Assessing Devin Carter and His Future in the NBA - Kevin Stacom

Assessing Devin Carter and His Future in the NBA - Kevin Stacom

Mike Tranghese recently relayed a story to me about how Devin Carter ended up at Providence College. The short version is that Mike was having a conversation with Frank Martin who, at the time, had recently been fired from the head coaching position at the University of South Carolina. Mike asked Coach Martin if there were any players he would recommend as a possible transfer candidate capable of playing at the Big East/Providence College level. His reply was “Yes.” There was one that he especially liked in terms of high potential, Carter. Mike did his homework and proceeded to urge then-PC Coach Ed Cooley to look into the possibility of pursuing Carter, which he eventually successfully did.

 

So I guess we all owe Mike a bit of gratitude as Providence College fans for his role in securing a player of Carter’s stature who, over the course of his two years at PC, has elevated his game to a point where he now feels comfortable declaring for the NBA draft. Imagine how dreary our past winter and season would have been without the benefit of watching Carter perform his contributions to this team and to the history of the program.

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You can make the case that the year he just completed is one of the most impressive seasons by any player in recent memory, and this assessment is an attempt to project, based on that season, how Devin Carter might fare in the upcoming June NBA draft, and what are his chances for success at the NBA level.

                 

In preparing a final scouting report for an NBA team, it generally is comprised of two key elements -- the statistical and the subjective. The case for whether you think a player will succeed or fail should ideally be bolstered by an argument about how each element supports the other. 

                 

Here are Devin’s final statistics for his just completed Junior year:

 

33 games/35min/game:

 

47%FG’s; 38% 3’s; 75%FT’s; 8.7 rebounds; 3.6 assists/2.7turnovers; 1.8 steals;1 block; 19.7 points/game

                 

For someone like Carter, who has a body of work prior to his Junior year, it’s instructive to see what his numbers were in his freshman and sophomore years in order to see if there is a trend pointing towards positive development, stagnation, or regression. 

                   

In this regard,  Carter passes with flying colors -- there is nothing but dramatic improvement in just about every category- shooting percentages on FGs went from 42% to 43% to 47%, respectively 

3 point%’s from 27% to 30% to 47%

FT’s from 69% to 72% to 75%

Assists from 1.8 to 2.5 to 3.6 per game

Rebounds from 3.8 to 4.9 to 8.7/game

Steals from .9 to 1.8 to 1.8/game

Points from 9 points to 13 points to 19.7 points/game

                     

There are certain indicators that jump out at you besides the obvious positive improvement in all shooting percentages. The combination of his assists (especially for a non-primary ball handler), rebounds, steals, and even block shots 1/game( for a 6’3” player), are, to me, a harbinger of a good chance of being a key contributor at the NBA level. I say this because all these categories involve instincts for the game, and are indicators of a high “motor”, and the ability to project effort and intangibles that can impact a game positively. His 8.7 rebounds/game and 1.8 steals are impressive. Rebounding and having a nose for the ball involve effort and instincts. The same can be said of steals, and to average a block a game as a 6’3” guard indicates a high degree of athleticism.

                   

I know I’ll be fact-checked but I can’t remember a guard in the history of the school to lead his team in scoring, rebounding, assists, and steals, and I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to suggest that there hasn’t been a player since Marvin Barnes who was able to impact and dominate a game in both sides of the ball as Devin Carter did this past season. 

                     

A conversation with lead assistant Dennis Felton confirmed my take on his unique defensive ability. Coach Felton highlighted it is unique because it is two fold- he’s capable of locking down a particular offensive player and also, because of his length, athletic recovery ability, and relentless intensity, is extremely disruptive in general to an opponent’s offensive schemes.

 

Carter also benefited from head coach Kim English and his staff’s new emphasis on seeking 3-point opportunities, along with foregoing midrange shots for strong finishes at the hoop and the inclusion of a new effective wrinkle of jump stopping off 2 feet in the lane setting up, as Coach Felton describes “sucker fakes” to include clever ball fakes, up and under moves, jump hooks, etc. He has the ability to make a play on the break and also finish a play with an athletic alley-oop reverse dunk if need be.

 

In summation, when evaluating Devin Carter’s prospects for an NBA future, I think the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. As impressive as his improvement was across the board skill-wise, his core value and his main attribute is the relentless intensity he brings on a consistent basis. In modern parlance, he has a lot of “Dog” in him.

 

That persistent presence of mind and focus at some point has to be placed in the “talent” category That quality will make him stand out and at least enable him to be a solid rotational player in the NBA When you insert him in a game, he will have an impact, given his mental and physical approach. As Red Auerbach was want to say, “Give me a player with a little less talent and a lot more heart, and I’ll kick your ass every time.”

 

The heart that Carter showed, along with his teammates following their best player’s lead, made you want to root for this team with an intensity to match the effort they put out on the floor. The new regime of Kim English and his staff put together an inspiring season, especially considering all the challenges they faced with the loss of Bryce Hopkins. Trust me, guys don’t play that hard for a coach they don’t like.

 

I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but that is why it was so frustrating when this team and everyone involved, including their star player Carter, were unjustly denied access to the NCAA tournament and the attendant experience that these young me deserved three bids to the Big East - complete nonsense. 

                 

A lot can happen between now and the draft on June 26 and 27th. The general consensus is that this is a weak draft but still there could be as many as ten foreigners in the 1st round, along with 3 or 4 G-league "one and dones'.  Still, my best guess is that Carter’s draft range now is between mid-teens and the mid-twenties in the 1st round - NBA body, NBA athlete, improving offensive skills, instant defensive factor