Crowe: NFL Championship Games
John Crowe, Sports Contributor
Crowe: NFL Championship Games
We’ll have to wait a while for free agency to get underway and until April for the NFL Draft to see how they’ll use their current number three pick, but the coaching decisions on both sides of the ball will surely set the tone on what type of football they’ll be looking to play have yet to be made.
With each passing day, other teams are capitalizing and filling up their staffs. As of this weekend, five of the seven head coaching openings have been filled with only the Commanders and Seahawks left. These are pivotal days for Mayo and the route back to the next dynasty depends on it. The more the delay, the more the pain could be on the other side. So, if the Pats would to be where the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers are today anytime, the time for action starts now. If not, we could be looking at another four-win season in 2024.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTNow, let’s get to the championship day picks and find out who’s going to Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas, at least in our minds. So far, we are 8-2 in our predictions with only three games left in the 2023 NFL season.
AFC Championship Game
#3 Chiefs at #1 Ravens (Sunday 3 pm on CBS)
To me, the Ravens (14-4) are clearly the best team left of the four remaining. Home-field advantage helps as they host their first AFC Championship Game. It also helps that quarterback Lamar Jackson had a brilliant showing last week against the Texans, accounting for all four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing), which should give them confidence here against the Chiefs. Remember, Jackson went into last week’s Divisional Round game with a 1-4 record with 4 TDs and 7 turnovers.
Kansas City (13-6) got past Buffalo last week based on the power of its run game. Isiah Pacheco (97 yards, 1 TD), who is questionable for Sunday’s game, put them ahead and then shut the door on the Bills with a last-second first down. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes did the rest with a pair of TD tosses but more importantly, no interceptions.
The Ravens led the league all season long in scoring defense at 16 points per game. The Chiefs, who are looking to go to their fourth Super Bowl in five seasons under head coach Andy Reid, were just behind them at 17 points per game so points could be at a premium.
The Bills limited Houston to only 213 yards overall and just 38 on the ground. Getting pressure on Mahomes, who’s now in his sixth AFC Championship Game in six seasons, is a must if Baltimore wants to move on. The first step to that is to contain Kansas City’s rushing attack.
Former Patriots offensive lineman Joe Tuney is out due to a pec injury. That’s a major blow to the Chiefs' offensive line in both protection and the run game. Baltimore will get Jackson’s favorite tight end target Mark Andrews back for the first time since week 11 when he suffered an ankle injury as he’s been activated off injured reserve.
Here’s an odd tidbit: since the 2020 season, the team that has beaten Buffalo in the playoffs has lost the next week. Beware KC.
Key for Chiefs: Mahomes arm & accuracy – in four previous meetings vs. the Ravens, Mahomes has averaged 370 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Key for Ravens: No turnovers. If they don’t give the Chiefs short fields and extra possessions, they should walk away with a win.
Winner: Ravens
NFC Championship Game
#3 Lions at #1 49ers (Sunday 6:30 pm on FOX)
San Francisco entertains the Lions (14-5) in what will be the 49ers' third straight NFC Championship Game appearance. The pressure could be on them, though, as they’ve yet to win a Super Bowl title in any of those seasons.
The biggest question for San Francisco (13-5) will be the health of wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who was 50-50 to play at the start of the week after suffering a shoulder injury in the win last week over Green Bay, is off the injury report and will play. That’s good news for the Niners, who struggled offensively without him just as they did during the regular season when Samuel missed parts of three games in which the 49ers went 0-3.
Even though Brock Purdy wasn’t great against Green Bay, he came through in the clutch with the final-minute, game-winning drive for the victory. Keeping up right has been the key as Purdy has only been sacked 8 times in the last 7 games.
Over on the Detroit side, they haven’t seen an NFC Championship Game since the 1991 regular season. To beat the top seed on the road, they’ll need quarterback Jared Goff to be the guy he’s been at home. When he leaves the comfy confines of Ford Field, his quarterback rating drops to 89.4 compared to 98.1 at home.
Will offensive coordinator Ben Johnson be distracted by the fact that he’s reportedly going to be named the new head coach of the Commanders as soon as the Lions exit the playoffs? Probably not, but it’s something to be watched. So too should be the knee of rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. He’s been banged up the past few weeks but was good enough to catch a touchdown pass in last week’s victory over the Buccaneers and practiced during the week.
Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been a beast during the postseason, averaging 11.4 yards per touch. Detroit will want to get him at least 10 or more touches.
This one may come down to turnovers. In two home games, the Lions have not turned the ball over and won. During the regular season, the 49ers were near the top of the league in turnover differential at +10 and were +2 against the Packers.
Key for Lions: Containing Christian McCaffrey. They won’t be able to shut him down, but don’t let him get 75+ yards rushing and 75+ receiving.
Key for 49ers: Getting the Lions off the field on third down. The speed of wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, along with LaPorta and running backs Gibbs and David Montgomery give Detroit many options to keep the chains moving and the 49ers off the field.
Winner: 49ers
Video Wall Photo: Andres Krogh Jorgensen, Unsplash