Ten Things to Watch for in RI on Election Day
Kate Nagle, GoLocal Contributor
Ten Things to Watch for in RI on Election Day
From effective ground game and voter turnout, to voting blocks and special interest groups, to weather conditions -- and voter attitudes -- Golocal spoke with local political experts as what might be some of the things that will determine the outcome of this year's electionson Tuesday.
"In recent years the by-elections have seen a significant dip in turnout of Democratic voters. The Democratic gubernatorial candidates seemed to lack sufficient support without having a heavily contested race for the U.S. Senate driving voter turnout," said Rhode Island College Professor of Communications Kay Israel. "That drop doesn't bode well for Raimondo defeating Fung. Add in the mixed messages being sent to the Democratic base, it makes the level of turnout hard to predict."
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Roger Williams University Professor of Political Science June Speakman thought while there could be one factor working in the Democrats' favor on Election Day, nothing is for certain.
"Regarding what to watch out for on election day, the weather is predicted to be mild and sunny. Conventional wisdom says good weather encourages turnout and higher turnout tends to benefit Democrats," said Speakman. "However, these days with increasingly targeted and aggressive GOTV operations by both parties, it's difficult to know if this bit of conventional wisdom will hold."
Big Ticket Races
While the race for Governor might have two clear front runners in Republican Allan Fung and Democrat Gina Raimondo, the role that Moderate Party candidate Robert Healey will play is yet to be seen -- and Speakman predicts the outcome will be "too close to call."
And while the Governor's race might take top billing, the race for Mayor of Providence, with former Mayor Vincent "Buddy" Cianci squaring off against Democrat Jorge Elorza and Republican Dr. Daniel Harrop, has taken up more than its share of local -- and national -- media attention.
"The race for mayor of Providence seems to be one of numbers. Get out the vote efforts should be the most significant factor as support for Cianci and Elorza seems to be identified with specific neighborhoods. While Elorza's voters may well support Raimondo, Cianci's are harder to measure. They could just as easily lean toward Fung as Raimondo," said Israel. "The ex-mayor's supporters having dismissed the criticism of the Providence Journal, the frequent reference to his past sins by other media outlets, and Elorza's attacks, may well have a different agenda as they look at the statewide races."
GoLocal Guest MINDSETTER Ric Santurri has looked at the numbers in the race throughout the campaign season, and offered his thoughts on the Providence breakdown.
"Watch for Cianci's vote percentage in Wards 1, 2, and 3 on the East Side. Although only 20% of the city's population, these wards usually make up 30% of the vote, said Santurri. "If Cianci doesn't get at least 33% of these votes, he will be facing a deficit of 3000+ votes before the rest of the city is tallied. Figuring that Elorza should be strong with the Latino vote, there might not be enough votes remaining for Cianci to catch up."
Voter Apathy?
Both Speakman and Israel cautioned that the role of the current political climate -- and tenor of the campaign season -- could have an impact on the outcome on Tuesday.
"Another bit of conventional wisdom is that a toxic advertising environment may cause some voters to turn away from the process altogether. Over the past several days we have seen lots of attacks ads on the air, in all races except for Secretary of State," said Speakman. "As a counterweight, we also see the reintroduction of Raimondo's early bio and issues spots, such as the Narragansett ad, as well as the first airing of Cianci's apology ad in which he appears with his grandchildren. A large number of ads are being aired by outside advocacy groups, with names like the Alliance for a Better Rhode Island, and the Mid America Fund. Most of these are negative in tone, and again may turn voters away from the polls entirely, counteracting the intense door-knocking efforts of the official campaigns."
"Although Healy's presence provides a viable candidate for the “none of the above” voters, the constant barrage of negative ads, verbal attacks, and mixed messages make it hard to figure out whether the high level of frustration will result in voters opting to elect new faces or just staying at home," said Israel. "Virtually all of the candidates are labeling their opponent as representing the old political problems of Rhode Island. The constant vision of candidates either shown in black and white, blurred or in tandem with an unpopular governor or Studio 38 does little to make one want to rush to the polls."
Ten Things to Watch for in RI on Election Day
Turnout
Who will turn out -- and where -- in a non-Presidential year at the polls in Rhode Island will be a critical factor as to the outcome of the 2014 election. The highly-touted East Side - South Providence combination for a successful Mayoral run will be put to the test, as the question is whether Cianci can grab any of Elorza's stronghold on the East Side -- and if Elorza can grab enough of South Providence so it can put him over the top. Look to see what Harrop's eventual take is, and whether his cut has an impact on the final outcome.
