“The Sunday Political Brunch” -- February 19, 2017
Mark Curtis, GoLocalProv Contributor
“The Sunday Political Brunch” -- February 19, 2017
“Out Like Flynn” – They love to split hairs about these things in Washington, DC. No one wants to say someone has been fired; they always “resigned.” Well, what happens is the President of the United States asks for your resignation, which is a polite spin on saying, “You’re fired!” National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is gone; and now his potential replacement - retired Vice Admiral Bob Harward - says he won’t take the job. This NSA position has been a headache for other Presidents, too!
“Tossing Rice” – President Obama’s final National Security Advisor was a lightning rod for controversy. Susan Rice held the job for three-and-a-half years, but earlier troubles prevented her from ever gaining the measure of respect to which the office is entitled. Earlier in the Obama administration, Rice was the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. When four Americans were killed at a CIA outpost in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012, Rice went on numerous network newscasts to say the attacks were a direct result of a "heinous and offensive [anti-Muslim] video", and were spontaneous, not pre-planned. We learned not long after that there was no such video motivation and no such protest. It was a calculated and deliberate terrorist attack. The fallout likely prevented Rice from being named Secretary of State.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST“A Bad Berger” – To be fair, the late National Security Advisor Sandy Berger violated no laws, ethics, or principles that we know of while he held the post during the Clinton administration from 1997 to 2001. It was after he left the post that he got into a whole heap of trouble. In 2003, Berger was scheduled to testify before the 9/11 Commission about anti-terrorism measures taken while President Clinton was in office. In preparation for his testimony, Berger visited the National Archives, illegally removed four classified documents and smuggled them out of the building. Berger later pled guilty to the charges and had his law license revoked.
“Win One for the Gipper’s Wife” – In 1982, National Security Advisor Richard Allen was forced to resign after a Japanese reporter claimed he had bribed Allen to secure an interview with First Lady Nancy Reagan (a charge never made in court nor resulting in any legal sanction). Allen said he had intercepted a check made out to Mrs. Reagan to avoid any embarrassment to the Reagan family. Nonetheless, the drumbeat of negative headlines eventually led to his departure.
“Why the NSA Pothole?” – Others who held the NSA job ran into political trouble and controversy, too, so why? My assessment is that this is a crucial intelligence, diplomatic, and political job. Imagine, for example, having to be Secretary of State, CIA Director, and Chairman of your own political party - all at the very same time. There have got to be conflicts and temptations galore. I say this not to make excuses for Michael Flynn or the others, but to demonstrate that NSA has been the Achilles Heel of many a Presidential administration.
“The Puzder Puzzle” – Labor Secretary nominee Andrew Puzder officially became the “sacrificial lamb” of the Trump Cabinet appointees. It happens to virtually every President, whether they have Cabinet appointees or Supreme Court nominees go down in flames. It’s a Washington parlor game as a way to one-up a President. Think failed Supreme Court nominee Robert Bork in the Reagan era, or failed Defense Secretary nominee John Tower in the Bush I administration. President Clinton had two nominees for Attorney General torpedoed before finally settling in on Janet Reno. It happens!
“Mending Fences” – Speaking of the failed Labor Secretary nominee, President Trump quickly found a replacement by nominating Alexander Acosta to head the Labor Department. Acosta – if approved – would be the first Latino in Trump’s Cabinet. This was something for which the President was criticized - not selecting a Hispanic in the first place - after Trump garnered 28 percent of the Latin vote nationwide.
“Immigration Delineation” – The President is also on the defensive (both legally and politically) over his Executive Order banning travel to the U.S. from seven majority Muslim countries. While he lost in the Court of Appeals - and may bypass a Supreme Court fight by issuing a more Constitutionally defensible order - he has wasted enormous political capital on his signature issue – immigration reform. Rather than using executive fiat, he would be better served by codifying immigration reform by getting Congress to pass reforms into law. He needs to co-opt his party’s majorities in the House and Senate while he still has them. “Going it alone” is a bad strategy in Washington, DC.
“Why All of This Matters” – It has been portrayed that Trump’s rough start is somehow unprecedented, or an anomaly. We’ve shown here that most Presidents have major hiccups in their first 100 days. But the public and other branches of government have only so much patience. Presidents Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, and others had troubles out of the starting gate, but corrected their courses and bounced back. Trump could take a page from the Reagan playbook (pictured above) – Reagan won as a Washington outsider, yet embraced official “insider” Washington when he got there – to great political success. Sometimes, history can repeat itself.
What do you think of President Trump’s first 30 days? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.
