Horowitz: Democratic Nomination Contest Remains Wide Open

Horowitz: Democratic Nomination Contest Remains Wide Open

The recent entry of Mike Bloomberg and Deval Patrick into the Democratic nomination contest for President highlights the plain fact that as voting nears, the race remains wide-open with no clear front runner.  While the former New York City mayor and former Massachusetts governor are certainly long-shots, the candidacies of these two pragmatic experienced politicians are based on their mutual realization that the race is still unsettled, creating a potential opening for new entrants.

Generally speaking, primaries-- and even more so the series of primaries and caucuses that comprise presidential party nomination contests--are far more fluid than general elections. Unlike general elections in which party identification and sympathies structure most of the vote, and only about 10% or less of the electorate is truly persuadable, in primaries, there are no party cues, which creates the often-realized potential for big swings in public opinion in response to unfolding campaign developments or new issues arising. In presidential contests, the added complicating factor is that victories or even exceeding expectations in early primaries creates momentum for success down the road.

That makes nomination contests difficult to predict with unexpected results many times over-turning the conventional wisdom.  With 5 weeks to go to Iowa in 2004, for example, John Kerry was badly trailing Howard Dean and several others, yet he ended up winning the state handily and going on to easily win the nomination. Similarly, in August of 2007, John McCain was out of money, had laid off most of his staff, and was trailing the frontrunners Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, badly, Most pundits believed his candidacy was all but over. He ended up riding his support of the surge in Iraq, among other issues, to the nomination.  

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This nomination contest seems even more unsettled than usual.  The initial front-runner Joe Biden’s candidacy remains potent, but he has failed to expand his support and appears unlikely to come away with a win in either of the first two states--Iowa and New Hampshire.  Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and primary voters in New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white and college-educated--parts of the primary electorate where Biden remains relatively weak.  And his uneven performances in debates and on the stump continue to raise questions about whether he has lost too much off his fastball to be as strong a general election candidate in reality as he is on paper.  Biden also is lagging behind Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg in fundraising, making him less able to spend money on advertising in the larger states with more expensive media markets that follow the early contests.

As of today, Mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg appears poised to win the first two contests. But it is an open question whether he can use the momentum from these wins, assuming they occur, to expand his support beyond college-educated whites to the sizable percentages of African Americans, Latinos and non-college whites he will need to win the nomination-- support that has so far eluded him.  He is a very appealing candidate and as more voters get to know him, I would expect him to pick up support across all the key demographic groups, but that is in no way a foregone conclusion. Further, Mayor Bloomberg’s entrance to the race may serve to shine more of a spotlight on Buttigieg’s thin set of accomplishments as mayor of a small city as compared to Bloomberg’s impressive and consequential, if blemished, record leading our nation’s largest city. It is also important to note that it was not that long ago that Senator Elizabeth Warren was ahead in these two early states and it is quite possible someone besides Buttigieg could win in either Iowa or New Hampshire.  Senator Amy Klobuchar who represents neighboring Minnesota, for example, is well-positioned to gain more support in Iowa.

Given that Bloomberg will be the only candidate with the resources to advertise at saturation levels on Super Tuesday, March 3 when 14 states, including California and Texas, cast their primary ballots, I don’t think you can completely count him out. More than one-third of total delegates are up that day and he may well exceed the low expectations, propelling him into a serious contender for the nomination. This scenario gains plausibility if the race remains muddled with no established major front-runner after the four contests before Super Tuesday have been completed. In addition to Iowa and New Hampshire, the Nevada Caucuses and South Carolina primary will take place before Super Tuesday.

Any confident prognostications at this point are a fool’s errand, unless one has a working crystal ball. I for one have been reminded on far more than one occasion that I don't.

 

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.