Will Secret Anti-Cianci Fund Prove Successful?
Kate Nagle, GoLocal Contributor
Will Secret Anti-Cianci Fund Prove Successful?
"Since 2010 and when the Supreme Court handed down the decision in Citizens United there's been a proliferation of super PACs and [501] c4 activity -- and that hasn't been a welcome development," said John Marion, Executive Director of Common Cause RI.
"For starters, c4s can be used to shield information about donors," Marion continued. "That's really not really they're about. We're a c4. They weren't intended to be vessels for election work primarily, but the IRS hasn't been regulating this kind of c4 political activity. We've seen groups on the left and right using them for political activity for lack of disclosure. They're not tax-deductible, but there are no limits on c4 contributions."
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTAdrain said Thursday that he expected the group to file the necessary paperwork this week, but group spokesperson Jake Bissaillon confirmed on Friday that it had not yet been filed.
Political Experts Weigh In
Darrell West, Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., recently published Billionaires: Reflections of the Upper Crust about the role of money -- and influence -- by the country's wealthiest donors.
"People form these organizations for a variety of different reasons. Some do it to push (or attack) candidates, while others are more issue-based. The key issue is these groups allow people with lots of financial resources to run ads and influence the public discussion," said West.
In the confidential memo obtained by GoLocal this week, it showed that the group hoped to raise $1 million between now and election day to defeat Cianci.
Jennifer Duffy with the Cook Political Report noted that as at 501(c)(4), the group couldn't exist simply to defeat Cianci -- but that it had to find a way to prove it was issue-oriented.
"501(c)(4) organizations are expressly prohibited from advocating for the election or defeat of a candidate. These groups, which under the IRS regulations are supposed to 'promote social welfare,' need to focus on issues," said Duffy. "They can inject candidates names into the efforts by talking about an issue and then telling voters to "call Buddy Cianci and tell him to support blah, blah, blah."
Duffy continued, "This is a way for donors to maximize their financial resources, and it gives them an organization to hide behind. There could be a backlash if this group becomes the issue in the race. I trust that Cianci will attempt to make them the issue, and knowing Cianci, he has a good shot at being successful."
Chances for Success?
"Success is far from assured. Any political organization has to successfully raise funding and that’s not guaranteed. Even having done so, Crossroads GPS spent millions in the last election, but could claim few victories," said Rhode Island College Professor Kay Israel, noting the case of the national right-wing advocacy group founded by Republican operative Karl Rove.
"While the 501(c)(4) groups have the advantage relating to funding and significant leeway in their actions, it’s still up to the candidates to control the agenda and gain the voters’ support," said Israel. "Although Gina Raimondo was the victor in the Democratic primary, political junkies are still questioning whether it was due to the larger expenditures supporting her or the presence of Clay Pell that cost Taveras the nomination."
Veteran political pollster Vic Profughi spoke to role of the electorate ultimately in determining the outcome.
"I think there has been in the past a fairly substantial number of voters across the city who have resented the power of the East Side -- rightly or wrongly -- and have had the residual effect of not liking being dictated,' said Profughi. "The real question I think is how the Hispanic community reacts to all of this, and frankly, I don't know.
New Email Surfaces
On Friday, several of the names listed on the email Adrain sent on Tuesday denied having any association with the group.
"Didn't attend any meetings and don't belong to any group," said Teny Gross with the Institute for Nonviolence.
"I was not at the meeting, will not be supporting this effort," said Cynthia Stewart Reed.
"I have no idea why I was on the [email] chain, I never gave money to Lorne and wasn't at the meeting," said Sally Lapides.
Former Providence Journal editorial writer Robert Whitcomb said he was "in favor of defeating Cianci," but could not give money or take a formal role in campaigns being an independent journalist. "Buddy's election would mean circuses if not bread," said Whitcomb.
Elorza's campaign said that he did not reply; Bissaillon said when asked if the group was coordinating with Elorza said, "No."
