Raimondo’s Tough Week — Praise from Trump and Named 2nd Least Popular Governor in U.S.

Professor Jennifer Lawless, University of Virginia

[How does Raimondo right the ship]? It’s hard because it’s sinking in every direction. 
Now there are a couple of things that I think she can sort of take solace in, which is knowing that she’s not up for reelection so the legacy here is not necessarily going to be her political future it’s going to be whether Democrats are credibly run a Democratic candidate for Governor next time around on the success of eight years of [Democratic rule] — and that’s tricky especially given that Rhode Island has demonstrated a willingness to elect Republicans as Governor. 

The other thing is if she has broader political [ambitions] and whether it to be ultimately to run for a U.S. Senate seat or if she wants to be a Presidential or Vice-Presidential material these are not the kind of track records you want that set you apart as a rising star.

That said, it’s still pretty early and it’s possible to have a really bad year and then have a really good year, and then have a really, really good year next time around — voters are fickle and public opinion is fickle. I would not be in panic mode but I do think that some clear shake-ups within the administration would allow her potentially to take some of the heat but also demonstrate that she’s got a plan to ensure that we don’t continue down this path.
 

Gary Sasse, Head of the Hassenfeld Institute at Bryant University

Three key issues may define the success or failure of Governor Raimondo’s second term. 
They are education, economic growth and fiscal responsibility.

The economy improved during the Governor’s first term. Unfortunately, as measured by labor force, employment, productivity per worker, labor participation rates, and gross state product Rhode Island’s performance lagged the nation’s.

The Governor should reboot Rhode Island’s economic development strategy. The strategy should place more focus on a productivity agenda. State competitiveness is largely determined by how productivity it utilizes its human and capital resources. Innovation drives productivity, and emphasis should be placed on new technologies for advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, human-machine interaction, and data analytics.

The Governor’s leadership in education reform should address two goals. The first is to clean up the education horror show in Providence and other failing school districts. Second is to focus on implementing her stated goal that 75% of third graders read at grade level by 2025.

Last year the Governor submitted a traditional progressive tax and spend budget. This approach to fiscal policy should be jettisoned in favor of one that substantially eliminates the State’s structural budget deficit over the next three to four years. This is the only in the future for the state to be in a position to afford many of the programs the Governor has promoted.

Finally, the Governor must do a better job articulating a message to Rhode Islanders how things can be made better for them and their families and not the special interests.
 

Professor Matthew Guardino, Providence College

1) How does she "right the ship"?

Generally, the best way to right the ship is to focus on issues that are broadly supported by voters (especially Democrats and independents). This could redirect the discussion away from some of the governor’s defeats and apparent failures. Something like universal Pre-K comes to mind, one of her marquee issues which is not only pretty popular, but so far in RI seems to be fairly successful and fairly well-implemented as a policy.

It also seems important politically to mount an aggressive response to the CNBC ranking. There’s nothing to be done policy-wise in the short term to improve that. But continuing to make the case for her economic development approach in terms that appeal to voters can help. Deflecting blame to her opponents in the legislature would also be politically wise. Point to the mandate of sorts she got last fall – in a state without a lot of political consensus, the governor did easily win a majority.

2) Does the Governor need to hit the reboot for her agenda?
 

I’m not sure it would be politically wise to try to substantially change her agenda at this point – a big shift runs the risk of seeming inauthentic and flip-flopping. It’s more about re-framing the discussion to boost the governor’s public standing and put more pressure on the legislature. Given the tricky politics in the statehouse, that’s no easy task.

Some bad news items have been clear political defeats that may not be reasonably attributed to her administration alone. The Providence education report, of course, was truly appalling. However, we all know the schools have been a really, really serious problem for a long time, and there seems to be plenty of blame to go around. But fairly or not, in politics blame usually rises to the top.

3) Does she need to shake up her team?

The only good reason to change advisors here would be if there’s evidence their missteps were significantly responsible for the governor’s setbacks, in reality, or perception. I’m not sure that’s the case.

These political problems seem to go deeper. They have a lot to do with her opposition in the legislature. Beyond the Republicans, it’s about a Democratic Party that is fracturing ideologically, and doesn’t fully support her on a lot of issues. She’s too progressive on some things for the leadership and not progressive enough for the growing left flank. Apart from that, there are the big disagreements about (mis)management and how she wants to implement even some of their shared priorities. It’s a tough line to walk. Winning elections and governing effectively can be two very different things.

