Conflicting Polls: Who's Really Ahead?

Conflicting Polls: Who's Really Ahead?

Two polls released yesterday painted dramatically different pictures of the race for governor. One poll showed independent Lincoln Chafee pulling ahead of the pack. The other showed it’s a three way race among Chafee, Democrat Frank Caprio, and Republican John Robitaille.

The first poll, from Rasmussen Reports, showed Chafee opening up a seven-point lead over Caprio. The poll put Chafee at 35 percent and Caprio at 28 percent. It also showed Republican John Robitaille edging closer to Caprio, with 25 percent support. Moderate Ken Block was fourth at 4 percent. The poll was based on a survey of 750 likely voters was taken on October 21 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

Just two weeks ago, Chafee had a three-point lead over Caprio in the Rasmussen poll, while Robitaille had 22 percent and Block had 4 percent. As a result of the new poll, Rasmussen has changed its ranking of the race from Toss-Up to Leans Independent.

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In a message posted on his Facebook and Twitter accounts, Chafee claimed the Rasmussen poll showed he was gaining momentum in the race.

But a second poll, released by Robitaille’s campaign, indicated that it has become a three-way race. That survey, done by GOP-polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, had Robitaille and Caprio tied at 28 percent with Chafee garnering 27 percent. The poll was conducted on Oct. 20 and 21.

His campaign said it was the first poll that showed Robitaille had a share of the lead.

“Voters are tired of career politicians and ‘politics as usual.’ This poll shows that my positive message is resonating with voters,” Robitaille said. “I’m focused on running a substantive campaign on the issues that matter most to Rhode Island—cutting spending, cutting taxes, and bringing jobs back to our state.”

Robitaille added: “Voters are looking at this race and realizing that the career politicians who have spent the last two decades in Washington and Providence are the ones who broke Rhode Island, and they can’t fix it. Voters want a candidate who is serious about cutting taxes and spending, and knows how to grow our economy. I am the candidate who will bring real change as governor.”