How will voter turnout affect the election?

How will voter turnout affect the election?

Democrats are expected to turn out in low numbers today, leaving independent, unaffiliated voters as the decisive factor in several key races, according to several political scientists and other experts who spoke with GoLocalProv.

“Turnout is key. National polls do show that Democrats are less enthusiastic about voting than Republicans,” said Darrell West, a former professor of political science at Brown University, who is now a vice president at the Brookings Institution. “This is likely to be the case in Rhode Island as well. The fact that GOP candidates have been rising in state polls shows that some of the national dynamics are at place in the Ocean State too.”

Recent polls have shown several statewide Republican candidates closing in on their Democratic opponents. The race for Secretary of State and the First Congressional District could now go either way, according to retired Rhode Island College professor Victor Profughi. Meanwhile, the poll he conducted for NBC 10 last week showed that Republican John Robitaille was in second place in the race for governor.

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Disillusioned Democrats

The national trend of disillusioned Democrats will manifest itself to a lesser extent in Rhode Island, according to Wendy Schiller, a political scientist at Brown University. She pointed to two other factors that will drive down Democratic turnout: Frank Caprio’s comment that President should “shove” his endorsement and lack of coordination among the campaigns.

She said Caprio, Congressional candidate David Cicilline, and Providence mayoral candidate had not been running as a team of Democrats. “I think that really dampens voter turnout because you’re not getting party machines mobilized,” Schiller told GoLocalProv. “You’re getting individual candidate machines mobilized.”

Independents will decide outcome of election

But Republican candidates have not been running as a team either, she added, and traditionally, their get-out-the-vote operations are not as strong as the Democrats.

Ultimately, that means that it will be independents who turn out in the biggest numbers. “I think it’s the people who are willing to split the ticket that will be the biggest group,” Schiller said.

Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor for The Cook Political Report agreed that independents are the key group to watch. “If indies aren’t motivated, then turnout will be pathetic,” Duffy told GoLocalProv. “I suspect those indies who have swung back to center right are motivated and will turn out.”

Rhode Islanders have certainly been willing to split the ticket in past elections—going for Republican governors and Democrats for other state offices. But in this election, Schiller predicts that voters will cross party lines in other races, like the First Congressional District and Secretary of State. “This is what you’re going to see in Rhode Island … a lot of cross-party voting,” Schiller said. “Rhode Islanders want something new. They want change. They want more balance of power across the parties.”

Races that could go either way

In the race for Secretary of State, the big question is whether the traditional Democratic get-out-the-vote effort can overcome the movement toward change and reform that seems to be sweeping the electorate, according to Profughi.

Just how effective Democrats are in turning out the vote also will be key in whether David Cicilline beats Republican John Loughlin in the First Congressional District, said Joe Fleming, president of Fleming & Associates. He said Cicilline especially needs women, the elderly, and unions to turn out for him.

According to conventional wisdom, Cicilline has the experience and organization to get out the vote, but conventional wisdom may not apply this year, Profughi said. “This is such a strange year, who the heck knows,” he said.

Polling place photo credit: Tom Prete