Can Anthony Gemma Defeat Congressman Cicilline?

Can Anthony Gemma Defeat Congressman Cicilline?

With Anthony Gemma poised to announce his intention to challenge Congressman David Cicilline in a Democratic primary, GoLocalProv breaks down five reasons he can defeat the incumbent and five reasons he may struggle during the campaign.

5 Reasons Gemma Can Win

Job Creation

Rhode Island had the third-highest unemployment rate in the country in 2011, more than two percentage points higher than the national average. While Congressman Cicilline can point to his efforts to steer jobs to the Ocean State, Gemma’s message will be that he has been a job creator for his entire adult life.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

He Can Win Blackstone Valley

In the four-way primary for the open Congressional seat in 2010, Gemma won Lincoln (his home town) and Cumberland. Many believe he should be able to add Woonsocket and potentially, Pawtucket to that group, two cities Cicilline did well in during the last election. Gemma is going to struggle in Providence, but if he can pick up enough votes in Blackstone Valley, the additional votes in the capital city might not cause that much damage.

Support Among Conservative Democrats

He may not like being characterized as being a member of the wrong Party, but it’s much easier to run to the right of Congressman Cicilline than it is to the left. Gemma can appeal to the pro-business Democrats as well as the pro-life crowd. There also won’t be a Republican primary, so independents may fall his way.

He’s An Outsider

As he did in 2010, Gemma can run on the idea that he is not a career politician. He can talk about struggling to make a decision about what to do with his business while he decided to pursue the Congressional seat. He can talk about his career in business and as a philanthropist and suggest that holding political office would just be another step in his lifelong pursuit to help others. That’s a message that will likely resonate with much of the 1st District.

He’s Not David Cicilline

The ABC (Anybody But Cicilline) sentiment will be in full effect this year and if no one else jumps in the race, simply being the only alternative to the Congressman could push Gemma over the top. Cicilline was at 14.8 percent approval in the latest Brown University poll and if Providence can’t make payroll this summer, that number could drop even further.

5 Reasons Gemma Can’t Win

Democratic Credentials

It’s never a good sign when you have to keep reminding people that you are really a Democrat (something Gemma has done a lot in statements recently). There are a lot of voters who simply believe Gemma is too conservative and even if they don’t like Cicilline, they won’t be able to support a pro-life candidate. Gemma will attempt to play the JFK Democrat card, but Cicilline will actually have a Kennedy supporting him.

Too Much Negative Campaigning

Gemma became obsessed with conservative talk radio in 2010, which made him sound like an angrier man than he actually is. However, he’s done nothing to change that perception with constant attacks on Cicilline’s character over the past year. At some point, he’s going to need to prove to people that he has a vision that goes beyond taking pot shots at the sitting Congressman.

Inexperienced Campaign Staff

He has veterans advising him behind the scenes, but his most loyal supporters are often criticized for drinking too much of the Gemma Kool-Aid. His campaign staffers were the only people who actually understood his “dashboard” and his citizen-driven government pitch in 2010. He’ll need a more savvy campaign manager and a broader message this time around.

He’s An Outsider

Gemma needs a handful of prominent Democrats to step up and endorse his candidacy and that is unlikely to happen with Cicilline in office. He needs a prominent Mayor like Pawtucket’s Don Grebien or Cumberland’s Dan McKee to endorse him, but Democrats realize that doing so could cause problems if they have future aspirations.

He Can’t Win Providence

Despite the city being on the verge of bankruptcy, those additional votes in South Providence will not be easy to overcome for Gemma. Cicilline will also have Mayor Taveras standing by him and even though liberal East Side voters will be angry with their tax bills, it’s unlikely they’ll throw their support behind Gemma.

If you valued this article, please LIKE GoLocalProv.com on Facebook by clicking HERE.