Dissecting the Final Presidential Debate, (And is it the Final?”) – The Sunday Political Brunch

Dissecting the Final Presidential Debate, (And is it the Final?”) – The Sunday Political Brunch

President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden this past week, wrapped up their series of two debates (there was supposed to be three). It was a much more professional and civil affair than their first debate, but I’m wondering if it really matters and am also wondering if these debates are dinosaurs of a bygone political era. Let’s “brunch” on that this week!

 

“By the Numbers” – On Thursday, hours before the debates, CBS News was reporting that and estimated 50 million people had already cast their ballots via mail-in absentee ballots and in-person early voting. In 2016, 128 million people cast ballots in the presidential race. In other words, 39 percent of the likely voting pool already made up its mind and voted before the final debate. Polls have consistently indicated that only six to 7 percent of voters are still undecided. The bottom line, the late debate doesn’t have the power to change a significant number of minds.

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“Moderating the Moderator” – Kudos to debate moderator Kristen Welker of NBC News. She was much more in control of the debate that her Fox News contemporary Chris Wallace in the first contest. Now in Wallace’s defense, there was no microphone mute button the first debate, and the candidates were both completely out of control. Each candidate was much more disciplined this time. I’ve never met the Harvard-educated Welker, though we both are newsroom alumni of WLNE-TV6 in Providence Rhode Island. She was poised, sharp, knowledgeable, unintimidated, fair and flexible in her performance. She was especially good in knowing when to let the candidates chime-in, and when to cut them off.

 

“The Hunt for Hunter Biden” – President Trump did not do as an effective job as he could have, raising doubts about the involvement of then Vice President Biden, in the business dealings of his son Hunter.  Trump really needed a simplified, paint-by-numbers strategy to explain the story: 1) The FBI in in possession of, and is investigating the contents, of a computer owned by Hunter Biden; 2) The computer contains emails that suggesting Hunter may have leveraged his dad’s influence to create some lucrative business dealings with a former Soviet state. Trump needed to lay out his case like a prosecutor but didn’t. He made it more of an attack on Hunter Biden (who’s not a candidate); and less about Joe Biden, who potentially could have crossed some ethical lines. Trump’s missteps make the whole thing a non-issue.

 

“A Political Vaccination” – There’s an old saying in politics (and in comedy), that “timing is everything!” Had a vaccine been approved and made available before the election, it would have been gold for Trump. Now, he (and many of the pharmaceutical companies) are saying there may be a vaccine late this year, or early next. The point is, a vaccine before Election Day helps Trump, but any later hurts him.

 

“So, Who Won?” – In the first debate, I declared Biden the winner, but not by much. President Trump was so rude and obnoxious, that he was the proverbial party guest (or rude relative) you’ll never invite back to your house. Biden, with his childish name-calling wasn’t much better, but he won simply by having a more factual, professional presentation, at times. Last week’s debate I’ll call a draw. Both men were more restrained and focused on their own position. This was a far more disciplined Trump, compared to the bombastic debater we are used to. He came across as presidential – something his critics say he usually misses the target. But as I pointed out earlier with all the early voting, is it too little, too late? Amway, for those who have yet to vote, they are the real winners of the second debate. They got a pretty clear and sober view of the two candidates.

 

“The Wildcard Factor” – I mentioned that we have a low number of undecided voters this year. At six or seven percent, there is not much wiggle room. So where are the potential other voters? The best opportunity for either candidate is to “mine” voters who normally don’t show up at the polls, and there are lots of them. Here are the percentages of voter turnout this century: 2000 – 50%; 2004 – 56%; 2008 – 57%; 2012 – 55%; 2016 - 56%. The margin of victory this year may simply be how many people you bring off the bench to cast ballots, who traditional don’t vote (or get polled). Trump did this exceedingly well in 2016, so can he repeat? By the way the highest voter turnout on my lifetime was 63% for the Kennedy-Nixon contest.

 

“Was This the Final Debate?” – I broached the question earlier, but you must wonder: is this the end of presidential debates in the United States? As a practical matter, almost half the voters have already voted. We don’t need to be debating on October 22, when nearly 40 percent of people have already cast their ballots. Unless we schedule debates in August or early September, shortly after the political conventions have wrapped up, the late debates are almost pointless.

 

Are you on the fence? Can’t decide? What’s holding up your decision? Just click the comment button and let us know!

 

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the six Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and most of the Washington, DC media market. He is MINDSETTER columnist for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.