Trump's Win - What Does it Mean for Rhode Island?
Jennifer Duffy
Cook Report
"We don't really know what a Trump presidency means for the nation, never mind the smallest state. One of the unintended consequences of last night's results is that Sen. Jack Reed won't be chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Chalk that up as a loss for RI."
Pam Gencarella
Head of Ocean State Taxpayers' Association
"Trump’s win means that his signature issue, illegal immigration, could have a big impact on RI, hopefully reversing our course as a sanctuary state and saving the state taxpayer millions of dollars. While we agree with his 'repeal and replace' Obamacare stance, we have no idea what that means to the RI debacle known as UHIP. It is not a stretch to believe that federal funding for this kind of system will be off the table so, will RI be stuck with this massively expensive system that still doesn’t work and that is expected to cost another $124 million to fix?
Trump's belief that there is significant fraud in the Food Stamp program and the policies that may come from that belief could have a negative impact on RI's local economy since there are businesses in certain cities that rely heavily on this program, fraud and all. On the upside, we may be able to ditch the UHIP program if there is significantly less need for processing welfare program requests (ie. Medicaid and food stamps) resulting from fewer illegal immigrants and less fraud. While we are ambivalent about his touted child care policies, if enacted, it may force our legislators to revisit the ever growing state cost of subsidies in this area and possibly reduce the fraud and abuse in this system."
Kay Israel
Professor at Rhode Island College
"With a Republican President and Congress, Rhode Island will probably be excluded from the 'fruits of victory."
The congressional delegation will be able to vocally make their presence felt, but in the long term it's more symbolic than substantive.
For Rhode Island it's a matter of holding on and waiting until '18 or '20 and a surge in Democratic influence."
Jennifer Lawless
Professor at American University
"The RI congressional delegation just became even less powerful than it was. With unified government, Trump doesn’t need to quell Democrats’ concerns or acquiesce because he’s worried about a Democratically-controlled Senate.
His appointments will reflect that. His executive orders will affect that. And the conservative policy agenda he puts forward will affect that."
Len Lardaro
Professor at University of Rhode Island
"Well there's a few things -- because there's not going to be gridlock, that's a big difference if it had been Hillary and a GOP Congress, in which nothing would got done. We'll at least get a half a billion in infrastructure that's going to pass which will have an impact.
I think you'll see there will be reduced reliance on government nationally -- and that's where we'll stick out like sore thumb. We've relied way too much on government -- and our government is highly inefficient and ineffective. Maybe, just maybe, in this who cycle of things we might be forced to be small and more efficient for once.
A couple of other things -- interest rates jumped. The one to follow is the ten year government bond rate -- which is tied to mortgages. It went from 1.7% to 2.05% in one day. The point is -- if the ten year stays high, mortgage rates will start going higher -- and in the short time people will run to re-finance.
That's the short term impact -- but then if rates stay hight, that will make mortgages more out of reach. And we just passed a bond issue to limit open space -- housing has limited upside here.
The next thing -- the Fed Reserve will go ahead with tightening next month. A strong dollar will hurt manufacturing. When the dollar is strong our exports become more expensive overseas.
Our goods production sector -- manufacturing and construction -- in the near term will do a little better, but as time goes on will be more limited. But something you won't hear, is there are lags in fiscal policy, of six months to year. So we won't really see the effects until the third our fourth quarter of 2017, going into 2018."
Mike Stenhouse
RI Center for Freedon and Prosperity
"As the unbelievable turned into reality this morning, it struck me that the presidential election was not really all about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It was about a fed-up people, revolting against a corrupt system - the "beast" - that relentlessly favors insiders. Hillary personified the beast, while Donald personified the slayer.
Sadly, based on election results in our state, Rhode Island's version of the beast lives on. I fear our political class has not learned the lessons from the Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump movements - and will continue with their government-centric, anti-family, anti-business status quo."
Kristina Contreras Fox
VP of Young Democrats of America
"A Trump Presidency means the validation of the ugliest part of America. In RI, as with the rest of the country, the hammer of his hatred will fall hardest on minority communities. Being a blue state doesn't make us immune from this danger.
Trump won over 35% (39.5) of the vote here! We need to look in the mirror, and not lie about what the reflection shows us. No more hiding underneath a blue blanket. I expect those who claim Democratic values to be true to those values. The gulf between words and actions have turned into fertile ground for Trump's message to grow here in RI. If you call yourself a Democrat, if you claim to stand in opposition to Trump, now is the time to prove it. Show up and fight back."
