Rob Horowitz: New Polling Provides Some Hope for Earth Day

Rob Horowitz: New Polling Provides Some Hope for Earth Day

The first Earth Day in 1970 ushered in what is now perceived as a robust golden age of environmental policy making. The rising salience of environmental issues in national polling, along with a newly activated large constituency of young environmentalists, persuaded then-President Richard Nixon to embrace environmentalism -- not combat it.

In this productive period, marked by bi-partisan cooperation on the environment and other domestic issues, the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act passed and the Environmental Protection Agency was founded.

The bright new hopes of the first Earth Day stand in stark contrast to the 42nd Earth Day, which took place this past weekend. Earth Day is now a routine and no longer heavily publicized event -- one that unfortunately reflects the reduced power and influence of today’s environmental movement. Given this fact and the paralyzing partisan divide in Congress, there are no sweeping new environmental laws on the horizon.

Yet, new polling results about the recent extreme weather’s impact on public opinion on climate change provides some hope of generating action. Nearly seven out of 10 Americans believe that global warming is affecting weather in the United States, according to a poll conducted by the Yale Project on Climate Change and the George Mason University Center on Climate Change Communication. As Yale University researcher Anthony Leiserowitz commented to the New York Times, “more people are starting to connect the dots.” Other recent polling, including the Gallup Poll, also shows an increase in the percentage of people who are “personally worried about global warming.”

About 30 percent of the electorate are so-called swing voters on climate change, according to Stanford University Professor Joe Krosnick, an expert in public opinion on environmental issues. These are people with low confidence in scientists and whose views are very influenced by the weather. While no individual weather event can be attributed to global warming, climate change models accepted by most scientists do predict more extreme weather. The result is likely to be renewed and more intense public support for action on climate change.

Further, continued economic improvement may create some political space for other issues, including the environment. Better, more politically appealing issue framing, such as arguing for energy conservation and renewable energy as part of an over-all strategy for energy independence, is also needed to boost chances of legislative success.

The time may be nearing when it is politically possible once again to adopt environmental policies that match the scale of environmental challenges. It is a moment the environmental movement and elected officials must seize in order to tackle the very real threat of too rapid climate change.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.