Dean Emeritus Edward Mazze, University of Rhode Island, College of Business

The Governor does not need to change her agenda but does need to pay significantly more attention to (1)  improving the primary, secondary and college education systems in the state, (2) creating and maintaining jobs rather than just giving away incentives, (3) creating a better climate for  businesses already in Rhode Island and (4) making Rhode Island a better place to live and work. The Governor needs to spend more time managing her staff as a leader and champion for these activities. She has to avoid "backroom" deals with donors and some constituent groups. Shaking up the team will get publicity but not results. She also needs to work and communicate better with the legislature and the leaders of local government  Leadership in government is more about the person on the top rather than the team.

Professor Len Lardaro, University of Rhode Island

In context -- let's back up -- she inherited a mess from a Governor [Chafee] who did virtually nothing in 4 years. She is only the third most powerful person in state relegated of being a visionary. It's the legislature that calls most of the shots. She's worked around the edges, and the legislature nullified a lot of what she wanted to do. The taxes [she proposed] wouldn't have played well -- my indicators just said while we're not in a recession, we're close.

This state doesn't have due diligence. We do things that make headlines, like announce retraining programs without asking is it the right size or scale. You just get the press conference. Thinks of sports betting -- they had someone look at a mature industry elsewhere, and we saw what happened. There's this constant need for positive and publicity [when] people want them just to be honest -- communication is an area that we need improvement on. If we make a mistake, own it and talk about how can we improve.

Since 1987, we've been a post-manufacturing economy, and the rules now are much more demanding -- but they're ruling the state they way we did 40 years ago, by the seat of their pants and the false dichotomies. The peculiarities of RI -- we do things that might work well in other states that just won't work here.  We're running out of time -- we spent a tremendous amount of time with the Paw Sox, and that worked out well. It's silly what they do. They don't understand.

At this point, our reputation isn't exactly pristine. CNBC is 50 -- but all the different surveys and criteria -- we come out lousy every time. We have major structural issues we haven't dealt with. 

They hide behind the 3.6 [percent unemployment] which is meaningless because Rhode Islanders dropped out of the labor force and MA took a lot of our unemployed. The number of employed Rhode Islanders is well below where it was in 2006 and going down again and they won't acknowledge it. They're pointing to that 3.6% unemployment  -- I thought they didn't legalize marijuana here yet -- what are they smoking?

They're not informed by in-house due diligence. We need to be doing more investment-oriented spending. Look at the Providence schools -- we should be in crisis mode, and we need to reinvite ourselves from the top. If you believe in enlightened decision making, we need due diligence.  But if you like dart throwing -- we know it doesn't work out how they think. We need to reinvent ourselves -- our state government should be in crisis. 

I'm not optimistic. How do we get out of it? If the national economy rolls over -- we're not ready. They're misleading with stats. Our employment is barely where it was 13 years ago. Our unemployment is down by a factor of 3, and that [Editor-in-Chief Emeritus Matt Winkler] at Bloomberg fell for it. He assumed that unemployment came down because employment was up -- we're about 1000 beyond where we were by 2006 -- and resident employment I don't think we'll match our 2006 peak. We have to be honest. We have major structural issues.

I refuse to refer to elected officials as leaders. The next recession won't be as bad as the last one but it's still going to hurt those people who haven't recovered from the last one. 

Professor Victor Profughi, University of Rhode Island

"It is a rough start to be sure.  First, under Rhode Island's constitutional structure governors are always in a weak position when compared with many other states, so it is not all that unusual for the governor to be  found in a tough spot.  That having been said. Raimondo does seem to have an image problem both within and outside her party, which makes her job especially tough.  If I were her, I don't think I would reboot the agenda, but rather would simply boot the notion that I have an agenda.  I don't mean forget about having priorities, but stop talking about my agenda and concentrate on improving my image.  Bringing in some fresh faces (maybe even some not so fresh ones, but experienced ones who have respect) might be a place to start.  And stay home in RI, showing your commitment to the state and it's people would certainly help. 

Although the educational system in Providence will be a very tough nut to crack, it might well be worth taking charge in a forceful way. A dangerous route to be sure, but at this point seems tome she needs to demonstrate a commitment to the state and its people.