RI Primary Predictions: Political Experts Weigh In

RI Primary Predictions: Political Experts Weigh In

With the primary just 2 weeks from tomorrow,  Rhode Island political experts and GoLocalProv MINDSETTERS™ weigh in with predictions for who will win the statewide primaries for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, and the citywide Democratic primary for Providence Mayor.

Democratic Primary for Rhode Island Governor

“This race is clearly a ‘toss-up’ between Clay Pell and Gina Raimondo,” said John Loughlin, Former RI State Rep. and host of The John Loughlin Show on 630WPRO.

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Overall, Gina Raimondo was the favorite to win among a majority of the experts and pundits who weighed in.

“He, or in this case she, with the largest political war chest wins,” said GoLocal MINDSETTER™ Don Roach.

“For Raimondo to spend as much money as she has to gain 3% points since May seems a concern with Pell’s surge but she’s strongest among the 3 in terms of voters saying they are locked solid in her camp,” said 920 WHJJ Morning Show host Ron St. Pierre.

Political insiders agree that the winner of the three-way Democratic primary race for Governor will be determined by a combination of money on hand in the final weeks of the campaign, and a strong ground game in place for getting out the vote on September 9th.

 “The power of the NEA behind Pell means that he will have a solid ground game – a very labor intensive effort of making sure your previously identified voters get to the poll. This is what matters in primary elections, which are typically characterized by low voter turn-out. In other words he (or she) who has identified, by name, their vote and gets them to vote – wins,” said Loughlin.  

Republican Primary for Rhode Island Governor

Meanwhile, on the Republican side of the primary race for RI Governor, political experts were evenly divided between Cranston Mayor Allan Fung and businessman Ken Block in their predictions.

“Clearly, this was Mayor Fung’s race to lose, and with all the mis-steps in this campaign he may actually fulfill that promise and lose. It seems like the Mayor has gone out of his way – all the way to Ohio, in fact, to hand this race to businessman Ken Block,” said Loughlin.

Those who give Fung the advantage point to high voter turnout -- particularly in the cities of Cranston and Warwick -- as being Fung's clearest path to victory.    “If there is a high turnout, Fung wins.   Block has supporters all over the state, but not in large numbers in any particular place,”  said Roger Williams University Professor June Speakman.

“It’s a Republican primary so it’s all about turnout. Fung’s made a passel of miscues during this campaign but a strong Cranston-Warwick turnout makes that all go away,” said St. Pierre.

Democratic Primary for Providence Mayor

While political experts were split between Michael Solomon and Jorge Elorza when asked to predict which candidate will emerge victorious in the Democratic primary for Providence Mayor, there was a consensus that Elorza is the better positioned of the two to succeed in a general election against independent Buddy Cianci and Republican Daniel Harrop.

“Providence is about wheeling and dealing, and surprisingly I think Elorza is doing the better job of politicking his way to a victory,”  said Roach.

“An Elorza win, by a wide enough margin could spell the end of Cianci’s come-back bid,” said Loughlin.

Democratic Primary for Lt. Governor

While some political insiders expect Secretary of State Ralph Mollis to win the Democratic primary nomination for Lt. Governor, based on the fact that he has higher name recognition among primary voters than opponents Dan McKee and Frank Ferri, others argue that the high percentage of undecided primary voters in this race presets an opportunity for McKee to pull off an upset victory.

“I predict Mollis on name recognition but the amount of undecideds in this race is staggering,”  said St. Pierre.

“Probably Mollis [will win the Democratic primary for Lt. Goveror], due to name recognition.  If one of the others gets on the air that may change things,” said Speakman.

Democratic Primary for Treasurer

Political experts were split between those who predict a Caprio victory based on experience and ground game and those who say that the controversy surrounding Caprio and voters’ desire for a fresh face will allow Magaziner to win the nomination on September 9th.    

“Though Seth Magaziner has shown some strength, this will still be a very close race. Bad publicity on the beach contract with Frank’s brother David may sway some voters. At the end of the day, its that ground game, a specialty of Frank Caprio that will make the difference – advantage Caprio” said Loughlin.  

“Magaziner is a fresh face and I doubt RI will ever forgive Caprio for the disrespect he showed the President several years back,”  said Roach.  

Democratic Primary for Secretary of State

Ultimately, the only primary race this year that does not appear to be anyone's to win is the Democratic primary for Secretary of State.  Guillaume DeRamel was the overwhelming favorite over Nellie Gorbea to win the nomination he lost to Mollis back in 2006.

“Democratic voters love a come-back, and DeRamel, who came up short against Mollis before has waited his turn, another characteristic democrats love – advantage DeRamel,” said Loughlin.  

“DeRamel waits nearly a decade and gets the win he felt he should have had in 2006,” said Roach.