3 Weeks Until Primary: What Will it Take for the Candidates to Win?
Kate Nagle, GoLocal Contributor
3 Weeks Until Primary: What Will it Take for the Candidates to Win?
"All candidates in the Rhode Island primary face the same two obstacles: the majority of the campaigning is conducted during summer vacation months, and voter turnout in a primary is generally low," said Rhode Island College Professor of Communications Val Endress. "Although this is a year in which there are many highly publicized and competitive races, candidates can ill afford to ignore the essential ground game. Even well financed media campaigns can fail if candidates can't get voters to the polls. So, at this point, get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts are critically important.
SLIDES: What Candidates Need to Do in Final 3 Weeks Before Primaries BELOW
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST"This close to the primary, it comes down to the old fashioned ground game: making phone calls, knocking on doors, showing up at local fairs and beach concerts," said Roger Williams Professor of Political Science June Speakman. "The phone banking and canvassing should be tightly targeted, focusing on those voters who can still be swayed, and urging your base to show up on primary day. In the last few days before September 9th, targeted GOTV will be essential.
Gubernatorial Primaries
On the Democratic side, early front-runners Angel Taveras and Gina Raimondo are facing a fast-closing -- and high spending -- Clay Pell.
The Mayor of Providence and Rhode Island General Treasurer were dubbed the darlings of the Rhode Island Democratic party by the Washington Post when it declared the Rhode Island primary one of the top ten in the country to watch -- and didn't even mention Pell as part of the the race.
"Given the saturation of TV ads, all three candidates have high name recognition at the point," said Speakman. "We can expect to see continued saturation, possibly with an increasingly negative tone. Pell has yet to go negative on either opponents. It would be nice to see at least one candidate reject that tactic."
See: 2014 Candidates' TV Ads HERE
"Attack ads during the waning days of the campaign are effective, but only if there's late breaking news," warned Endress. "Otherwise, going negative in the absence of a positive, forward-looking campaign will turn off voters."
Lieutenant Governor
Secretary of State and former North Providence Mayor Ralph Mollis, Cumberland Mayor Dan McKee, and former State Representative Frank Ferri are vying for the top number two spot.
Unlike the gubernatorial race, where the Democratic Party didn't endorse a candidate, the party endorsed Mollis. The state Young Democratic PAC, however, endorsed Ferri.
McKee is making a hard charge to obtain campaign dollars raised during the last four years -- not just the two year cycle - which could be a $60,000 game-changer as candidates scramble for ad space and air time in campaigns final weeks.
Still, Endress note that she considered Democratic primary very much in play.
"Mollis is clearly the establishment candidate. But in a political atmosphere in which Rhode Islanders are skeptical of the status quo, voters may be looking for an alternative." said Endress.
General Treasurer
Former General Treasurer Frank Caprio is running on his record from his tenure in office. but the recent resignation of brother David Caprio over the beach concession contract controversy could prove a distraction in the primary.
Mirroring the Lt. Governor's race, while Caprio has the state party endorsement, Magaziner took the Young Democrats' nod. Watch for Caprio to continue to hit Magaziner on his investment history and track record -- and whether Magaziner, who brought in former President Bill Clinton to fundraise for him, will try to tie Caprio to business-as-usual dealings in the state as a trump card.
Secretary of State
Gorbea had more cash on hand in the 28 days before primary report, however De Ramel far outspent her over the same time from --and both are racking up endorsements across the state. The winner will face John Carlevale in the general election.
Mayor of Providence
City Council President Michael Solomon, Brett Smiley, and Jorge Elorza appear to be facing a hotly contested primary, with the winner moving on to face two-time former Mayor Vincent "Buddy" Cianci, along with Republican Dan Harrop.
Whether the Anybody But Cianci effort ramps up during the primary will be a key piece to keep an eye out for during the primary, or if outside 527 money waits to see who the candidate will be for the general election.
"It's clear that the Democratic Party needs to wage a battle against Buddy Cianci. A candidate who brings ethical baggage into the general election race may undermine the party's challenge," said Endress
What the Candidates Need to Do in Next Three Weeks to Win
Angel Taveras
Primary: Governor's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $850,947.24
In the final weeks of the campaign, Providence Mayor Angel Taveras has to contend with a mounting challenge from Clay Pell, who has the backing both of deep pockets (his own), as well as Bob Walsh and the NEA of RI, as the two progressive candidates will battle it out for the party faithful and undecideds.
"This election may hinge on whether Raimondo and Taveras can convince progressive voters to abandon their allegiance to Pell," said Rhode Island College Professor of Communications Van Endress. "While pundits predict that Taveras is most vulnerable to a Pell surge, one can't discount that Taveras may be obvious beneficiary should progressives decide to abandon Pell."