Unions
After a primary that saw Democrats Clay Pell and Angel Taveras as the public employee union darlings, Gina Raimondo managed to pick up her former organized labor adversaries once the anointed Democratic candidate. Will rank and file union members -- and retirees -- follow suit from the brass who cut the endorsement deals? Moreover, would Clay Pell serving as Education Commissioner be out of the realm of possibilities, should Raimondo win?
"The research on the impact of union endorsements on the voting behavior of the rank and file in inconclusive, with a lot depending on the dynamics of the particular race," said Speakman. "In this race, the picture is complex. Private sectors unions are more enthusiastic about Raimondo than public sector unions, whose leaders are sending tepid signals of support for Raimondo, while many of their members have felt the negative impact of her pension reform. In recent years, in any event, interviews with the union-member-on-the-street have revealed a tendency to take leadership's endorsement into account, but not follow it without question."
Year of the Woman?
With Raimondo leading the charge to be the first woman Governor of Rhode Island, Republican Catherine Taylor is vying for the Lt. Governor post, and Democrat Nellie Gorbea, Secretary of State. In a notable turn, Taylor picked up nearly the entirety of labor support as the GOP candidate while education-reform advocate and opponent Dan McKee maintained a lead in the polls -- with a sizable undecided faction that will mostly likely ultimately decide the race.
"Given Nellie Gorbea's likely victory in the Secretary of State contest, there will be at least one woman celebrating on Tuesday night," said Speakman. "She deserves kudos for a relentlessly positive general election campaign, with warm and clever ads that were a welcome relief from the doom and gloom tone of the gubernatorial ads. Catherine Taylor, Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor, could be another woman to win on Tuesday."
Weather
Sunny and temps in the high-50s -- if there were any excuses not to go to the polls on Tuesday, weather's not among them, sorry.
"Conventional wisdom says good weather encourages turnout and higher turnout tends to benefit Democrats," said Speakman. "However, these days with increasingly targeted and aggressive GOTV operations by both parties, it's difficult to know if this bit of conventional wisdom will hold."
Dems vs. GOP vs. Mods?
22 of the last 30 years. That's the stronghold the Republican Party has had in electing the state's highest position since 1984. Will Rhode Island voters elect a Democratic Governor with a Democratic majority in the House and Senate? Voters in recent history have elected a Republican to counterbalance the overwhelmingly Democratic General Assembly. Whether voters decide that pension-reform pushing Raimondo has enough fiscally conservative chops to fit the bill is yet to be seen -- and whether enough Moderate Party or leaning types come to the polls to make a difference on Tuesday.
Checked Out Voters
38 Studios. The State House raid. Allegations of mail ballot fraud. Millions spent in campaigns that featured negative ad after negative. With an unemployment rate consistently among the highest in the country, and a business climate consistently among the lowest, the question is, who will Rhode Islanders choose to vote in to take the helm of the state -- and who is disenfranchised or disengaged enough not to vote.
Moderate Party
Will former Cool Mooser turned Moderate Party candidate Bob Healey prove enough of a wedge to make a difference in the outcome of the gubernatorial election? While Healey's been polling in the 10% range, it could prove problematic for the front runners -- but not impossible to overcome. Healey might not be the next Governor of Rhode Island, but look to see if he gets a nod for a position in the Governor's office in the coming months.
Cianci Factor
As expected, the entrance of former Mayor of Providence Vincent "Buddy" Cianci into this year's Mayoral race has dominated much of local -- as well as national -- media coverage. As Cianci squares off in a tight race with Jorge Elorza, will the Providence turnout be higher-than-usual in a non-Election year? Will Raimondo supporters in the city drive up the vote -- and the support needed by Elorza to prevail? And who will Buddy supporters get behind for Governor? Look to find out on Tuesday.
Ballot Issues
Roger Williams University Professor has already called the Governor's race as being "too close to call." Allegations of mail ballot fraud dominated the Mayoral race in just this past week. What if something were to happen at the polls?
United States Attorney Peter F. Neronha has announced that Assistant United States Attorney (AUSA) Terrence P. Donnelly will lead the efforts of his Office in connection with the Justice Department’s nationwide Election Day Program for the upcoming November 4, 2014, general elections.
AUSA Donnelly has been appointed to serve as the District Election Officer for the District of Rhode Island, and in that capacity is responsible for overseeing the District’s handling of complaints of election fraud and voting rights abuses in consultation with Justice Department Headquarters in Washington.
X-Factor
With Election Day a day away -- could anything happen in the next 24-48 hours to shake things up? Stay tuned to GoLocal and follow closely, for all the real-time election coverage starting today and tomorrow!
