Side of the Rhode: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not in RI Politics?
Russell J. Moore, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™
Side of the Rhode: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not in RI Politics?
Every Friday, Russ Moore breaks down who's rising and who's falling in the world of Rhode Island politics. Here's who made the list this week.
Hot
Linda McDonald, UNAP President: At a time when state leaders, including Governor Lincoln Chafee, were downplaying the Ebola threat to the state and saying the state was sufficiently prepared, Linda McDonald, the President of the Rhode Island United Nurses and Allied Professionals—the state’s nurse’s union—came forward and pointed out that the state’s nurses do not feel adequately prepared. Thankfully, this seems to have prodded Chafee and Health Department Director Dr. Michael Fine to take the threat more seriously.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTVincent “Buddy” Cianci: Love him or hate him—and it seems like more love than hate him—Buddy is the talk of the state. Without a doubt, there’s far more buzz around the race for Mayor of Providence than there is for even the race for Governor, and it’s all because of the charismatic and controversial former mayor.
RI Building and Trades Council: The organization will host its 26 annual Walk-A-Thon on October 25 at Rhode Island College to benefit the Big Brothers and Big Sisters of Rhode Island, which provides mentorship to underprivileged youth. There will be free activities such as face painting, a best Halloween costume contest, and a photo booth. Tony the Dancing Cop will even be in attendance!
11,000: That’s how many votes will likely be cast in Rhode Island’s second most important election. Senate President Teresa Paiva-Weed is facing a spirited challenge from Republican Mike Smith, and many political observers say the race could be a potential upset victory for Smith given the controversial casino issue at Newport Grand being on the ballot.
NOT
Daniel Harrop: Harrop has become nothing but a sideshow and a distraction in the race for Mayor of Providence after having actually maxed out with a $1,000 donation to one of his opponents, Democrat Jorge Elorza. It’s become clear that Harrop hates former Mayor Vincent “Buddy” Cianci much more than he loves Providence, and he’s making a mockery of the electoral process with his “should I stay or should I go” routine.
Hospital Wait Times: GoLocalProv.com’s Stephen Beale reports that hospital wait times in Rhode Island are among the third highest in the nation. That’s not good for patients who display symptoms that don’t appear to serious, (which increases their wait times) but are actually at serious risk.
The Rhode Island Progressive Democrats: The Rhode Island progressive Democrats declined to make an endorsement in the race for Governor this year citing their dislike for positions taken by both Cranston Mayor Allan Fung and General Treasurer Gina Raimodo. How the progressive Democrats didn't endorse Gina Raimondo, when she’s progressive on 99 percent of the issues—from driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants to constitutional convention, to same sex marriage (and the list goes on and on) is simply mind boggling.
Planned Parenthood of RI: Thank God we didn't hold our breath waiting for Planned Parenthood of Rhode Island to hold Gina Raimondo accountable for that flip flop on abortion during the WPRI/Providence Journal debate on Tuesday evening. Raimondo, who just a few weeks ago received the endorsement of Planned Parenthood at a much discussed press conference at their headquarters, said she was pro-life in her own personal life.
Myrth York: The three times failed Gubernatorial candidate, failed to file the necessary paperwork on time to form her SuperPac that is hell bent on keeping former Mayor Vincent “Buddy” Cianci from returning to office once again. This is the same woman who signed a document opposing the Citizen’s United Supreme Court decision that allowed outside spending in politics. Remember: do as she says, not as she does.
10 Factors - Cianci or Elorza
Latino Vote
Elorza Must Win the Latino Vote
In the Democratic primary, Council President Michael Solomon beat Elorza in most of the Latino wards of Providence. In a strange but true scenario, the first-generation Guatemalan candidate lost out to the old-school candidate of Arab decent.
Yes, Providence for all of its claimed Progressive ways is still a City of ethnic politics. Elorza must win the Latino vote.
One Southside Providence City Council member says Elorza may not win the Hispanic vote and that Cianci may have the edge.
East Side Margin
East Side Margin – Can Buddy Lose 60-40 and Win?
In 2010, Angel Taveras crushed his two opponents – John Lombardi and Steven Costantino -- on the East Side. As GoLocal’s former reporter Dan McGowan posted on WPRI.com, "In the three-way Democratic primary in 2010, Angel Taveras won 73% of the vote on the East Side."
Now, if Cianci were to be able to lose Wards 1, 2 and 3 by just a 60% to 40% margin it would be difficult for Elorza to win.
Two factors: Cianci historically has done better on the East Side over the decades that folks remember and he is perceived to be someone who can get things done.
The second factor is that Cianci has the support of Ward 3 Councilman Kevin Jackson. He has a track record of electoral success and being able to deliver Mount Hope votes. Then-Speaker Gordon Fox's survived in 2012 due to Jackson’s help.
