Can We Emerge from Political Chaos? - “The Sunday Political Brunch” - February 25, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Can We Emerge from Political Chaos? - “The Sunday Political Brunch” - February 25, 2024
“South Carolina Results” – Going in the numbers looked really bad for Haley. The final poll from Emerson College and The Hill had the race 61 percent Trump to 39 percent for Haley. The USA/Suffolk University Poll was slightly worse with Trump 63 percent to Haley 35 percent. To lose your home state is bad, but to get creamed by a nearly 2 to 1 margin is embarrassing. Trump won South Carolina 59 to 39.
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“The Home Field Advantage” – I talk often about the above “11th Commandment” of politics, but it’s the real deal. The best example in modern times was when Vice President Al Gore, a Democrat from Tennessee, ran for president in 2000. He and President Clinton carried Tennessee in 1992 and 1996, on the road to the White House. His lackadaisical campaign in 2000, showed he assumed he’d easily carry his home state and its 11 Electoral College votes, but he lost. Had he just won Tennessee (or Bill Clinton’s neighboring Arkansas), Gore would have been president regardless of “hanging chads” in Florida. It was one of the worst mistakes in U.S. political history.
“Super Tuesday Burial” – All the polling available for the Super Tuesday states on March 5 show Trump with at least a triple-digit lead in every contest. It’s over. Trump is the nominee. The only question is, will Haley bow out right after South Carolina, or will she hang on and then quit after Super Tuesday? Of course, Michigan will hold a primary this coming Tuesday, as the last contest before Super Tuesday. According to the latest 538.com poll, Trump is at 81 percent in Michigan to 19 percent for Haley.
“My Case for Haley to Hang On” – I don’t want Nikki Halley to drop out after South Carolina. That’s not because I back her, it’s because I believe people need to have choices. To drop out after Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina means only four states out of fifty made the decision. That’s not healthy for democracy. When you combine these four states with Michigan on Tuesday, and then onto Super Tuesday the following week, we’ll now have had nineteen states or territories cast ballots. That’s nearly half, and it includes some of the most populous states such as California, Texas, Michigan, North Carolina, and Virginia. More than half the U.S. population will have had a choice by Super Tuesday. So, Governor Haley, please stay in until then, so at least half the populous can say it had an option!
“Haley as an Independent” – I have seen suggestions that Haley run as an independent, which just seems implausible. Haley would pull moderate Republicans votes away from Trump, just as Sen. Joe Manchin would have pulled moderate Democrats away from President Biden. Each would cause its own party to lose, so what’s the point? It’s self-defeating. But sometimes egos get ahead of better judgment. My guess is Haley won’t go third-party.
“President Harris Sooner versus Later?” – West Virginia’s Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is asking Vice President Kamala Harris to invoke her powers under the 25th Amendment and declare that President Joe Biden is unfit to discharge the powers and duties of his office. This came after a harsh report from special counsel Robert Hur that raised very serious concerns about the 81-year-old president’s mental and physical health.
“The Issue for the Long Haul” – It was a stark contrast because the good news for Biden was that prosecutor Hur would not charge him like former President Trump was charged for similar allegations over mishandling classified documents. “Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” Hur said. West Virginia AG Morrisey said, “President Biden’s cognitive decline is of great concern to Americans, especially during these times that our nation is facing crisis after crisis both here and abroad.” Morrisey added, “We need a president who is mentally fit.” Morrisey is in a GOP primary to be the next Governor of West Virginia.
“Kennedy Super Bowl Ad” – Well there was a lot of chatter in this region, and elsewhere, over a Super Bowl ad run by independent candidate for president, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. That’s because the week before, Kennedy sat down with me for an exclusive interview in our West Virginia studios. (As an aside John F. Kennedy would never have become President of the United States had he not won the West Virginia Democratic primary in 1960). Google it. It’s a fascinating political story I’ve written a lot about. In any case, some found his Super Bowl ad inspiring, while others, (including some in his own family, were offended). The ad showed multiple images in the 1960 ads where RFK Jr’s images replaced both his famous dad and uncle, while the 60s jingle sang, “Kennedy, Kennedy, Kennedy.” Will it work? Maybe, but it’s a longshot.
“The Bottom Line” – The latest Real Clear Politics Composite Poll has the race 40 percent for Trump, 35 percent for Biden, with 16 percent for Kennedy, and the rest divided amongst other third-party bids and undecideds. Kennedy, who has polled as high as 24 percent, may not win, but he may prove to be the spoiler.