Gina Raimondo
Primary: Governor's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $1,728,023.23
Rhode Island General Treasurer Gina Raimondo will look to forge ahead of the pack by running on her record -- and hammering Taveras on the economy and crime in the state's capital city, but will she have to set her sights as well on a surging Pell?
Raimondo has come under constant criticism from Taveras for her Wall Street ties (as well as Forbes columnist and SEC lawyer for her recent pension fund performance) -- watch to see how much Raimondo and Pell spend in an arms race in the sprint to the primary finish against Taveras.
Clay Pell
Primary: Governor's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $801,888.30
For all intents and purposes, the message -- and the money -- continue to move the needle for Pell, who struggled early in the campaign with losing his car (twice), and the revelation he failed to vote (multiple times).
Pell's continued unwillingness to go negative could be the master move, however -- or else his Achilles' heel. Can he convince enough voters that being an outsider -- and reformer -- is more important than years of experience between his opponents?
"For voters, Pell's candidacy may be too reminiscent of Lincoln Chafee's 2010 campaign: both are legacy candidates, both bill themselves as anti-establishment, maverick candidates, both seem challenged when dealing with everyday concerns of the average voter," said RIC's Endress. "If Chafee's approval ratings were high, then Pell's candidacy would enjoy the rewards of outsider status. But with very low approval ratings, Pell faces an uphill battle unless progressives and key unions can prevail in GOTV effort."
Allan Fung
Primary: Governor's Race, Republican
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $221,991.24
The endorsed Republican candidate recently backed out of a scheduled GOP debate, following the revelation that a campaign commercial focused on having Rhode Island "open for business" was filmed in Columbus, Ohio.
Fung's opponent Ken Block enters the final weeks with more currently in his war chest -- over $200,00 more -- but while both continue to look to raise money, and spend on media, they are well eclipsed by their Democratic counterparts (who last won an election to the state's top office in 1990).
"Fung needs to turn this around and quickly, but it may be too late. Fung probably represents the best opportunity for the Republican party, but he needs to clear the primary, and that's entirely in question," said Endress. "Can Fung turn it around? Yes, but it takes focus, discipline, and an expensive media campaign--all in a very short time frame."
Ken Block
Primary: Governor's Race, Republican
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $488,700.17
The former Moderate Party head has made inroads with the state's GOP community with his message of cutting taxes and reducing government waste, but is it enough to translate at the polls?
Block has repeatedly faced scrutiny for not releasing his tax returns -- and has been consistently hammered by opponent Fung for voting for Obama.
"In the initial stages of the campaign, Fung was front runner; he had high approval ratings, and Block was perceived in some circles as an opportunist. But a number of highly publicized missteps by Fung has make this race competitive," said Endress. "Block has remained focused and consistent. Fung has been plagued by the perils of the police ticketing scandal and some very basic campaign missteps."
Ralph Mollis
Primary: Lt. Governor's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary $37,450.27
The Secretary of State, whose war chest might be light compared to other statewide candidates, is likely banking on his name recognition -- and state party backing -- to help him to victory in the Democratic primary.
The question of a 38 Studios investigation into lobbying activities of those associated with the deal has been a double-edged sword, with some giving Mollis credit for taking action, and others questioning the political motivations behind the Secretary of State's office getting involved. Mollis deflected some of the heat questioning McKee's ties to firms associated with the 38 Studios case.
Watch to see how much Mollis spends in his primary battle -- the winner of the Democratic heat will face the winner between Catherine Taylor and Kara Young on the Republican side -- Taylor lost the closest statewide race in 2010 to Mollis for Secretary of State -- as well as Libertarian Tony Jones, who wants to abolish the office.
Dan McKee
Primary: Lt. Governor's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary $109,960.38*
The Cumberland Mayor is fighting tooth and nail to take the office of Lieutenant Governor on a reformist, municipal-consolidation based platform.
Key to his battle is unlocking $60,000 of money raised prior to 2013, when he was in cycle for Mayor of Cumberland in 2012. "$60,000 in the Lt. Governor's race is like $600,000 in the Governor's," McKee has said.
So while McKee's campaign ledger sheet says six figures, he'll currently be able to tap some $40,000 of that. In lieu of winning a lawsuit and restraining order filed Monday in Superior Court, McKee will have to adjust his planning-- severely -- in order to execute what he deems necessary for a successful campaign.
Frank Ferri
Primary: Lt. Governor's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $63,986.19
The liberal former State Representative snagged the endorsement of the state's Young Democrats, but Ferri faces an uphill battle against Mayors McKee and Mollis, although Ferri's campaign coffers outpace Mollis, and McKee's should it stay where it's at.
"In this race, because Frank Ferri is a late entry into the race, he'll have to work particularly hard to reach as many voters as possible," said RWU's Speakman.
RIC's Endress thought Ferri's outsider status, however, could serve him well.
