Do High Profile Endorsements Matter?

Do High Profile Endorsements Matter?

With less than one week remaining until the Rhode Island primary, Republican gubernatorial candidates Allan Fung and Ken Block have each announced endorsements from high-profile in-state and national GOP figures.

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In a press release sent out yesterday, Block anncounced he had received an endorsement from former 2010 Republican gubernatorial candidate John Robitaille and RI House Minority Leader Brian Newberry, while Fung announced that he had received the backing of 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

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"The reason these endorsements tend to come late is that quite frankly, a lot of people tend not to tune in to race until after Labor Day.  What that means is that in states like Rhode Island and Massachusetts, you basically have a one-week primary race.  If a campaign has any exciting news, they will want to convey to the public during this final week," said Dan Kennedy, Acting Director and Associate Professor at Northeastern University's School of Journalism.

High profile figures endorse candidates in 2014 RI elections 

Romney, Robitaille and Newberry are the latest in a series of high profile national figures who have thrown their support behind candidates seeking office in Rhode Island this year.    On the democratic side of the aisle, former US Congressman for Rhode Island Patrick Kennedy has endorsed Democrat Angel Taveras who is running against in General Treasurer Gina Raimondo and Clay Pell in the Democratic primary for Rhode Island Governor, and Seth Magaziner who is running against Frank Caprio in the Democratic primary for General Treasurer.   Magaziner has also received support from former US President Bill Clinton, who headlined a fundraiser for him in Providence on August 27th.   

Raimondo has received endorsements from big name politicos at both the national and statewide level.   She has been endorsed by former Rhode Island Governor Philip Noel, and three-time Rhode Island Democratic gubernatorial nominee and former State Senator Myrth York, and has also received the backing of former New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel -- each of whom have hosted fundraisers on Raimondo's behalf.  

Pell has received support from pop siner Colbie Caillat who was in Rhode Island this past weekend to attend an event for Pell campaign volunteers.

Governor Lincoln Chafee who is not seeking reelection will not be announcing an endorsement in the gubernatorial race before the primary, according to spokesperson Faye Zuckerman.  

High profile endorsements can may lend credibility to GOP candidates this year

"If Bill Clinton endorses someone, that can make a difference because he has unusual credibility and the ability to connect with voters.  His endorsements have helped candidates across the country," said Brookings Institution vice president and director of Governance Studies, Darrell M. West.

Endorsements from high-profile Republican party figures might have a particularly high impact in this year's gubernatorial primary race, according to veteran Rhode Island pollster Victor Profughi,  as both Fung and Block have seeking to establish their GOP credentials and discredit claims that they are RINOs (Republicans in name only) among Republican primary voters.

Block, who ran for Governor on the Moderate party ticket in 2010 only joined the GOP last fall when he announced his candidacy for governor, while Fung has come under criticism from the Block campaign for being a registered Democrat and donating to Democrats David Cicilline, Gordon Fox and Harry Reid.   The Fung campaign has run advertisements linking Block to Governor Chafee, a Democrat, and President Barack Obama, who Block acknowledges voting for in 2012.

"Robitaille's endorsement of Block at this point in the race could be signicant, as Mr. Block has been struggling throughout the duration of the campaign to establish his credentials as a real Republican," said Profughi. "Similarly, Mitt Romney's endorsement will help further the legitimacy of Mayor Fung's Republican credentials."

High profile endorsements rarely impact vote 

Generally speaking, high-profile endorsement announcements do not typically change election outcomes in a significant way, say political experts.

"High profile endorsements generally don’t make a big difference in the vote because it is hard to transfer popularity across individuals," said West.  "Most voters make up their minds on a candidate-by-candidate basis so the fact that one person is popular does not guarantee that the person he or she endorses is going to get the vote."

"I don’t think that any politician being endorsed by another politician has any impact on the outcome of the race.  Having the support of some national political figures can be helpful in raising money out of state, but I don’t think that Rahm Emanuel supporting candidate X over candidate Y is really changing any votes," said Kennedy.

Timing is everything when it comes to the potential influence of endorsements, according to Profughi.

"I would say as a general statement that endorsements by high profile individuals probably don’t help any candidate a whole lot, but that being said, with endorsements it really comes down to timing,"  said Profughi.   "As you come down to the last few days of a campaign, almost any development that can change the flow of things and dominate the news cycle is likely to have some impact.  How much of an impact that is hard to say.  I believe that the Block campaign has timed these endorsement announcements for the final week before the primary, because of its potential to sway enough votes to win on September 9th."