Little Chance for NCAA or NIT Tournaments - Rams Now Playing for A-10 Seeding
James Malachowski, Sports Columnist
Little Chance for NCAA or NIT Tournaments - Rams Now Playing for A-10 Seeding
TeamRankings.com gives the Rams a 0.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament. This less than 1% chance is the probability of URI winning the A-10 Tournament and being awarded the automatic bid. The analytics give URI a zero chance to get an At-Large bid.
Although not predicted in this computer model, the Rams, with their 11-13 overall record, realistically have zero chance of making the NIT Tournament.
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Atlantic-10 Men’s Basketball Championship
The Rams are now left with playing for their seeding position in the A-10 Men’s Basketball Championship. They are currently 5-6 in the conference, which puts them 9th out of 15 teams.
In the A-10 Tournament, the top nine teams get a bye in the first round. The format requires teams 10 through 15 to play four games in five days to win the Championship and automatic bid. It is an impossible task. No team has ever done it.
Rams are currently 9th of 15 teams in the A-10.
The Rams must hang on to at least a 9th-place position to avoid playing in the first round of the A-10.
In last Sunday’s UMass game, Louis Kortright’s potential game-winning shot at the buzzer, bouncing off the back of the rim and missing, had significant consequences. With a different outcome to this one shot, URI would have found itself in 6th place with a two-victory tiebreaker advantage over UMass.
As is often the case, people focus on the last few plays of a game. Kortright’s missed shot was not the reason the Rams lost. URI played the first half with the defensive intensity that has been missing all year. They held UMass to 32 points. However, in the second half, the Rams reverted to their COVID defense, where they didn’t come any closer than six feet of an opponent and gave up 49 points. There were times during the second half when their defense was particularly inept, giving up a string of uncontested layups.
Remaining conference games
Of the seven remaining games, three are against the top teams in the league: Richmond (#1), Loyola (#3), and VCU (#4). These will be difficult games to win.
Three of the games are against teams that are currently lower than URI in the standings: Fordham (#11), LaSalle (#14), and St. Louis (#15). These are potentially winnable games.
The toss-up game is against George Mason, who is currently ranked 7th. Mason beat URI 92-84 earlier in the year, but this upcoming contest will be at the Ryan Center. It’s the next to last game of the regular season and will be a pivotal match-up.
There will, of course, be upsets, but predicting the final games based on current standing would get the Rams to 8-9, not counting the George Mason game. Winning that game, going 9-9 in the conference, and getting a bye in the first round would be significant accomplishments for this new Ram team.
Coach Miller on the season’s ups and downs
Coach Miller, In discussing how his team is holding up through this up-and-down season, was very candid, as usual. He said, “Our team has had some rough and tumble times, but we are not going to break in terms of trying to do things the right way. We are trying to avoid being one of those teams that don’t like coming to see each other every day at this time of year because it’s very, very challenging as you go through a long season to see the light at the end of the tunnel.”
Miller appeared to be speaking from experience, and one could not help but wonder if he was referring to last year’s team. That URI team was 5-13 in conference games. In the first round of the A-10 Tournament, they played like they did not care, losing by almost 20 points to a weak LaSalle team. Then, almost all of the players left the program.
This year’s Rams have already won as many conference games as last year’s team. They are also still fighting hard, as seen from their strong comeback attempt on the road against UMass last Sunday.
Where will they finish in conference play?
Back to our algorithm. What does the computer program from TeamRanking.com predict for URI’s final conference record? Eight wins, ten losses. The machine does not believe URI will beat George Mason. This would likely mean URI would come in 10th and would have to play in the first round of the A-10 Tournament.
If the Rams finally play a full game of defense and hit their foul shots, they have a chance to prove the computer wrong. If not, they won’t make it into the weekend of the A-10 Tournament.