Rob Horowitz: Republican Presidential Nomination Contest Remains Wide Open
Rob Horowitz, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™
Rob Horowitz: Republican Presidential Nomination Contest Remains Wide Open
Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and former Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin garnered more media attention with their announcements that they were not running than most current Presidential candidates get without resorting to lighting themselves on fire.
Christie, who had been urged by many top Republican operatives, elected officials and donors to get into the race, put an end to the closest thing we have seen to a real effort to draft a candidate for President since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. That's pretty impressive given that General Eisenhower, the Commander of the Allied Forces in World War II, was by far the most popular man in the nation while Christie has been in office less than two years; has middling approval ratings in his own home state and little national name recognition.
While there seemed only a small chance that Sarah Palin was actually going to run, the media still covered her every move and treated her as a serious potential candidate. Her definitive announcement frees up cameras, ink and prime web space for the people who are actually in the fight.
With these two out, the ultimate shape of the Republican 2012 nomination contest field is almost certainly known and the race remains wide open as the important initial caucuses and primaries near. Mitt Romney has regained his front-runner status -- due in large measure to the poor debate performances of Gov. Rick Perry (R -TX) -- but Romney is in far from a commanding position. Several national surveys and a number of Southern State polls have him running behind Herman Cain.
In upcoming debates and candidate and SuperPAC advertising, Romney will face stepped-up attacks on his history of flip-flopping and his support for a health care initiative in Massachusetts similar to President Obama's Health Care initiative. Unfortunately, Romney, as he did in 2008, will also face attacks on his religion as was evidenced by two different Evangelical Ministers raising the issue at the recent Values Voters Summit.
Romney will likely be the focus of the most barbs at The Bloomberg TV debate held this evening in New Hampshire at Dartmouth College. Still, this debate is more important to Governor Perry who, with a solid performance, can re-energize his candidacy. In spite of his well-publicized debate difficulties, Perry had a strong fundraising quarter raising an impressive $17 million. He is still well-positioned as more of a true conservative than Romney, but Perry must raise the level of his game.
Whether the Herman Cain candidacy, which is still short on money and organization, has staying power is still an open question. But his straightforward appeal and likeability are undeniable. And one or more of the other major candidates--Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann, Huntsman or Paul--could still emerge as strong contender if they do well in the early contests.
With the Iowa Caucus now likely to be held in late December and to be soon followed by the New Hampshire Primary and South Carolina and Nevada Caucuses, real Republicans in real states will weigh in. As of today, no one really knows what they will decide.
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