Let the Political Games Begin in Olympic Fashion – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Let the Political Games Begin in Olympic Fashion – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
“Beep, Beep! It’s the VP!” – Every four years, political pundits are left to wonder: Who will be the running mate? That is especially intriguing because we often know the presidential nominees well. But now we know Gov. Tim Walz (D) Minnesota is the VP running mate for presumed presidential nominee, and current VP, Kamala Harris. Harris said, "I am proud to announce that I've asked Tim Walz to be my running mate. As a governor, a coach, a teacher, and a veteran, he's delivered for working families like his." Former President Donald Trump likes Walz, but for a different reason. Trump said, “He’s a very liberal man, and he’s a shocking pick.” The former president added, “I could not be more thrilled.” Trump and Harris have agreed to debate on September 10th on ABC. Walz will face off against Sen. J.D. Vance (R) Ohio, who is Trump’s running mate. As of now, no debate for them is firm. Let’s analyze where we are at this point.
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“On, Wisconsin!” – Yes, it’s the fight song of the Wisconsin Badgers football team, but it means so much more. I grew up and lived my first 25 years in Wisconsin, so I have a lot of history to share. Minnesota has the “Twin Cities” of Minneapolis and Saint Paul, but you could also argue Minnesota and Wisconsin are “Twin States.” Politically and historically, they are the heart of the progressive movement in this country, ballot box “soulmates” if you will. When Minnesota Senator Hubert Humphrey ran for vice president in 1964 and president in 1968, Wisconsin backed him heartily. When Minnesota Senator Walter Mondale ran for vice president in 1976, the Badger State came backing. This bodes well for Gov. Walz (and VP Harris), since up until now it looked like Trump might flip Wisconsin back to the GOP. Currently, it’s tied 50-50, according to a new Marquette University Poll taken after Walz was picked.
“Why Geography Matters” – You look at Walz and Vance and what do they have in common? They are leaders in the still declining industrial states of what’s known as “The Rust Belt.” In my lifetime, I watched factory after factory close and watched as friend after friend lost work. It weighed on my heart so badly that when I was 25 in 1984, I packed up and moved to Florida, a land of opportunity. The industrial Midwest has not changed much since, though the rate of decline has slowed. Both Walz and Vance know this despair firsthand. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania won the White House for Trump in 2016, and then for Biden in 2020. Now the three states are “joined at-the-hip” again in 2024. The strategy of both sides is similar: pick a VP who can speak to the despair in the region, with their different plans to offer hope. This is why the Electoral College still matters when it comes to strategy.
“Minnesota at the Breaking Point” – One of the most stunning polls out this year showed that Democrats were on the verge of losing Minnesota to President Trump, who has never won there. One poll had Trump trailing President Biden by just 4 points, and he was gaining. Minnesota is one of those iconic blue states that always votes for a Democrat, much like California, New York, and Illinois. There was panic in Democrat circles that Minnesota would fall to Trump. Biden could have still won the presidency without Minnesota, but should Trump win the Gopher State, you are talking here about pulling a key brick from a building’s already unstable foundation.
“What Say the Polls?” – Well, it’s clear the Harris-Walz team is getting a bounce, but maybe only a slight bounce, in voter preference. The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has Harris now leading at 47.4 to Trump at 46.9 percent. That is half a percentage point! In key swing states it’s just as tight. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads with 48.4 percent, with Harris at 46.6 percent. That’s a 1.8 percentage point lead. While it’s close, it may be an indication of why Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) was not picked, even though many pundits (including me), predicted he’d be the choice. The number one commandment for both the presidential and vice-presidential nominees is: “Thou shalt win thine own state!” If internal polls showed Shapiro could not get Harris across the finish line, he’s toast!
“On the Other Hand” – Arizona is as perplexing as Pennsylvania, but a deep dive reveals a good bit. When President Biden was still in the race, Trump beat him in every poll, often by 10 to 15 points. Remember, Biden carried Arizona in 2020. With Harris in the race, she has won just three of the past 8 polls, though they are close. Sen. Mark Kelly (D) Arizona was one of the final three VP contenders but was not picked. Well, the race for the other Arizona Senate seat has tightened. Republican Kari Lake is now within 3.8 percentage points of Democrat Ruben Gallego, who had once enjoyed bigger leads. If Kelly were the VP choice, he’d be expected to be a sure bet for a Harris and Gallego double win. Again, internal polling probably suggested a double loss, and you can’t lose the White House and Senate control in the same place. This is further evidence as to why Minnesota’s Walz won out. By the way, Harris has now pulled even with Trump in Nevada and Georgia, two states Biden won in 2020, but was in danger of losing back to Trump.
“Time for My 2024 Endorsement!” – This year, I have decided to endorse Jeremy Green Eche! Who, you say? Well, he is tied to presidential politics and is a highly successful entrepreneur who might be able to jumpstart our economy. According to Business Insider, Eche is a trademark attorney by profession. Four years ago, he bought the web domain name HarrisWalz.com for just $10. This week the Harris-Walz campaign bought the domain for $15,000. He’s done this multiple times, including in 2016 when he bought the domain ClintonKaine.com. He actually sold that to a Trump campaign affiliate, who used it to spread disinformation. Again, Eche says he collected $15,000 for a tiny investment. Seriously, this guy could reverse the national debt. I am writing in his name!