Experts Break Down Congressman Cicilline's Path to Victory

Experts Break Down Congressman Cicilline's Path to Victory

Congressman David Cicilline may face an uphill battle when it comes to winning reelection this fall, but several veteran political observers and consultants say despite his sinking approval ratings, dethroning the freshman Representative from Rhode Island’s 1st District won’t be the cakewalk some pundits are predicting.

A Brown University poll last month placed Cicilline’s statewide approval rating at 15 percent and WPRI poll had him trailing by double digits to first-time candidate Brendan Doherty. Cicilline, who served as Mayor of Providence until 2010, has received much of the blame for the capital city’s current fiscal woes and new Mayor Angel Taveras has threatened that bankruptcy is an option if the city can’t close a $22.5 million shortfall by June.

Taveras has yet to a point a finger at his predecessor, instead choosing to blame a combination of cuts in state aid and questionable pension-related deals made over two decades ago by former Mayor Buddy Cianci as the reason his city is nearly broke.

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But Cicilline’s chief critics accuse the Congressman of being dishonest with his assessment of the city’s finances during his 2010 Congressional campaign. In what has become a sound bite played endlessly on local talk radio, Cicilline once proclaimed that he was leaving the city in the “excellent financial condition.” Months later, Taveras revealed Providence was facing a $110 million structural deficit.

So is there a path to victory for Congressman Cicilline? GoLocalProv asked the experts to break down how he can win reelection.

Broesder: Democrats VS Republicans, not Cicilline VS Doherty

“The campaign has the right message,” according to Brett Broesder, who ran Peter Kilmartin’s successful Attorney General campaign in 2010. “Traditionally, this seat has been held by a Democrat. And, the top-of-the ticket in Rhode Island this year will have two Democrats – President Obama and Senator Whitehouse – winning by large margins. Therefore, the campaign seemingly should continue down the path of making this race more generally about Democrat versus Republican, and what that means for the future of our country.”

Broesder said Doherty has already begun trying to escape the conservative label by defining himself as more of an Independent, but as a Republican vote in Congress, “he’ll be nothing more than another vote for a caucus with an agenda that includes taking away social security benefits from seniors, restricting women’s rights, keeping children from receiving affordable health insurance, and giving tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires.”

Broesder’s advice to Cicilline is simple: Make voters believe they’re selecting between the lesser of two evils.

“If come Election Day, the CD-1 race is defined by voters thinking about it as Democrat versus Republican – and what Party has an agenda focused on moving our country towards a stronger future – the incumbent has a good shot at keeping the seat,” he said.

Horowitz: Benefits of a Primary

Of course, Cicilline is also likely to face a primary challenge from one-or-more Democrats. Anthony Gemma, a moderate Democrat who finished second in the 2010 four-way primary, recently let his post as CEO of Mediapeel and is expected to announce his candidacy in April.

While Gemma’s strategy is likely to be filled with negative attacks on Cicilline, political consultant Rob Horowitz said Cicilline may be able to benefit from a primary before focusing on Doherty.

“While there are certainly many downsides to a primary,” he said. “Cicilline can use this challenge against a not particularly formidable opponent to establish strong positive issue positions and answer the negative charges about his tenure as Providence Mayor.”

Like Broesder, Horowitz said Cicilline will need todrive home the existing strong contrasts on key national issues between Doherty and himself. He pointed to the fact that the 1st Congressional District gave Barack Obama nearly two-thirds of the vote in 2008, which gives Cicilline a major advantage against any Republican.

Profughi: More Organization

Quest Research pollster Victor Profughi said Cicilline can win a primary by holding on to a coalition of union supporters and Latino voters while also having superior campaign staff to any potential challengers.

To defeat Doherty, he agreed that if it appears the Republican is too aligned with the national Party in Congress, Cicilline will have the opportunity to capitalize.

“An influx of national Republican congressional committee dollars would probably help with that,” he said.

Still, considering Cicilline’s dismal polling numbers, Profughi offered an alternative piece of advice for the Congressman:

“Aside from that, hire a professional prayer,” he said.
 

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