Crowe: NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Predictions

Crowe: NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Predictions

The Jerod Mayo era is official in Foxboro after Wednesday’s formal press conference announcing him as the 15th head coach in team history and the man to succeed Bill Belichick. It wasn’t too much of a mystery that it would happen, but now New England Nation would like to know what’s going to be different moving forward.

Owner Robert Kraft acknowledged that the Patriots would look at people outside the organization to help surround Mayo in the front office and coaching staff, but also said they like to lean on people internally in all their businesses. Mayo already has at his side Robyn Glaser as his executive vice president of football business and senior advisor to the head coach. She’s been with The Kraft Group for 17 years, reporting directly to Robert and Jonathan Kraft.

The new head coach also said titles are important, something his predecessor didn’t believe in. “Everything is under consideration,” Mayo added as all the coaches’ bios were removed from the team’s website on Thursday. Only the text that the coaching staff for 2024 will be announced at a later time was left below Mayo’s bio.

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More changes are coming, although I’m still not sure we’re going to be able to get used to one of the biggest changes: Mayo calling Mr. Kraft “Thunder” or “Thunder Cat” any time soon. I’m sure winning games will help that transition very quickly.

Last week, we went 4-2 for our Super Wild Card predictions, with only the NFC East holding us back as both the Cowboys and Eagles were blown out by the Packers and Buccaneers, respectively. The last time the divisional round went chalk was the 2018 season. There’s always been at least one upset since. So, with that in mind, here are our picks.

 

Saturday’s games:

#4 Texans at #1 Ravens (4:30 pm on ABC)

Baltimore’s well rested as they sat many of their starters including quarterback Lamar Jackson in week 18 and had the bye last week. They watched as the Texans completed a comeback over Cleveland in the Wild Card round behind rookie QB C.J. Stroud’s three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions for scores. The Ravens (13-4) routed the Texans 25-9 back in week 1 and this one could come down to the defenses again as both teams are ranked in the top 11 in scoring defense. Jackson may be one of the favorites for MVP this year, but he’s just 1-3 in the playoffs with 4 TDs and 7 turnovers.
Key for Texans: Don’t give up big plays in the passing game.
Key for Ravens: Get to Stroud and force him to make mistakes.

Winner: Ravens

 

#7 Packers at #1 49ers (8:15pm on FOX)

This will be the 10th time these two teams have met in playoffs. It’s no shock the 49ers (12-5) are here as the top seed but the Packers' (10-8) overwhelming upset of the Cowboys was the talk of round one. Jordan Love has been on fire with 21 touchdowns (3 coming vs. Dallas last week) and only one interception in the last nine games, leading the Packers to a 7-2 record during that stretch. San Francisco, who has only won a Super Bowl once as a number one seed (1994), will welcome back a healthy Christian McCaffery, who missed the last six quarters with a calf strain. Green Bay was the first number 7 seed to a playoff game (all others went 0-6) but winning a second won’t be as easy.
Key for Packers: Stay ahead. The Packers are not built to come from behind against the 49ers.
Key for 49ers: Win the turnover margin. When Brock Purdy doesn’t turn it over, San Francisco wins.

Winner: 49ers

 

Sunday’s games

#4 Bucs at #3 Lions (3 pm on NBC)

After not having a home playoff game since 1993, the Lions (13-5) now have two in two weeks after having their first playoff victory since 1991. This one may be a battle of third down success. Last week against the Rams, Detroit converted 56% of the time while the Buccaneers (10-8) went just 2-12 against Philadelphia. Baker Mayfield has led Tampa to a 6-1 record to win the NFC South and its defense is second in the league, holding its opponent to 15 points per game.  The Lions defeated the Bucs in Tampa in week 6, 20-6.
Key for Buccaneers: Big plays through the air as they did vs. Philly (219 yards after catch).
Key for Lions: Keep Jared Goff upright against the Bucs' blitz.

Winner: Lions

 

#3 Chiefs at #2 Bills (6:30 pm on CBS)

We can call this the Kadarius Toney offsides game. Remember back in week 14? If not for his penalty and subsequent touchdown being called back, this game could’ve been in Kansas City. It’ll be the first time Patrick Mahomes goes on the road in the playoffs and the first time KC will be playing in Buffalo since 2020. The Bills (12-6) have won the last two in the series and this game comes almost exactly two years to the day of that incredible 45-42 overtime thriller won by the Chiefs (12-6) at Arrowhead Stadium. Keep an eye on that banged-up Bills defense. Remember, Kansas City has an extra two days of rest here after the Bills game got moved from Sunday to Monday due to the Buffalo blizzard.
Key for Chiefs: Contain Josh Allen. 3 touchdown passes and a 52-yard run for TD sent the Steelers home—Paging Frank Clark & company.
Key for Bills: Contain Patrick Mahomes. The only QB with more games with 4 passing and one running touchdowns than Allen (3) is Mahomes (4).

Winner:  Chiefs