Sunday Political Brunch: Who Will Be the First Female President? - September 17, 2017
Mark Curtis, GoLocalProv Contributor
Sunday Political Brunch: Who Will Be the First Female President? - September 17, 2017
“The Clinton Pass (Or Is It?”) – Politics is a “never say never” business. I have always thought there was an outside chance Hillary Clinton might make one last shot in 2020. But there are two things that must occur for that to happen. First, Democrats needs to make huge gains in the 2018 midterm elections. A significant changing of the tide in the House and Senate would be necessary, and, in fact, Democrats would have to seize control of one or both chambers. Second, the Trump Presidency would have to falter badly in two areas: the economy and national security. These developments would give Clinton the “I told you so” campaign theme she’d need. But if Trump is even modestly successful and the GOP holds control of Congress, she has no chance.
“Hail to Haley” – I wrote about Nikki Haley a few weeks ago, but her rising-star status bears repeating. Haley is now the tough-talking U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, often a springboard to bigger political ambitions. Her prominent, hard-liner stance against North Korea has made big headlines. Haley was a two-term Governor of South Carolina, and a state legislator before that. As an Indian-American, she is also a woman of color whch does not hurt in the modern political landscape. At some point she is the likely successor to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and that puts her on a glide-path for a potential Presidential run in 2020, 2024, or later. Haley is just 45-years-old and will be viable for several more election cycles.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST“New York, New York” – You can never discount candidates who come from the nation’s most populous states, which are also rich in Electoral College votes. Keep your eye on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who is – like Nikki Haley – a rising star, albeit with Gillibrand in the Democratic Party. Gillibrand, who is now 50, was elected to two terms in the U.S. House and was something of a surprise choice to fill the U.S. Senate vacated when Hillary Clinton became Secretary of State. Gillibrand has chops, including knocking off a Republican incumbent to win her first House election. In upstate New York, that’s no small feat. Like Nikki Haley, the moderate Gillibrand is viable for several more Presidential election cycles.
“Feeling the Bern” – No, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is not likely to run for President again – he’ll be 79 in 2020. But many people lay his progressive mantle in the lap of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). Warren is one of the closet ideological soulmates to Sanders, but that cuts both ways. It may gain her the Democratic Presidential nomination, but can a true-liberal progressive be elected President in 2020? My guess is that a more moderate Democrat has a better shot, but quite honestly the rule book of Presidential politics was kind of tossed out the window in 2016 with the election of President Trump and the strong showing by Senator Sanders. Warren could seize on that upheaval, disenchanted left-leaning voter base.
“Go West Young Man, (or Woman!) – If Elizabeth Warren is too liberal to be elected President, then Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers might be viewed as too conservative. Still, she is the highest-ranking woman in the House leadership, as Chair of the House Republican Conference (the fourth highest leadership post). She’s in her thirteenth year in Congress, and served many years in the Washington state legislature before that. She’s very popular amongst evangelical Christians, which can sometimes cut both ways. Her best shot may be as a Vice Presidential running-mate, but she does come from the State of Washington, a more liberal-leaning state than her district reflects.
“The Show-Me State” – Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO), is an interesting case study. Yes, she’s won two terms on the U.S. Senate, but her state has gone Republican in the Presidency in eight of the last ten elections. The only Democrat to win the “Show Me State” in modern history was neighboring Arkansan Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. The other downside for McCaskill is a tough Senate race looming in 2018. She’s considered vulnerable, and on-the-bubble by many national political analysts (including me). And, if she loses her Senate race next year, a White House bid seems a long shot.
“The Others” – Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA): yes, a rising star; no, she’s not well-known. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): she’s a sleeper, who if elected to a third Senate term in 2018, raises her stature. If you think Minnesota is Podunk, just remember the names Vice President Hubert Humphrey and Vice President Walter Mondale. Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK): her ship has probably sailed. Her profile has plummeted from the 2008 VP run. I suspect her political career is over after she chose not to run for U.S. Senate.
Which woman would you like to see as the first U.S. President? Just click your vote and thoughts on the comment button at www.MarkCurisMedia.com..
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a nationally-known political reporter author and analyst based in West Virginia.
