Double Dip Recession Will Benefit Doherty

Double Dip Recession Will Benefit Doherty

As the Ocean State’s 2012 campaign cycle heats up – in the midst of stock market and global economic volatility causing many analysts to conclude that a double-dip recession is likely – there will be those who stand to gain, and lose, politically as voters become increasingly bitter towards the status quo.

 

More specifically, voters will be more bullish towards the electoral stock of likely Republican CD-1 nominee Brendan Doherty, and incumbent Congressman David Cicilline will feel the negative impact of voters in a bear market.

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Double-Dip Recession Has Incumbents Seeking Political Bailout

The current state of the Rhode Island economy remains bleak, but darker times in the future will hurt current officeholders who are facing tough re-election campaigns next year.

Rhode Island’s unemployment rate for July 2011 remained at 10.8 percent – nearly two percent higher than the national average – according to the US Department of Labor. Also, according to DLT Secretary Fogarty, the state stands to lose $22-23 million in monthly spending once those who have been out of work for months lose their benefits.

The first recession – beginning in 2007 – had a devastating impact on Rhode Island. According to the US Census Bureau, during the recession the poverty rate increased drastically, and one-in-six children were living in a household struggling to make ends meet during. In fact, the state is still 24,000 jobs away from reaching its pre-recession employment number.

Despite these unfortunate economic indicators, if the economy takes a further turn for the worse with a double-dip recession, it will result in incumbent politicians looking for a political bailout.

Cicilline’s Political Stock Plummets in Recessionary Times

Fortunately for many incumbents, they are not facing a difficult election cycle.

For example, Senator Whitehouse – with a sizeable war-chest, weak competition, and strong support – will likely win with an overwhelming plurality. The same holds true for Congressman Langevin and President Obama, in both the Primary and General Election’s.

Conversely, Congressman Cicilline’s chances of re-election are slim in a double-dip recession landscape.

In May 2011 – prior to the debt ceiling fiasco and projections of a double-dip recession – Cicilline’s job performance was at a dismal 23 percent, according to a May 2011 WPRI poll. The same survey showed both of the incumbent’s potential Republican challengers – former State Police Head Brendan Doherty and former State Representative John Loughlin – beating him by double-digits in a head-to-head race.

There’s more bad news for the former mayor. A tough CD-1 Republican Primary would have benefitted Cicilline tremendously, leaving the winner with higher negatives and less cash in a head-to-head versus the incumbent congressman.

However, this is unlikely as Doherty is increasingly becoming the inevitable Republican CD-1 nominee.

Doherty is showing a fundraising prowess beyond what was expected, collecting nearly $300,000 in his first official quarter as a candidate. This is even more impressive when considering the amount is almost 40 percent of the total money raised by Loughlin in the entire 2010 election cycle.

Bad RI Economic News is Good Political Fodder for Doherty

If Rhode Islanders are hit with a double-dip recession, Doherty stands to gain politically from the increased economic uncertainty and voter anger towards sitting elected officials.

The economy is a sore spot for Congressman Ciciliine. According to more than 20 percent of respondents polled in the WPRI May survey, the former mayor is responsible for the major financial woes that capital city is now facing. What should be more disconcerting to the incumbent is that more than half of those who blame him for these fiscal problems define themselves as independents.

A recent Gallup poll showed that Rhode Island voters increasingly identify themselves as independents – 60 percent – up nearly 10 percent from 2008, which was first reported on by Ted Nesi at WPRI. The same Gallup poll showed that over the same period, Democrat’s advantage over Republican’s in the Ocean State slid more than 20 points.

As the economy becomes more of a focus, and independents – a rising facet of the Rhode Island electorate – continue to question the incumbent on this front, voters will more than likely trend towards a candidate who can make them feel safe and secure. If economic security and safety become the issues atop the minds of Rhode Island voters, Doherty stands to benefit as a former leader of the state police with a record of accomplishments on these fronts.

Therefore, if many economists are correct and another recession sets in – and Brendan Doherty can continue raising money and steamroll into the General Election – Doherty should find himself in a political landscape ripe for victory.

But, with a first time candidate who is untested – and has yet to have the findings of a highly-paid opposition researcher become damaging front-page stories, and an opponent who has resources to go negative on television early and often – one can’t predict the future.

Hopefully analysts are wrong and our economy gets back-on-track. Regardless, one thing is for certain: the 2012 campaign cycle in Rhode Island – specifically in CD-1 – continues to offer future excitement.

Brett Broesder is a former campaign manager for Peter F. Kilmartin’s successful Attorney General run in 2010, and also served as the policy and legislative director for the office of Rhode Island Attorney General. He is currently a public-relations consultant for the Connected Marketing Practice at Hill & Knowlton in New York, NY.

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