Leading Washington Political Expert: Chafee's Chances for President are "Zero"
GoLocalProv News Team
Leading Washington Political Expert: Chafee's Chances for President are "Zero"
"Chafee's chances are exactly zero," said Jennifer Duffy with the Cook Political Report. "As he has proven in the past, he is a terrible fundraiser and a weak retail campaigner. That makes it hard to raise the $100 million or so it will take to run a real primary race or connect with voters in Iowa. And, Democratic activists won't forgive his past as a Republican. His candidacy does elevate Jim Webb, though. I didn't think that was possible."
Darrell West, vice president and director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution, told GoLocalProv that "this is a surprising announcement. It is not something that anyone anticipated. It is hard to see the rationale for Chafee’s candidacy. He comes from one of the smallest states in the country and is not well-known outside of the Northeast. He would be able to bring some strengths to the race in terms of his interest in the environment and civil liberties. Those are issues that the other presumed candidates have ignored so that could create an opportunity to inform people about those subjects."
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Veteran Rhode Island political pollster Victor Profughi offered his perspective on Thursday.
"My immediate responses was to laugh out loud. Then after thinking a little about it I wondered why he would be considering this possibility given the shift to the hard right among the Republican base, but then maybe his thinks that a “moderate—liberal” alternative should be presented," said Profughi. "He could conceivably due well in New Hampshire (especially if the vote gets split up enough ways, though I am skeptical that he would be able to pull this off. As for the crazy Iowa caucus system, lots of ground work will need to be done. Wonder if he could put together the necessary troops—but he does have time on his hands. It is sometimes said that the best qualifications a person can have to be a successful candidate for president it to be unemployed."
Rhode Island College Professor of Communications Dr. Valerie Endress added, "Campaigns on the national stage, particularly for the presidency, depend upon formulating a fundraising strategy that is set in motion years before the candidate surfaces with a formal announcement. Running on the size of this stage is tantamount to big business."
"And, too, it’s important to line up support from local leadership in the early caucus and primary states, particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire. Without a sophisticated grassroots strategy, it’s difficult to gain the sort of momentum that one needs to survive to the multi-state primaries. There are a numerous candidates on the ballot in the New Hampshire Primary or Iowa caucuses who run on a whim (the ballot can be quite lengthy), but serious candidates who have carefully built their campaign organization are the ones who come out of those early states with momentum. In 2016, Chafee would, in all probability, be running against a well-oiled Clinton machine that will already have established grassroots support from 2012, have amassed a steady flow of money, and have lined up the best campaign operatives from the successful Obama run. I would assess the former governor’s chances as quite slim for 2016."
"Campaigning at the presidential level requires a candidate to be highly skilled in retail politics; you can’t get past New Hampshire without making a direct and person connection with citizens. That skill has not been Chafee’s forte, so this presents an additional challenge."
Grading the Chafee Administration
Darrell West
Vice President and Director of Governance Studies, Brookings Institution
Chafee Grade: A for honesty, B for fiscal reform, C for economic performance.
Administration wins: Governor Chafee’s best accomplishment was pushing the marriage equality bill into law. That is a signature achievement that forced him to overcome several high-profile opponents. In a small state that remains fairly conservative on social issues, that was a big step forward. Future generations will see that as a great demonstration of leadership on his part. Another landmark bill was the public pension reform. Working with other state leaders, he encouraged people to tackle the long term funding problems associated with state employees and helped the General Assembly adopt a landmark bill. It will save the state millions of dollars down the road and help put the state on a more sustainable path. He also deserves credit for running a very honest administration that did not engage in the corruption we have seen in the past.
Administration losses: His biggest challenge has been the economy. Rhode Island always is the first into recession and the last to come out, and this continues to be the case. The state’s economy has been slow to revive and lags the national recovery. It is hard to know what he could do to create jobs and lower the unemployment rate, but the fact that it remains stubbornly high has fueled discontent and made it difficult for people to feel good about the state’s direction.
Laurie White
President, Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce
Chafee Grade: B. Leading in today’s polarizing environment is not easy and we should thank those who step up to the plate with the best of intentions.
Administration wins: Successfully shepherding the Shared Nursing Education Facility at South Street Landing, thus setting the stage for significant knowledge economy investment in the region. This was a huge accomplishment, and we extend our congratulations.
Administration losses: It was unfortunate that the early days of his administration were rocky with sales tax proposals and litigation around 38 Studios which had the practical effect of dampening economic development activity. Relations improved substantially in the final years.
M. Teresa Paiva Weed
Senate President, Rhode Island General Assembly
Chafee Grade: N/A
Administration wins: I will leave it to others to assign grades, but will say that it has been a privilege to work with Governor Chafee. He prioritized investment in education and workforce development, which will better prepare Rhode Island students and workers for the jobs of a modern economy. He emphasized regulatory reform and customer service, helping to change the culture at state agencies such as the Department of Environmental Management and the Division of Motor Vehicles. His strong environmental stewardship carries on the tradition of his father, and will leave a lasting legacy for generations of Rhode Islanders. He was never afraid to stand on principle, regardless of whether it was the politically opportune thing to do. He is upstanding and honest, and it was an honor to have served alongside him in government.
Administration losses:
Victor Profughi
Adjunct Professor of Political Science, URI
Chafee Grade: D-
Administration wins: He has to be given some of the credit for the pension overhaul.