The Power List - Politics, 2016
Five-Tool Player
Kate Coyne-McCoy - In baseball, they call them all around superstars - five tool athletes.
McCoy, who once ran for Congress, is a strong political organizer for EMILY’s List, a proven fundraiser for Raimondo’s PAC, strong with the media, and is a top lobbyist.
She is manages to balance being a partisan with her all-around effectiveness. McCoy can do it all.
Effective Insider
Lenny Lopes - Whether you’re looking for someone to navigate the halls of the State House, manage your public relations image, or execute a contract, Lopes can do it all.
The affable and well-liked former Chief of Staff to then-Attorney General Patrick Lynch (and prior to that, Legal Counsel to Lt. Governor Charlie Fogarty) had joined forces with Pannone Lopes Devereaux & West before striking out on his own with The Victor Group, taking on such heavyweight clients as Lifespan and online gaming behemoths Fanduel and DraftKings, and more niche healthcare accounts — including the medical marijuana Rhode Island Growers Coalition.
Lopes was tapped this past spring following the tourism debacle by Havas PR to help navigate their way through the Rhode Island waters, and ultimately defend their performance and reputation to stave off their contract cancelation for now. If you’re hired to be a PR firm’s de facto PR brain, you must be on your game.
Two Coast Operative
Matt Lopes - With more than 20 different lobbying agreement Lopes has emerged as a premiere influencer in Rhode Island. His clients range from Dunkin’ Donuts to Amgen to the Rhode Island Airport Corporation.
While managing one of the biggest lobbying practices he is often on the West Coast -- he is a nationally recognized Special Master for the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California, overseeing prison reform and compliance.
He plays with the big boys on both coasts. Easy for a guy who was a star athlete in high school and at Dartmouth.
Gambling Man
Don Sweitzer - IGT (formerly GTECH) super lobbyist plays the game at most every level, with big ties to the Clinton organization that go all the way back to Sweitzer playing a key role with Clinton-Gore in 1992.
Sweitzer’s contacts span the political spectrum - despite his Democratic pedigree, don’t count him out if Donald Trump wins the Presidency as Sweitzer worked for Paul Manafort back in the early 1990s.
Reportedly, Raimondo asked him to serve as her chief of staff - he gracefully declined.
New School
Segal, Bell and Regunberg - These three young Brown grads are emerging as the leaders in progressive causes in Rhode Island and across the United States. David Segal, who served on the City Council in Providence and as a State Rep, failed in a 2010 effort for Congress losing to David Cicilline in the Democratic primary.
In 2016, Segal along with Aaron Regunberg emerged as a powerful force in trying to kill of the Super-Delegate structure in the Democratic primary.
Sam Bell is leading a major effort to re-calibrate the Democratic party to the left the election season. We will know just how good Bell is after September 13’s Democratic primary - Bell is overseeing more than a dozen progressive candidates' campaigns.
Old School
Goldberg, Walsh, Ryan and Murphy - These four veteran lobbyists know the pass codes to just about every private office in the State House. For decades they have been the go-to guys. Regardless of who is in power Bob Goldberg, Joe Walsh, Mike Ryan and Bill Murphy are always in vogue.
Only Ryan was not an elected official. Murphy ran the House for a decade, Goldberg had pulled off one of the greatest political coups when he lead a small band of GOP senators and split the Dems to take power, and Walsh was the almost Governor of Rhode Island in 1984.
Combined, they have the lion's share of premier clients and have collected the millions in fees to prove it.
Urban Innovator
Nicole Pollock - The new Chief-of-Staff for Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza certainly has big shoes to fill, with the recent departure of both Chief Operating Officer Brett Smiley and outgoing Chief of Staff Tony Simon but Pollack has gotten off to a strong start. Following the recent summit on Kennedy Plaza co-hosted former Mayor Joe Paolino and Elorza, Paolino told GoLocal, “[Elorza’s] new Chief of Staff, I’m very impressed with.”
Pollock had joined the administration in February 2015 as Chief Innovation Officer and then served as Chief of Policy and Innovation for the administration before being tapped for the top post. Pollock had previously served in a policy and communications role for the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management. A graduate of Brown University, Pollock currently serves on the Board of the West Broadway Neighborhood Association and the Providence Plan.
