The 2011 Hurricane Season Is Underway

The 2011 Hurricane Season Is Underway

It runs from June 1 through November 30 and each year meteorologists and the media as herald it as the most significant environmental period of the year. It is the much anticipated, much hyped and much dreaded Hurricane Season. As yet, Arlene, Bret, Cindy and siblngs have yet to be born so we don't know what lies ahead but the season is bound to heat up as the summer progresses.

Let’s face it, hurricanes here in New England are rare and, one might even argue, VERY rare events. The big ones that come to mind … “Bob” 1991, “Gloria” 1985, “Donna” 1960”, “Carol” and “Edna” 1954, The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 (before they were given names), the granddaddy of them all, The Great Hurricane of 1938 … and a smattering of lesser storms have come along randomly and, at times, with a great interval of years in between. It’s been nearly 20 years since our last devastating hurricane. There have been a few “scares” and near misses that haven’t as much as rustled the underbrush. Many storms have petered out, veered to sea or clocked someone else down the coast. And there in lies the problem … recently we have lived a charmed hurricane life.

Now that the new season is upon us, the question, once again, is this the year when we get another big one? Or any at all? Frankly the chances are the same every year. The fact that we haven’t been hit for a while doesn’t change the odds. They remain somewhere around 100 to 1 for an intense storm like the 1938 hurricane and about 11 to 1 for a minimal hurricane.  The chances are about 4 to 1 for a tropical storm of any type.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

There are several operational and experimental hurricane season prediction groups that have made their predictions for the 2011 season and many of them think that the East Coast is more vulnerable this year than in recent years. Next week I’ll take a look at why the gurus think we may be under the gun and lay out the numbers some of them are predicting.