The Warning Signs for an Ugly, Nasty Midterm Election –“The Sunday Political Brunch” - January 16
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
The Warning Signs for an Ugly, Nasty Midterm Election –“The Sunday Political Brunch” - January 16
“Trump Still Can Trump” – Whether you like him or not, I’ve written several times in this column about the long-lasting imprint of President Donald Trump, even out of office. We saw it this past Thursday when the U.S. Supreme Court voted to overturn President Joe Biden’s vaccination mandate for any company with more than 100 employees. The premise was that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, or OSHA, could enforce vaccination mandates as a workplace safety issue. The vote was 6-3 along party appointment lines in the high court. As a one-term president, Trump had three Supreme Court appointees. Those justices could be there 30 more years, or more. Right now, it looks like Biden may get one court appointment. Jimmy Carter in one-term, got zero. The court appointments – or lack thereof – are a big deal.
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“A Split Ruling" – The fine print of the ruling is getting scant media attention, but the high court did uphold the Biden vaccine mandate as it pertained to health care professionals. Making sure nurses, doctors, technicians, and others in the health care fields are vaccinated and boosted, and safe to engage with patients seems like common sense.
“Filibuster Repeal – PRO” – There is a huge fight over the Senate filibuster which allows for unlimited debate in the upper chamber of Congress. Those who favor eliminating the filibuster, argue that it is an outdated, archaic political device. It is a Senate rule, not a Constitutional provision. Opponents say it violates the principle of majority rule, because you need 60 votes to end the debate (and invoke cloture), instead of a simple majority of 51 votes.
“Filibuster Repeal – CON” – Since it is not a Constitutional mandate, the Senate does have the latitude to create its own rules, the simple practice of self-governance. The filibuster is the one tool that still gives the party in the minority some leverage in legislation. As we’ve seen with the current 50-50 split in the Senate, sometimes you need a few votes from the minority party to get things done. Yes, Democrats are in the majority now, but people such as Sens. Manchin and Sinema, want to protect the biggest weapon of the minority, where they could find themselves after the midterm elections in November. No filibuster means no clout if your party is relegated to the minority, which could happen to Democrats this year. Be careful what you wish for!
“Manchin in the Middle (Again)!” – The latest voting rights bill trying to make it through Congress is in jeopardy because of a provision that would eliminate the filibuster in the U.S. Senate. The bill needs every Democrat in the Senate to pass, and already two are saying no. Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia and Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D) Arizona are opposed, and the bill cannot advance without either of them. In a statement Thursday Manchin said, “The filibuster plays an important role in protecting our democracy from the transitory passions of the majority and respecting the input of the minority in the Senate. Contrary to what some have said protecting the role of the minority, Democrat or Republican, has protected us from the volatile political swings we have endured for the past 233 years.” In a brief interview Manchin added, “We need changes to make the Senate work better. We’re not getting rid of the filibuster.”
“Voting Rights in the Squeeze” – The goal of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was to vote down the filibuster, then vote up the latest voting rights reform bill, where Democrats would need a simple 51 vote majority, since the 60 votes to invoke cloture would die with the filibuster’s death. Now that can’t happen. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said the voting reforms were needed to, "Stop partisan redistricting. Stop the suppression of the vote and nullification of elections. Stop big, dark money." But West Virginia Republican Secretary of State Mac Warner says running elections should be left up to the states, as Article 4 of the U.S. Constitution provides, “So the voters of West Virginia understand that our elections are being done properly, that we have security, and we have integrity. And that the process is working we had over 802-thousand people vote, out of 1.1 million registered voters.”
“Inflation Conflagration” – Quite honestly, the filibuster fight is a lot of “inside baseball” that I don’t think the public feels deeply passionate about. What the voting public does care about is what it pays at the grocery store and the gas station. The news this week that inflation has hit 7 percent – a level we’ve not seen in nearly 40 years – is especially troubling to Democrats, the party in power. The record inflation spike in 1982, happened in President Ronald Reagan’s first term after surging to record levels under President Jimmy Carter. The dismal economy cost Carter his job, and the sharp drop in inflation and a spike in the markets recovered by 1984 to help Reagan in a landslide reelection bid.
“Inflation is an Equal Opportunity Offender” – President Biden is not alone is his vulnerability to inflation, nor was Jimmy Carter. It can afflict both parties when in power. In 1992 a quick spike in inflation was enough to torpedo Republican President George H. W. Bush’s reelection bid. The country dipped briefly into recession after Bush’s successful Gulf War victory in Iraq. As always, politics is a “what have you done for me lately” business. Fair? No! Political reality, yes.
What are your biggest concerns as we head into Campaign 2022? Is it inflation? Is it COVID? Is it the overall economy or national security? Just click the comment button and let us know.
