“The Sunday Political Brunch” - February 21, 2016

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Sunday, February 21, 2016

Mark Curtis, Senior Political Analyst

There will be a lot of attention this weekend – and next – about what happens in South Carolina and Nevada. In the giant scope of things, it means little. In the world of politics – like real estate – it’s about location, location, and location. With that in mind, there are two or three other dates and lots of places, which paint a far bigger picture. Let’s brunch on that this week:

BREAKING NEWS at 10pm Eastern Time: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) has suspended his campaign after a dismal finish in South Carolina. This changes the dynamic greatly for the next month. More updated analysis soon here.

“Momentum” – No one is going to win the nomination based on South Carolina, or Nevada, and I don’t believe anyone will drop out (although Dr. Ben Carson is on the bubble, and now Bush is out). These two states are for momentum. Hillary Clinton will win South Carolina, but Bernie Sanders may win Nevada, so it’s a draw for Democrats. Donald Trump will likely win both states by big margins, so the people to watch on the GOP side are the second and third place finishers.

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“Super Tuesday” – March 1st is the next big day to watch. It’s called Super Tuesday because 15 states and territories will hold a primary or a caucus. It is heavily skewed to Southern States. For Republicans it will be a race for who is most conservative. For Democrats the race could be very dynamic with Southern states leaning strongly to Clinton, awarding 692 delegates; and states where Bernie Sanders may hold big upsets: Massachusetts; Minnesota; and, Colorado, which collectively award 288 delegates.

“March 15” – It’s the day of the big states – and of the home states. This is the date that will finally clear the deck – at least for Republicans – I believe. Ohio has a primary, where Gov. John Kasich (R) is the favorite son. Florida also votes that day, in what would have been a “political death match” between Bush and Rubio. Only Rubio survives now, but will Bush endorse him in Florida, and elsewhere?. Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina also vote this day. My gut tells me the Republican nominee will be clear after this date.

“Winner Take All, Not!” – Back in 2008, I criticized the Republican Party for continuing to hold “winner-take-all” primaries, which I feel are undemocratic. The most outrageous case was the Missouri Primary in which the top-three finishers were: McCain 33 percent; Huckabee 32 percent; and, Romney 29 percent. Instead of splitting the delegates on a proportional basis, McCain won all 58 delegates, and the others got zero. This year Missouri will award delegates on a more proportional basis, and will only be winner-take-all if one candidate wins over 50 percent of the overall vote. That’s not perfect, but it’s progress!

“Super Delegates” --- The other thing I railed against in 2008 was the Super Delegate program from the Democratic Party. It’s been around for years, mostly to protect the party’s favorite candidate, in the event some fringe, long shot candidate becomes popular. It was very much an attempt in 1988 to keep Rev. Jesse Jackson from being the nominee, and was nearly used on 2008 to hand deliver the nomination to Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama (who had won more votes and delegates). The party wisely re-thought that agenda and Obama won. The Super Delegate system needs to go. Like the winner-take all for Republicans, it is undemocratic.

“The Last Date” – It rarely happens, but if the Clinton-Sanders match up turns into a see-saw battle like Obama-Clinton in 2008, the last date of the primary season may be the decision maker. Obama sealed the nomination in June 2008 on the final primary day in South Dakota and Montana. This year’s final date of June 7 looms even larger, with California awarding 546 delegates and New Jersey 142. Four other states vote as well. It could be a very dramatic finish for Democrats.