"It's the responsibility of the Board of Elections to police this, but they only do so on complaint from the public," said Marion. "I don't think I'm qualified to say whether this was an instance of coordination because you need to see more than just an email." Marion said the definition of the state law could be seen here.
"There are rules on coordinating with a candidates. Groups have to be careful not to discuss strategy or coordinate outreach efforts. From the email, I am not sure whether this group crossed that line. Merely talking with a candidate would not constitute evidence of unlawful coordination," said West. "But if they had formal plans to dovetail their activities, that would be problematic."
Questions Buddy Cianci Must Answer to be Providence's Next Mayor
Staff recruitment?
When GoLocal first started looking into the possibility of Buddy entering the race, we asked of his former staff, "Where are they now?"
Buddy's been out of office for 12 years. Anyone of voting age then is now over 30. And anyone who was a Buddy disciple had to move on, forge a new career path, or retire. Much like the voting block -- who is Buddy's new base of support from a staff perspective? Can he snag young social media savvy professionals -- what do they know of Buddy's legacy? Can he lure folks away from secure positions for a high degree of uncertainty?
Buddy's got the headquarters, and is undoubtedly putting a team in place, but seems to be keeping a low-profile as the primary campaigns heat up. Watch to see if he can pull any defectors from the losing Democratic campaigns who see Buddy as the more viable way into City Hall than their former opponent who just beat them.
Age and Illness?
It's no secret that Cianci is 73, and has been battling cancer. Listen to him on the radio, you might think you're hearing man twenty years younger. See him in person, however, and you see a man who has been through...a lot. Noticeably slimmer and more subdued, Cianci cuts a contrasting figure to his younger days.
Don't count out the razor-sharp Cianci to use this to his advantage -- that this is the kinder, gentler, grandfatherly Buddy who plans on swooping back in to show the younger generation how to be Mayor, with his experience.
The question will be if he truly has the health and stamina for the grueling sprint to the finish between the primaries and Election Day in November -- and whether hi opponents will bring that up in private circles, or outright in public.
Laugh Test?
The felonies. The toupee. The fireplace log, lit cigarette, and ashtray. They're all products of Buddy's past, and more often than not, a punchline of a joke.
No doubt Buddy's got the ability to laugh at himself -- and quickly dismiss critics pointing to his criminal record -- but do Providence voters want the glad-handing Mayor with his larger-than-life baggage as Providence looks to emerge from the the recent recession and precarious financial standing?
Voters have seen the self-depricating side of Brett Smiley in his man-with-a-plan ad, but don't expect Buddy to play up his follies to the same extent. He'll cut to the chase and speak to his track record and what he did while in office -- and what he plans to do if elected again. So who will be laughing come November? Stay tuned.
Graphic: nobuddypvd.com
Providence as U.S. Joke?
As far as self-image goes, the Economist's recent Buddy piece, "Freshening the Armpit of New England," didn't do much for the national perception of Providence. "Can America's Ex-Con Mayor Win Again?" quipped the Daily Beast. And how can one forget the Business Insider dubbing Cianci the "Poster Boy of Political Scandals."
While Rhode Island as a whole tries to shake the constant bottom-of-the-U.S. rankings for business and the economy, Providence has worked hard to shed the underachieving image, and was most recently awarded citation from the National Conference of Mayors for being an exemplary mid-sized city. Buddy is running on the platform that he turned Providence around before, and he can to it again. The questions is, will voters give him the chance?
Graphic: nobuddypvd.com
Can he win?
Perhaps the biggest question now is whether Buddy can win. When he entered the race as an Independent -- and former Democrat Lorne Adrain made the switch to join him in the unaffiliated ranks -- the prospect of a four-way finale seemed to be in Buddy's favor, having to capture a seemingly do-able share of the vote.
Now with Adrain out, and whispers that Republican Dan Harrop might not stay in the race until election day, the prospect of a three-way battle and possibly a two-one -- could be keeping the former Mayor up at night...or he could be too busy raising money to meet the winner of the Democratic primary an his general elections challengers starting September 10. Either way, Buddy's chances of getting back in the race have slimmed, but he can never be counted out.
