Republican Control of the US Senate in Jeopardy - Rob Horowitz

Republican Control of the US Senate in Jeopardy - Rob Horowitz

In 2006, Sheldon Whitehouse defeated incumbent US Senator Lincoln Chafee, then a Republican, despite the fact that Chafee was well-liked and most Rhode Islanders approved of the job he was doing.  Whitehouse won because voters prioritized the national importance of providing a check on an unpopular President George W. Bush by Democrats gaining control of the US Senate over what they viewed as Chafee’s good work.

Since 2006, the related trends of the nationalization of congressional elections and partisan polarization have accelerated. This in a nutshell explains why Republican control of the US Senate with election day only a week away is in major jeopardy . Republican Senate candidates’ political fortunes are tied to President Trump whose low job approval is providing fierce headwinds for incumbent Republican Senators in competitive races.

The fact that Trump is on the ballot with these Senators makes the job of demonstrating at least some independence from the president without losing the votes of his most vociferous supporters especially difficult. It is also an open question, given the Chafee example, along with many more recent examples, even if one succeeds in that mission, how much good it would do. Recent elections provide few cases of widespread ticket-splitting and this election is unlikely to be an exception. Only 4% of registered voters say they will support Donald Trump or Joe Biden and a Senate candidate of an opposing party, according to just released Pew Research Center poll.

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 Republicans currently have a 53 to 47 advantage in the US Senate and in an all likelihood will defeat Doug Jones in Alabama giving them a 4-seat cushion. But that is where the unvarnished good news ends for them.  Incumbent Republican Senators Martha McSally of Arizona and Cory Gardner of Colorado are highly unlikely to defeat their Democratic challengers, Mark Kelly and John Hickenlooper, respectively.  Susan Collins remains a decided underdog in her battle against her Democratic challenger, Sara Gideon, in Maine. These are 3 seats that most independent observers are predicting will end up in the Democratic column.

The Republican incumbents remain more narrowly behind in two other contests: North Carolina where Tom Tillis has not been able to close the gap despite his Democratic opponent Cal Cunningham’s sex scandal and Iowa where Joni Ernst trails Theresa Greenfield.  In Montana, incumbent Republican Steve Danes remains a slight favorite, but he is still locked in a close contest with the state’s popular Governor Steve Bullock. 

Three other states are admittedly longer shots for the Democrats. but remain close. In South Carolina, Lindsey Graham has yet to decisively pull away from Jaime Harrison, who with all the money he has raised is not only funding his own campaign, but running commercials on behalf of the Libertarian candidate to siphon votes away from Graham.  In Alaska, incumbent Dan Sullivan is still locked in a close battle with challenger Al Gross. And in Kansas, the battle to replace incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, who is retiring, remains surprisingly close with Congressman Roger Marshall, the Republican, facing a tough and well-funded challenge from State Senator Barbara Bollier.

The Democrats need to pick up 4 new seats to gain control in the likely scenario that Doug Jones loses in Alabama, no Democratic incumbents lose Senate seats, and Joe Biden wins the presidency, giving Kamala Harris the power to break Senate tie votes.  The odds of this occurring next Tuesday are better than even. The most important factor that will determine the outcome will not be the quality of the individual candidates; it will mainly ride on the electoral performance of President Trump.

In other words, next Tuesday, it is more likely that not that at least several Republican incumbents will learn the same hard lesson that Lincoln Chafee learned 14 years ago.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.