Lardaro Report: RI's Revised Labor Market Data
Len Lardaro, URI Economist
Lardaro Report: RI's Revised Labor Market Data
Before I detail this month’s CCI results in light of the newly revised data, let me state that this was one of the most bizarre revisions of historical data that I can recall in a very long time. First, the depressing employment numbers: According to the data revisions, payroll employment, the number of jobs in RI was 7,300 lower than the earlier data for December of 2018. For January, we returned to our prior peak in December of 2006! Resident employment, the number of employed RI residents, fared little better - its December 2018 level was 5,400 less. It never was above its prior peak. The employment rate, the percentage of our working-age population that is employed was also revised downward. In addition to this (as if that’s not bad enough), the Labor Force was revised lower for every month since January of 2017. Total Manufacturing Hours and Private Service-Producing Employment were also revised lower. What was revised higher? Think Redundancy Island (i.e., RI) - Government Employment. Big surprise!
What was bizarre? As you can see from the table of CCI values below, many of last year’s CCI values were revised higher and, ready for this ... the CCI attained its maximum of 100 twice last year. In fact, for nine of the twelve months last year, the CCI was revised higher (typically by +1 improving indicator).
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US Consumer Sentiment fell again for the fourth time in the last six months, no doubt hurt by the shutdown. Rhode Island’s goods-producing sector fared poorly again in January. Single- Unit Permits, a measure of new home construction, fell yet again (-6.8%), its seventh decline in the last eight months. Declining interest rates will likely not give as much of a boost to this indicator as you might think (RI has a static population). Total Manufacturing Hours, a proxy for manufacturing output, has now declined for the most recent four months, with the rate of decline accelerating dramatically over the past two months. Even downward revisions in 2017 could not help this indicator. The Manufacturing Wage actually rose in January (+1.8%), but this was only its first increase since September.
Our state’s Labor Force reached its most recent peak in October and has plateaued at that value ever since, but at declining rates of annual growth. Along with this, the labor force participation rate also fell in January. The Unemployment Rate has remained at 4 percent since October, certainly not the result of robust job growth.
Retail Sales grew again in January (+1.2%), Government Employment rose from its level a year ago for a fifth consecutive month (+0.7%), Private Service-Producing Employment growth remained weak (+0.5%), and Benefit Exhaustions, the timeliest measure of longer-term unemployment, fell sharply in January (-22.1%).
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