Administration losses: Unfortunately Lincoln Chafee has considerable difficulty stating clearly and succinctly what he wishes to say and seems to be overly successful in sticking his foot in his mouth. In addition, he gave the appearance of catering too much to “progressive” notions, and seemed almost totally incapable of working with the legislative leadership.
Mike Stenhouse
CEO, Rhode Island Center for Freedom and Prosperity
Chafee Grade: F
Administration wins: Not blocking the recent corporate and estate tax reforms.
Administration losses: Jobs and the economy. The state's relative near-bottom of the barrel rankings as compared with other states has not improved to any degree as the drag of increased spending levels and associated taxes continue to harm the economy.
Mr. Chafee apparently believes that low and moderate income families are better off surviving under public assistance programs, than they would thriving in a growth economy -- our center disagrees and believes that every family can enhance their quality of life if we can only get oppressive spend-and-tax policies out of way of our people and business.
Pam Gencarella
OSTPA, a "Voice for the Taxpayers of Rhode Island"
Chafee Grade: N/A
Administration wins:
Administration losses: Governor Chafee duped RI citizens when he said "Trust Chafee". His political perspective and his actions reveal a disconnect between claiming to take proactive steps to improve RI's economic rankings while supporting his true progressive agenda laid out in his RhodeMapRI plan. The progressive vision aims to equalize disparities in income and housing under the guise of an economic development plan. Scary stuff. Chafee is leaving office without a solid economic plan, no jobs plan, persistently high taxes that squash the middle class and oppressive business regulations.The big question is how does Governor-elect Raimondo see it? Does she buy into this vision for RI? If so, it was certainly not a vision that was discussed on the campaign trail.
Larry Purtill
President, National Education Association Rhode Island
Chafee Grade: N/A. I hate to give ratings since he is leaving office and won’t have an opportunity to fix some of the major problems we still have and hopefully the new Governor can.
Administration wins: While many probably wouldn’t see his administration being all that successful, based on latest polls, especially in terms of jobs and growth, I do think he tried and got at least some promoting the benefits of Rhode Island and living here. Initially anyway, he pushed for the Department of Education to work with teachers, administrators and others to move public education forward but never addressed the fact that the overwhelming majority (based on the poll we did over a year and a half ago with the AFT) of teachers believed their views and insights were often ignored by RIDE and it was up to the General Assembly to correct the NECAP situation and teacher evaluation. From a personal viewpoint, he appointed me to the Board of Education which gave educators another voice there and that was and is important.
Administration losses:
Phil West
Historian and former Executive Director, Common Cause RI
Chafee Grade: C+
Administration wins: I deeply appreciated his commitment to equal marriage. People who claimed to speak in the name of God were vitriolic in legislative hearings I attended. Without a courageous governor and core of committed legislators, this overdue reform could not have passed. Historians may see his commitment to genuine pension reform as equally crucial. No state treasurer could have secured passage of the 2011 pension overhaul without the governor’s support.
Administration losses: I see him as an honest person and an ethical governor, but he failed to spend political capital in two key areas.
First, he should have pressed obstinate Senate leaders to let voters consider a constitutional amendment to bring the General Assembly back under the jurisdiction of the Ethics Commission. Now that Chafee's term has passed and voters have turned down a constitutional convention, lawmakers remain immune to prosecution even for blatant corruption.
Second, Gov. Chafee should have insisted that the Department of Children, Youth, and Families (DCYF) obtain accreditation. A law enacted in 2010 required DCYF to start work with the Council on Accreditation (COA) in 2011. The Chafee administration launched that process with a preliminary review (2012 report attached) but failed to follow through. As a result, vulnerable children suffer further abuses while in state custody. Thousands grow up feeling that no one sees or cares, and families (including both birth parents and foster parents) lack reliable support services. Professional accreditation raises the bar for universities, hospitals, police departments, and child protection agencies in other states. Why not Rhode Island?
Bob Healey
Lawyer and RI Moderate Part gubernatorial candidate,
Chafee Grade: D. I usually avoid kicking a person when he is down, but I did give him that during the campaign.
Administration wins: I do not know the inside story, but I was at least interested with the break up with Bob Walsh after the NEA got him elected. This could be the greatest accomplishment or downfall, but without the inside story, I cannot tell which is which. I was also very skeptical of the "Trust Chafee" campaign promise.
Administration losses: His manner of governing is more suited to legislative rather than executive functions, and, as such, he couldn't approach the situation from a point that was required. He is a personable guy, just not suited for executive functions. Anyone can be Governor, it takes much more to be a good Governor and stay responsive to the people. It is ironic in a way that he once called me and the Cool Moose Party a party of one.
Photo by Jade Gotauco All Rights Reserved
June Speakman
Professor of Political Science, Roger Williams University
Chafee Grade: N/A
Administration wins: I can say that a couple of his positives were to move the state away from the Studio 38 climate of insider politics, to work with Gen Treasurer Raimondo on the very difficult task of pension reform (whether or not one liked the result, at least they stopped kicking the can down the road), and his sensitivity to the needs of the municipalities. As a former mayor, the Governor checked in frequently with local mayors and town administrators to get a sense of their needs and how to address them. The clean air and water bond that was just approved by the voters was largely his initiative and an important legacy. He also worked hard to diversify appointments to boards and commissions.
Administration losses:
