Horowitz: President Biden

Horowitz: President Biden

The muffled sounds from people close to Vice-President Biden that he was going to take another look at whether to get into the Presidential race reached full roar this past weekend with Maureen’ Dowd in her Sunday New York Times  column reporting that Beau Biden on his death bed tried to get his father to promise to run, “arguing that the White House should not revert to the Clintons and the country would bebetter off with Biden values.”  This  version of events has now been confirmed by anumber of sources close to the Vice-President, a convincing demonstration-- if one was needed-- that the  revelations inthe Dowd column did not occur by accident. The Hillary Clinton coronation, which was always morefantasy than reality, is clearly off, creating an opening--almost a demand--foranother Democratic challenger and the Vice-President certainly fits the bill.   According to a recent NBC/MaristPoll, Clinton’ s support among Democratic Primary voters has fallen under 50% in both Iowa and New Hampshire-the  locationsof the first two contests for the nomination. 

In New Hampshire, Clintonis clinging to what is now  only a 10 point lead against Senator Bernie Sanders(D-VT), 42% to 32%. Sanders’ rapid upward movement is as much,if not more, about Clinton’s vulnerabilities as his own strengths. There appears to be no end in site to the fallout from her use of a private email server as Secretary of State in contravention of Obama Administration policy as well as the continuing questions raised about the potential nexus between contributions to The Clinton Foundation and certain speech fees paid to former President Clinton and recommendations from the State Department made while Hillary Clinton served as Secretary of State.

This past week, 2 Inspectors General revealed that classified documents had been sent, probably inadvertently, on the presumably less secure private server, and the Wall Street Journal reported on a  Clinton State Department decision that benefited a company that then paid a large fee for a speech by President Clinton. The accretion ofthese stories,  along with the absence sofar of a convincing response,  is beginning to solidify an impression that the former Secretary of State is untrustworthy, with a substantial ,majority of general election now sharingthis opinion. Hillary Clinton is also harmed by the fact that were no big signature accomplishments during her tenure as Secretary of State-ones that could serve as a counter-narrative and provide some ballast for an argument that says at the end of the day questions about the email server and the restare minor points that pale in comparison to substantial world achievements. 

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In fact, the big accomplishments on Iranand Climate Change that have come during John Kerry’s tenure make Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State seem small bore---without significant diplomatic breakthroughs.  This may be more a resultof timing than better performance, but as the old saying goes, “life is unfair.” As someone who has run for President twice unsuccessfully, Vice-President Biden  knows that it woulda difficult road forward.  Clinton remains a formidable front runner with a big head start in money and organization and with the compelling to some argument that it is time to elect the first woman President.  And if he wins the nomination, running for what the Republicans will argue will be essentially a third Obama term is certainly no sure path to the Oval Office.

His age may also be an impediment; he would begin his Presidency at 73. Still,  Biden, despite his propensity to occasionally put his foot in his mouth, comes across in themost overused word of the day as ‘authentic’, is considered trustworthy by voters and has an impressive record as both Vice-President and a US Senator.  The tragedies he has endured add acompelling personal narrative that demonstrates the kind of resilience that would serve him well as President. He reportedly will make his decision in September If I had to bet, I bet he gets in. If so, he will be a welcome addition to the race. 

Rob Horowitz is astrategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, publicrelations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issueorganizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He isan Adjunct Professor of Political Science at University of Rhode Island.