Don’t Chisel the GOP Tombstone Just Yet – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - January 31, 2021
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Don’t Chisel the GOP Tombstone Just Yet – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - January 31, 2021
The BEST and WORST thing about any election night, is that the campaign for the very next election starts the VERY next day. And we’re already off to the races. Let’s “brunch” on that this week!
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“Senate Toss-Up” – As I’ve been mentioning for weeks, a 50-50 tie between the DEM and the GOP means the President of the Senate, Vice-President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker for the Democrats. So, if Republicans win a net gain of just ONE Senate seat in 2022, it flips control back to the Republican Party, potentially upsetting the Biden agenda. There are a lot of dynamics to discuss, including impeachment.
“They’re Doing What, Again?” – The most common reaction I get when talking to people about holding a Senate Impeachment Trial against former President Trump, is that it’s just a colossal waste of time. There are higher priorities in the U.S., not the least of which is COVID-19. Besides, Trump lost the election and President Joe Biden sits in the Oval Office. So, what’s the point? We’ll get to that in a minute.
“To Impeach, or Not to Impeach?” – Math becomes a big deal in this equation. While it only takes a simple majority of the House to impeach a president, it takes two-thirds of the Senate (67 votes), to punish or even expel a president from office. This week the Senate voted 55 to 45 to go further with Trump’s trial, (50 Democrats and five Republicans said yes. 45 Republicans said no. Do the math, you’d need 12 more Republicans to bolt their own party, or Trump (an ex-president) basically walks away scot-free.
“To Punish, or Not to Punish?” – Since you can’t expel a former president from office, what can you really do for punishment? You can strip him of his $400,000 annual pension. Really, you’re going to punish a multi-billionaire by taking what amounts to beer money? Trump could also lose his lifetime secret service detail and that’s what really troubles me. Trump’s private security detail is a small army with planes and helicopters and top ex-soldiers and former law enforcement. But the potential kidnapping of an ex-president who’s had top secret access by a group with nefarious goals is worrisome. Remember, even ex-President George H.W. Bush was a target for assassination by terrorists after he left office and President Bill Clinton launched a successful counterattack at Iraq. Whether you like Trump or not, I believe it is in our national security interest to protect him from being a target.
“The Office Ban” – I admit I’ve gone back and forth on this one. In an impeachment verdict the Senate, with 67 votes, can prevent anyone - Trump included – from ever holding federal office again. In, short he could be banned from ever running again for federal office. He has made it known he wants to run again in 2024 trying to avenge his loss. But I’m a great believer in letting the people decide. I would rather the Senate vote against the ban of Trump ever running again. I believe the people have the right, and given his past and present history, they’ll make the correct choice. I mean, I can’t see him winning the Republican nomination again, so his other option is to launch a third party, which may guarantee another Democrat wins. That may motivate Republicans to vote for the ban, but you’d need 17 to jump ship and those are long odds
“One Place to Look is the 2022 Election Map” – In a way it’s way too simplistic for me to say Republicans just need one new seat to take control. It’s a bit more complicated. For example, incumbent Republican Senators are retiring in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. Those are more and more “purple battleground states” so the outcomes are a toss-up. The math is not in Republicans favor who are defending 20 seats to 14 Democrats. In 2020, it was the mirror opposite with Republicans defending 13 seats to 20 for Democrats. The more seats, the more vulnerability.
“Ain’t No Easy Road” – Arizona, Florida and Georgia are listed as presidential battleground states as are Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin. All have Senate races in 2022. If they split the difference, we are still be at a 50-50 tie.
“Let’s Do the Math” – First of all, academic studies consistently show incumbents win at all levels of government, 96 to 98 percent of the time. So far, four incumbent Republicans out of 20, have announced they are running again, three are retiring and 13 have not decided (though I suspect must of them will run). So far eight incumbent Democrats are running, six are undecided, and no Democrats have announced retirements. I fully expect most undecided Democrats to run again, including Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) New York, who just became Majority Leader. So, of the 34 seats on the ballot, 14 are in red states, 10 are in blue states, and 10 are in “purple” toss-up states. It should be quite a battle!
“So, What Does Trump Do?” - I suspect he will campaign in states where he is very popular, and the GOP needs to win a Senate seat. Conversely, he will be politely asked to stay away from House and Senate races in areas where his popularity is marginal, if not negative, thereby putting seats in danger. If he helps the GOP win back control of the House and Senate in 2022, he may indeed be viable in 2024. If not, maybe he should just go play to his strength and stay in the real estate business.
How involved should Donald Trump remain in GOP politics? Just leave a comment below