The danger for Elorza is the opinion voiced in a recent New Yorker piece about Cianci. “It’s harder to hate someone when they’re sitting right in front of you,” Tom (Runco) said. He had been in the anyone-but-Buddy camp, but he was reconsidering. “Our friends warned us not to get taken in: ‘He puts on a good show, but don’t believe a word he says.’ Well, unless you hook him up to a polygraph, I guess it’s impossible to know.”
Anti-Buddy
Is Elorza More than Anti-Buddy?
The biggest problem for Jorge Elorza is that many of his advisors are so passionate about defining Cianci as the anti-Christ that Elorza has been unable or not allowed to define his vision for Providence.
Sometimes Elorza sounds like Angel Taveras 2.0 with a Head Start to Harvard message (same prss secretary) and other times he sounds like the “man with the plan” – a Brett Smiley lite messaging.
With just two weeks to go can Elorza not only needs to define a vision for Providence, but he also needs to create some excitement about his vision.
Pot Hole
Pothole Election
The biggest danger for Elorza is that this race comes down to a potholes race, i.e., who is better at fixing potholes.
One of the reasons Providence Mayor Angel Taveras could not even carry his own city of Providence was that in the proceeding 12-months, Providence residents spent their days weaving in and out of giant pot holes.
If Providence voters decide they are willing to swallow a little national embarrassment by electing Cianci to avoid annual $1,000 repair bills on their front ends, then Elorza is in trouble.
GOTV
Machine
Elorza’s get out the vote on primary day performed well. Now, it is Varsity time.
Without a doubt Elorza will benefit from a coordinated campaign that is organized to drive votes for the Democratic ticket from Gina Raimondo down the ballot to Nellie Gorbea.
In contrast, Cianci will be implementing his long-standing old school machine GOTV effort.
In past history, not Dorley, not Darrigan, not Lippitt, not Annaldo, and not Jabour could compete with Cianci’s organization, but remember it has been 15 years since the Cianci machine was driven.
Unions
Unions
Clearly the public unions don’t have the impact that they did back in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. Many of the employees have moved out of the City so their voting impact is minimized.
However, Cianci swept the endorsements and those organizations – Police, Teachers, Fire and Public Employee unions. There impact will matter in direct mail, phone banks and Election Day GOTV.
Hipsters
Hipsters
One block of voters outside of the East Side firmly in Elorza’s column are the young, hipsters living in downtown, on Broadway and throughout the West End. This group wants a young, ethical leader that will help reverse many of the negative trends Providence is facing relating to unemployment and economic opportunity.
A recent New York Times story, entitled, “Where Young College Graduates Are Choosing to Live,” featured the cities that are now the destination for the young and educated – cool cities like Denver, and Portland, OR. Guess which city ranked among the worst – you guessed it, Providence.
These voters want to see Providence be on this list of the best cities for young people.
God
God
An overwhelming number of Latino voters active Catholics. Religion has a significant role in their family, their community and this year – maybe in politics.
A 2010, Law Journal article written by Elorza has opened the door about Elorza’s belief in God. The writing was first unveiled by progressive blogger Steve Ahlquist in RI Future, “Now this all sounds very much like the kind of paper an atheist might write.”
On Tuesday, Bishop of the Diocese of Providence, Thomas Tobin raised serious concerns about Elorza’s belief in God. He wrote, “Now I should emphasize that being an atheist would neither recommend nor disqualify him from being Mayor of Providence. But I wonder if an atheist mayor would be in a position to respect the sincere convictions of believers (of all faiths) and to encourage and support the many contributions the faith community makes in our city and state.
So, can anyone help determine: Is Jorge Elorza an atheist or not? It would be good to know before Election Day.”
For a candidate looking to build Latino momentum having a Catholic Bishop raise questions about your commitment to the Church is not helpful.
City Finances
Managing City Finances – Unholy Alliance
The benefit for Cianci of getting the support of the public unions has already been highlighted, but the weakness is that the rest of City taxpayers may be concerned that Cianci and the unions have made unsavory deals which will further adversely impact the city of Providence’s fragile finances.
Elorza can score points beyond the East Side that Cianci’s wheeling and dealing with the public unions may ensure more financial chaos and tax increases.
Those endorsements did not come for free.
Energy
Energy
The biggest issue for Elorza to exploit is to project an image one of energy, youth and new big ideas. The reality has been that up until today, Cianci has held serve on energy and vision. With all the national attention – NYT, Politico, New Yorker, Meet the Press, etc – it seems as if Cianci is everywhere.
Elorza needs to project a high-energy leader who has big ideas and can implement big ideas. Voters know that Cianci has a track record of accomplishments – even for a guy 73-years-old.
Who will standout in the final days?
