Horowitz: Impeachment - The Current State of Public Opinion

Horowitz: Impeachment - The Current State of Public Opinion

As the nation hurtles towards a likely favorable vote to impeach President Trump before the end of the year and a January trial in the U.S. Senate, which barring new developments, is unlikely to result in President Trump being removed from office, it is instructive to take a look at the current state of public opinion.

On the core question of should President Trump be impeached and removed from office an average of recent credible polls by FiveThirtyEight shows 48 % of American adults supporting impeachment and 44% opposed.  Similarly, the RealClearPolitics average of polls records 48% support for impeachment and removal and 46% in opposition. The percentage of Americans supporting impeachment is nearly 20% points higher than it was during the Clinton impeachment nearly 20 years ago.  

Since the Ukraine scandal broke, there has been a significant uptick in support for impeachment, but it has mainly come from movement by people who already disapproved of the president’s overall job performance.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

Additionally, opinion on impeachment reflects the partisan polarization that dominates our politics:  83% of self-identified Democrats support it, as compared to only 10% of self-identified Republicans who do, according to FiveThirtyEight. Independents are split with 44% currently supporting impeachment.

While the public is closely divided on the question of whether the president should be impeached and removed from office, a substantial majority believes his actions in the Ukraine matter were seriously wrong.   Nearly 6-in-10 American adults believe he committed an impeachable offense, according to a recent Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight poll. Seven-in-ten Americans say he “was wrong to pressure Ukraine’s leader to pursue probes into his political opponents,” reports an ABC News/ Ipsos Poll.

These sizable majorities give the Democrats the potential to persuade more people to support impeachment and they will have saturation-level media coverage for a trial in the Senate in which to make their case.  The fact pattern that will be detailed and outlined is not good for the president and so far President Trump and his defenders have lost the case that his actions were blameless in the court of public opinion as they have made arguments with little credibility at best, such as that it was a “perfect call”, his actions were justified by his concern about corruption in Ukraine, and this is all an unfair witch hunt.

Tellingly, however, when given a choice between impeachment and removal or voters deciding whether Trump continues as president in the next election, by a slim 51% to 47% majority, Americans choose the election. 

That is by far the most persuasive argument against the President’s removal--and the one that most Republican senators are likely to adopt. This is especially the case for those Republican senators, such as Susan Collins (ME) and Cory Gardner (CO) who face tough campaigns for re-election in 2020.  The political sweet spot is to argue that what the president did was wrong, but it doesn’t rise to a compelling reason to remove him from office, especially with an election in less than a year.  Let the American people decide is by far the Republicans strongest argument.

Given that at least 20 Republican votes would be needed in the Senate to remove the president, since a 2/3 majority is required, that argument will in all likelihood carry the day.  On the other hand, this should be a cold comfort to Trump supporters. The trial in the Senate will amplify and reinforce the fact that the president held up nearly $400 million of needed military aid to an ally defending themselves against our adversary, Russia, in order to use it as leverage to generate an investigation into a political opponent.

More coverage of this set of facts will make an already uphill re-election campaign for the president, even steeper.

 

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.