In Flux: State Of The RI GOP

In Flux: State Of The RI GOP

When Ken McKay became chairman of the Rhode Island GOP, the Republican Party appeared to be getting back on track in the state. With a top-notch leader at the helm, a former governor who would bring in major dollars nationally mulling a run for Senate, and a well-respected former head of the state police ready to enter the political arena, state Republicans had plenty of reason to be optimistic.

But just two months later, former governor Donald Carcieri does not plan to run, some Republicans are questioning Col. Brendan Doherty's political credentials, and on Smith Hill, House Minority Leader Robert Watson was overthrown mid-session following a DUI arrest in Connecticut.

So where does the state's Republican party stand today? GoLocalProv asked GOP insiders and political analysts to weigh in.

McKay: We're In Great Shape

Despite any perceived recent setbacks, McKay (left), who ran both of Carcieri's gubernatorial campaigns and served as his first chief of staff, says the party is moving in the right direction. As is typical of any party leader, McKay spends more of his time talking about what he believes Democrats are doing wrong than about what his own party is doing right.

"I think we're in great shape right now," McKay said Friday afternoon. "The party with the real problems is the Democrat party. Governor Carcieri was able to win reelection in 2006 when it was the worst year for Republicans since Watergate. And in the last election, labor sold out Frank Caprio and backed [Lincoln] Chafee."

When it comes to specific Republican candidates or his decision not to take a formal position on Watson being ousted a House Minority Leader, McKay appears to be trying to stay above the fray. He said he supports anyone that wants to run for public office and said a primary only hurts the party if GOP leadership is pulling for a certain candidate.

And besides, he says, no one is going to listen to what he thinks anyway.

"Why would any of these guys listen to me," McKay asks. "No one is going to listen. The only thing that can go wrong in a primary is if people are supporting one candidate over another. I support everyone equally."

Profughi: Republicans Always Prove Me Wrong

As optimistic as McKay sounds, Quest Research pollster Victor Profughi says he wouldn't be surprised to see the Republicans bungle what could be their best chance in recent memory to win a Congressional seat.

"Every election cycle, in my optimistic moments, I think that the Republicans can't get any weaker," Profughi said. "Then, after the next election, they generally prove me wrong."

Profughi said so much of the 2012 election cycle comes down to the fact that President Obama is up for reelection. In a state that overwhelmingly supported Obama in 2008, a similar surge in Democratic votes will almost certainly spell doom for any Republican candidates.

"Rhode Island is still a very Democratic state, and in a presidential election year, I suspect that ultimately what happens to Obama in Rhode Island will be as important as anything in determining [Senator Whitehouse's] fate," Profughi said referring to Senator Whitehouse's reelection hopes.

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New Minority Leader: We Need Better Candidates

But while newly elected GOP Minority Leader Brian Newberry (right) acknowledges that national trends always play a role in local politics, he says he doesn't expect President Obama to have the same impact he had in 2008 in Rhode Island. Newberry believes the key for the Republican Party moving forward is simple: Better candidates need to run for office.

"I think we're in better shape than we've been in the last decade," Newberry said. "The biggest problem we have in the General Assembly is we often lack good candidates, and we often lack the funding when we have good candidates."

Newberry, who says he's willing to lend advice to any Republican mulling a run for office in 2012, believes having an "R" next to the name on ballot isn't necessarily a kiss of death in state politics. He says the key is focusing on issues that are important to constituents.

"If you run for office in this state as an ideological crusader, you're going to lose," Newberry said. In local races, people tend to vote for the person. We just need more of those candidates."

The Ambitious (Centrist) Republican

One of candidates that saw great success last fall when he avoided ideological battles was Dawson Hodgson, the Republican state senator from District 35. Largely considered a rising star in the party, the fiscally conservative and socially liberal Hodgson said he believes he has gained the respect of senators on both sides of the aisle and that the Republicans have an opportunity to gain seats in the General Assembly in the future.

Hodgson says because Republicans have so few seats in both chambers (8 in the Senate and 10 in the House), candidates need to pay attention to the little things.

"We need to do everything better because there's so few of us right now," Hodgson said. "We should be the party that is putting ideas forward and not just blaming the other side."

Hodgson agreed that getting into ideological battles is not the answer for Republican candidates. He said many of the problems with the party of late has been getting credible candidates to run for the office.

But he believes that is changing and his goals appear to be as lofty as McKay's.

"Within six years, my goal is to be Majority Leader of the Senate," Hodgson said.

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