Why Election Years Ending in Zero are So Critical – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – May 23, 2021
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Why Election Years Ending in Zero are So Critical – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – May 23, 2021
“Redistricting and The Census” – Th quick answer on why they are so important is the census. Once the count is over, every state must redraw its Congressional and Legislative districts. Population shifts, and trends change. States undergo demographic shifts that redefine them. The district lines, (and the battle lines), are redrawn for the next ten years.
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“Who has the Advantage?” – Well, it depends. Sometimes, if a party wins big in say, 1980, the momentum can translate to more strength in the first midterm election where the redrawn seats are up for grabs. Not only did Ronald Reagan win big in 1980, his coattails were so strong that his Republican Party also seized control of the Senate. And even though the GOP did not win the House under Reagan’s tenure, with conservative Southern Democrats, they held at least philosophical control of the House and the legislation that ensued.
“What Does 2022 Look Like in 2021? – Redistricting is largely controlled by the majority party in each state legislature and here’s where Republicans hold a huge advantage. Republicans fully control 30 state legislatures, compared to 18 for Democrats, and two states are split. Republicans also hold 27 governorships, compared to 23 for Democrats. (This is important since a governor can veto a redistricting plan).
“So, What About Congress?” – This is where it gets critical because it’s the State Legislatures that also redraw Congressional districts. In 2022, we are likely to see a pitched battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. The Senate is not a problem, since the district is the whole state. But you can imagine scenarios this year where Republican lawmakers in many states may try to redistrict Congressional seats in ways to make the seats more winnable by Republicans. Democrats did the same thing to forge stronger Congressional majorities in 1960 and 1970. It cuts both ways. Right now, the U.S. House is 219 Democrat, 211 Republican, with 5 vacancies. A net gain of seven GOP seats in 2022, puts them in charge, and is well within reach.
“The Outside Factors” – The State Legislatures are not the only influencers here. Looming large is the presence of former President Donald Trump, who wants to be the kingmaker for U.S. House and Senate seats in 2022. His motive? Backing enough winning candidates and seizing control of both chambers in 2022, would mean Trump would have a lot of debts to collect in his anticipated 2024 presidential run. He has the money and enough popularity, still, to make this a viable strategy. Mind you, his unpopularity cost the GOP the House in 2018, and the Senate in 2020, but he has the potential coattails (and dollars) to reverse that next year.
“But How Does He Get There?” – Like everyone else, Trump will have to look at the redrawn Congressional districts. In the short-term, he needs to make a list of all House and Senate members that backed him in 2016, and in 2020, to build a loyalty scale. Some have already pledged to back him in 2024. In some marginal districts there may be GOP primary challengers, and there may be some Trump-backed candidates who run against anti-Trumpers including Rep. Liz Cheney (R) Wyoming. In short, you can be sure the Trump team is already working on a “friends and enemies” list and a plan to help fund the former. The bottom line, if Trump can deliver control of the House and Senate in 2022, it will be hard to deny him the nomination in 2024.
“But Who’s the Messenger?” – This week I was invited to join the new Trump social media platform, now that he’s been banned from Twitter, Facebook, etc., a move that I have argued was anti-free speech and counter-productive. In many respects, it was Trump’s own words and tweets that led to his downfall. So, why not let the man speak? The same holds true for any politician in either party. Words and persuasion matter! Bluntly speaking, if Martin Luther King Jr., had been a terrible public speaker, the Civil Rights movement never would have succeeded to the extent that it did. His passion and his words captivated the nation. So, let people speak, and let the chips fall where they may.
“Trump’s New Social Media Platform” – That said, a lot has to do with the quality of the delivery system. This week Mr. Trump launched his new social media platform, that was to give him the voice that Twitter and Facebook no longer all ow. Let me be frank, I am NOT impressed in the least. I got an email inviting me to join and it sent me to a link (and a rabbit hole) from which I could not escape.
“Judge for Yourself” – I am a great believer in giving the audience information, and simply letting the public decide. That’s how a free press in a free democracy lets people evaluate and decide. When I was invited to join the new Trump social media platform this week, here is what I was presented with: CLICK HERE Please judge for yourself and comment! It’s glitchy, so the link may not take you anywhere. That’s problematic, especially for someone with Trump’s resources.
Are you ready to endorse a 2024 Trump White House bid yet, or do you want to see who else jumps in? Leave a comment below.