The city has no shortage of pressing issues to tackle, from devising a plan to handle the ongoing panhandling, homelessness, and drug use issues in Kennedy Plaza, to the ever-looming issue of the protracted legal battle with the Providence Firefighters that could have monumental financial implications for the city, depending on the outcome.
Photo: LinkedIn
Emerging Star
Matt Bucci - The up-and-comer on Governor Raimondo’s staff was in the mix for Chief of Staff or another promotion this summer, but may chose to take his skills and join the world of lobbying or grab another private sector position.
Made news when he was tied to Governor Raimondo’s ill fated and ultimately canceled trip to Davos Switzerland. Raimondo was going to spend a weekend with the beautiful people and raided the non-profit URI Foundation’s scholarship dollars to fund the trip.
The former staffer to Senator Jack Reed is widely respected. Look for news about Bucci in the near future. Too talented to not make a leap soon.
Seasoned Pro
Chris Hunter - The strategy wunderkind has morphed into a well-established operative in his own right in veteran lobbyist Frank McMahon’s public affairs shop, Advocacy Solutions.
The long-time government and public relations manager for the Providence Working Waterfront Alliance, Hunter is equally adept at the State House, having snagged emerging industry client Lyft and engaged in the hand-to-hand combat that comes with lobbying for the Rhode Island League of Charter Schools.
Election seasons in particular are where Hunter’s know-how comes in handy, having managed a number of successful bond referendum in the state. Hunter is a constant presence networking around town, whether it’s hobnobbing with the Providence Committee on Foreign Relations or serving on host committees for key candidates - he’s the combination of both “who you know” and “what you know."
Everywhere
Nick Hemond - None may be more unabashedly and relentlessly ambitious than Hemond, who landed as an associate at powerhouse DarrowEverett in 2014.
The President of the Providence School Board lobbies at City Hall for high-profile real estate clients including Buff Chace and High Rock Management (i.e. the ownership of the Superman Building) and at the State House for labor interests (RI FOP, RI Carpenters Local Union 94), Big Health (the Hospital Association of Rhode Island) and rounding it out with such interests as AAA, the Hospital Association of Rhode Island, and infrastructure firm AECOM.
If that doesn’t sound like a full load, toss in a slew of crisis communications clients in the way of bars and clubs in varying degrees of trouble (read: stabbings, shootings) before the Providence Board of Licenses. Having so many fingers in so many pies (and some of which could appear somewhat conflicting) has raised eyebrows, but in the meantime if Hemond is winning, the checks keep coming.
Veteran Professional
Leo Skenyon - The seasoned political operative is the man behind the man. Serving as Chief of Staff to Speaker of the House Nicholas Mattiello, Skenyon helped navigate a more than treacherous legislative session which saw Finance Chair Representative Ray Gallison resign, Representative John Carnevale found ineligible to run at his purported address in Providence, and a slew of financial and ethics issues for a number of Democrats.
The Speaker however emerged from the session having tackled the thorny issue of community service grants, and what had seemed up until this year a nearly impossible task, putting ethics reform — and oversight of the Assembly by the Ethics Commission — before voters this November.
Skenyon has weathered many a political season before, having been the former Chief of Staff to then-Senate Majority Leader Jack Revens in the 1980s, and then a former top aide to Governor Bruce Sundlun and U.S. Senator Claiborne Pell. Now, his boss faces both a Republican and Independent challenger in the general election in November.
Deep Pockets
Joe Shekarchi - The Chair of the House Labor Committee is running unopposed this year in District 23 in Warwick, marking just the third election season for the powerful politician-lawyer, who first won in 2012.
Given his fundraising prowess, however, one would think that Shekarchi accrued his war chest over a longer tenure, with over $528,000 cash on hand as of the second quarter of 2016, making him far and away the most flush General Assembly member (by way of comparison, Speaker of the House Nicholas Mattiello reported just over $365,000 cash on hand for the same period; Governor Gina Raimondo had $1.4 million.)
It was managing money that helped establish him on the map as a seasoned statewide political operative — he was the campaign manager for statewide operations for Raimondo when she ran for General Treasurer in 2010. With a number of successes in business and on the Hill, keep an eye on Shekarchi's future plans.
