Will the Campaign be Abortion v. Inflation? -- “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- July 10, 2022
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Will the Campaign be Abortion v. Inflation? -- “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- July 10, 2022
“The Abortion Battle” – Two weeks after the Supreme Court issued its decision putting the abortion jurisdiction back in the hands of each state, President Biden took executive action, that will try to preserve some rights not held by the states. For example, the Justice Department says states can’t bad so-called “abortion pills” because they have been approved for use by the Federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and are often delivered by the U.S. Mail. Biden also pledged more availability and funds for contraception, which could reduce demand for abortions. Short of major action by Congress (which is doubtful), Roe is gone; and the issue rests with the states. The president may only have minimal impact.
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“What Say the States?” – At last count, at least 13 states have essentially said laws on the books banning abortions are in force. Here in West Virginia, the state has a law from the 1870s making abortion a crime, but the Governor is planning to call the legislature in for a special session to do any necessary updating and clarifying. The sides are sharply divided. “I do think that it’s important to ensure that we’re going to have a durable law that saves as many baby’s lives as humanly and legally possible. And I’ll be in court trying to ensure that fact,” said Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) West Virginia. On the other side, “Personally I think that reproductive rights should be between a person and their physician. I don’t think that the government should really be involved at all… I think abortion is health care and that that’s how we should treat it,” said Delegate Kayla Young (D) West Virginia.
“Common Ground?” – In a bright red state such as West Virginia, there is little, if any, common ground. Republicans hold all six statewide Constitutional offices, and they hold super-majorities in both the House of Delegates and State Senate. Sen. Joe Manchin is the only Democrat in the five-member Congressional delegation. So, when Democrats like Delegate Young ask for exceptions for rape and incest, they’re unlikely to get it. Some moderate Republicans may support them, but the numbers are so lopsided there isn’t a chance. In solid blue states such as California and New York, the reverse is true. We will see a 50-state patchwork.
“The Politics of it All” – As I’ve written, abortion went from 0 to 60 mph with lightning speed as a political issue this year. It wasn’t even on the radar as a top-tier issue until the leaked Roe opinion from a few months ago. The main place where it will be a huge issue is in U.S. Senate races because only Senators have the duty to confirm Supreme Court justices, or any federal judges for that matter. With the Senate currently split 50-50, there are seven Senate races in battleground states this year where abortion will become a litmus test. That said, abortion rights supporters would need at least two conservative justices to retire, and that seems unlikely even if there is a second Biden term. With three appointees, the 6-3 conservative court is President Trump’s lasting legacy.
“Flipping the Issue Coin” – As mentioned, more conservative forces are pointing to the economy as the driving issue this year. Inflation is at a forty-year high of 8.6 percent. The Federal Reserve recent raise interest rates by .75 and is likely to double down on that increase in the next month. Gasoline prices are at a nationwide average of $5.00 a gallon. The party in power always gets the blame, and right now the only good economic news for the Biden administration is that unemployment remains at 3.6 percent, among the lowest in 50 years. Last month alone, more than 270,000 new jobs were created nationwide. While that sounds good, paychecks are stretched to the limits by the above-mentioned prices.
“From Biden’s Vantage Point” – “My economic plan is working,” said President Biden at the White House on Friday. That was in response to the rosy jobs report that came out earlier in the day. Yes, more people are working, but they have less spendable income. I heard one of his supporters on the radio today, touting that gasoline dropped ten cents in the past week, in many parts of the country. 10 cents, after the price per gallon had already doubled in the past year. Somehow, I don’t think many voters will find that comforting. And if the country slips into a recession before November, the election could be a bloodbath for Democrats. Look, a recession has happened to the GOP before, too, so no party is immune.
