The Road Ahead, Post Debate – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - September 15, 2004
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
The Road Ahead, Post Debate – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - September 15, 2004
“What Say the Polls?” – There are all kinds of polls out there, but I found one from the deeply red state of Oklahoma interesting. “The Oklahoman” newspaper conducted a poll following the debate with 53 percent of respondents saying Harris won, to 42 percent Trump, and 5 percent calling it a toss-up. As for who is ahead in the national polls, there have been four prominent polls after the debate. The Reuters/Ipsos Poll and the Morning Consult Poll have Harris ahead by 5 points. The New York Post has Harris up by 3 points. But the Rasmussen Reports Poll has Trump ahead by 2 points. The composite of all recent national polls has Harris leading by 1.5 percentage points. It’s still razor-thin in the battleground states. So, the debate gave Harris a “bump,” but I wouldn’t call it a “bounce.”
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“Debate Again?” – I am a believer that the more information you have, the better. Yes, it was a combative and sometimes heated exchange, but it gave me a better snapshot of each candidate. I would like them to engage again. For now, former President Donald Trump seems disinclined. Thursday, on his Truth Social platform he wrote, “KAMALA SHOULD FOCUS ON WHAT SHE SHOULD HAVE DONE DURING THE LAST ALMOST FOUR YEAR PERIOD. THERE WILL BE NO THIRD DEBATE!” And yes, he used bold font and all caps to drive home his point. Quite honestly, you would think he’d want another chance to debate her.
“The VP Debate is On!” – Regardless of whether there is a second Trump-Harris battle, there will be a vice-presidential debate between Sen. J.D. Vance (R) Ohio and Gov. Tim Walz (D) Minnesota on October 1. In past years, the VP debate almost always has a moment that outshines a presidential debate. Remember Lloyd Bentsen and Dan Quayle, in 1988? In any case, the VP gabfest often helps voters decide, “Could this person step in if the president dies?”’
“Trump’s ‘Ruff’ Night” – In clearly the debate’s most memorable (and bizarre) moment, Trump said Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio were eating pets. He said, “They’re eating the dogs. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating the pets of the people that live there.” Even a fellow Republican, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) Ohio said the claims were not true. Pardon the pun, but this statement may “dog” Trump for the rest of the campaign. The memes and photoshopped posts are bombarding social media, and some are quite funny. I don’t think it will sway any committed Trump voters, but it will give undecideds, again pardon the pun, “food for thought” before they vote.
“Vance’s Comments May Haunt” – Just as Trump’s pet-eating remarks linger on, old comments by J.D. Vance could play center stage in the VP debate. He once told a conference, “We’re effectively run in this country, via the Democrats, via our corporate oligarchs, by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives… “It’s just a basic fact: You look at Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, AOC, the entire future of the Democrats is controlled by people without children,” he said. “And how does it make any sense that we’ve turned our country over to people that don’t have a direct stake in it.” Harris has stepchildren and Buttigieg and his husband adopted twins. So, they have children. Vance, who has four children with his wife, has been pummeled for his remarks. It’s going to come up in his debate with Walz.
“Trump Loses Appeals” – The New York Court of Appeals is refusing to lift the gag order in Trump’s hush money case, in which he was convicted of 34 felonies. Trump has argued that not being able to speak out about the case is “election interference” in which he can’t publicly defend himself before voters. Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement that the former president “will continue to fight against the unconstitutional Witch Hunts and Gag Orders.” In his favor, the judge has moved the sentencing day until after the election. Trump also had a legal victory in Georgia where two counts in his election interference case were dismissed by the judge.
“Abortion Votes” – This past week the Missouri Supreme Court ruled that an initiative on legal abortion would be on the November ballot. So, the “Show Me” state joins nine other states in letting voters decide the issue on Election Day. Polls indicate that Kamala Harris polls extremely well among voters who favor reproductive choice, as she does. To many Democrats and women, it’s the top issue. This issue is what political analysts refer to as a “driver,” meaning it is a forceful motivator in getting people to the polls, who might otherwise stay home. Exit polls will be telling.
“What Happens Overseas Matters” – We are approaching the first anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel. Many American Jews are unhappy with the way the Biden administration has responded. A recent Pew Research Poll shows the lowest support for a Democrat presidential candidate in 36 years. While 65 percent of Jews polled say they will vote for Harris, 35 percent are backing Trump. Yes, it’s still a landslide majority, but that’s an unusually high level of support for a Republican. Bill Clinton won 80 percent of the Jewish vote in 1992; Barack Obama took 78 percent in 2008; and Hillary Clinton captured 71 percent of the Jewish vote in 2016. In close, battleground states, Harris could be hurt by this voter erosion.
“Livin’ on a Prayer” – Speaking of religious influence in politics, Pope Francis took the rare step Friday to speak out on the U.S. presidential election, though not mentioning Trump or Harris by name. Francis said, “Both are against life, be it the one who kicks out migrants, or be it the one who kills babies.″ The pope then urged voters to try to pick, “the lesser evil.” So, how did Catholics vote in the last two elections? In 2020, Joe Biden won 51% of the Catholic vote, with 47% going to Trump. That was a reversal of 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton among Catholics, 52% to 45%.
“You Bet, I’m Worried” – This past week a judge ruled that betting on U.S. elections would be allowed. A New York company, Kalshi, immediately started letting people place bets on which party would win control of Congress in November. The U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission opposes legalized gambling on politics. Its attorney, Raagnee Beri said,
“These contracts would give market participants a $100 million incentive to influence the market on the election,” she said. “There is a very severe public interest threat.” The Commission will appeal to higher courts. I think sports betting is fine, but this is unseemly. I believe democracy is a sacred process, albeit flawed at times. We’ve already had enough concerns about election fraud and interference, without adding wagering to the mix!