the president, “this is a big f-ing deal.”  It just might turn out that the adoption of The American Rescue Plan is an even bigger one.  And in this case, it is likely to be nearly all political upside, beginning right away and growing over time.

 

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.