"Elizabeth Roberts managed reelection for a position in which many voters questioned the legitimacy of the office," said Endress. "This office is not particularly well regarded by the average Rhode Island citizen, so it may take another unconventional candidate to win the race. It may take an anti-establishment candidate to win the race in 2014, and Frank Ferri fits the bill."
Frank Caprio
Primary: General Treasurer's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $112,765.19
The former General Treasurer appears to have erased ghosts of elections past when in 2010, while running for Governor, he famously told President Obama he could take his endorsement and "shove it", but Caprio could now be facing circumstances outside his control, following his brother's abrupt departure as chair of the state Democratic party following the beach concession contract controversy.
"Caprio's candidacy is complicated: he represents the last of an Italian-American dynasty, he might be perceived as a legacy candidate as well, and comes with political experience but with significant political baggage," said Endress. "This race may be decided upon the effectiveness of the ground game."
Watch to see if Caprio can stay the course on his message of experience and proven results, or if the well-connected Magaziner can derail him on his mission with the aid of financial ammunition -- Magaziner outspent Caprio by over a quarter million dollars between July 1 and August 11.
Seth Magaziner
Primary: General Treasurer's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $31,512.74
The RI Young Democrat-endorsed candidate for General Treasurer is taking heat for his money-management experience at Trillium, but the son of Clinton-advisor Ira Magaziner as charging hard lobbying accusations of "insider politics and mismanagement" at his opponent Frank Caprio.
Like candidates Clay Pell and Gillaume de Ramel, Magaziner has the capacity of deep pockets, not to mention well-backed supporters (read: Bill Clinton). Between July 1 and August 11, Magaziner spent more than $300K in campaign expenses.
"Seth Magaziner is a legacy candidate, but it remains to be seen how much the Magaziner name will influence this election," observed Endress. "More than any other candidate, Magaziner needs to articulate how this position represents more than a mere stepping stone for higher office. This position has come under increased scrutiny because of Raimondo's gubernatorial candidacy and Bill Clinton's surrogate support."
Guillaume De Ramel
Primary: Secretary of State's, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $72,568.83
The former Secretary of State Candidate recently garnered the endorsement of the state Progressive Democrats and has a litany of the who's-who of the state's labor unions behind him.
De Ramel appears to be facing strong competition from Nellie Gorbea -- watch to see how much he campaigns on his platform -- or else takes shots at his adversary to put distance between him and his adversary.
De Ramel's clearly banking on the primary being his toughest battle - he started the period on July 1st with $547,337 cash on hand before ending with $72,568.83. No doubt, there's more money where that came from.
Nellie Gorbea
Primary: Secretary of State's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $172,539.16
The former Deputy Secretary of State continues to run a campaign based on personal experience and vision for the office.
While having a "seemingly" larger reserve than her opponent at the moment , Gorbea continues to be strategic in light of campaign dollars. Between July 1 and August 11 Gorbea spent just over $24,000 -- being outspent by De Ramel by close to a half a million dollars.
"Nellie Gorbia may be the sleeper. If Raimondo prevails as the primary winner, Gorbea may be the beneficiary as the "Year of the Woman" for RI statewide candidates," said Endress. "Her candidacy is textbook for women running for statewide office: she's direct, claiming not to be beholding to interest groups, focused on ideas, and presenting to the electorate a fresh perspective. If Raimondo prevails, this may Gorbia's best chance for a win."
Michael Solomon
Primary: Providence Mayor's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $404,269.13
Providence City Council President Michael Solomon has the most formidable war chest -- thanks to massive personal loans - but potentially the greatest challenges, having dealt with both cutting deals while on the council, and now new ethics and bankruptcy disclosure issues coming to the surface.
"Solomon argues that he was instrumental in Angel Taveras' success in avoiding the fiscal category five hurricane. But whether that message resonates beyond political junkies and new media is in question," said Endress. "Candidates are only as relevant as latest new story and the story for Solomon is not at all positive. His problems with the ethics commission may prove to be his Achilles' heel."
Brett Smiley
Primary: Providence Mayor's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $37,073.09
The man with the plan continues to turn out visions for the City of Providence and take former Mayor Vincent "Buddy" Cianci to task when he can -- now the question will be can he turn out the vote on election day, across all the city's precincts.
"Smiley may be the sleeper candidate," said Endress. "He has a fresh and effective media campaign, he has courted the progressive vote, and he's perceived as a political outsider without baggage."
Smiley did have some baggage-by-association when it was revealed his campaign finance firm was responsible for a million dollar reporting error out of state, but look to see if that sticks as an issue in the coming weeks.
Jorge Elorza
Primary: Providence Mayor's Race, Democratic
Cash Balance 28 Days Before Primary: $160,621.28
Former Housing Court judge and Roger Williams Law Professor Jorge Elorza has had several recent dust-ups with his opponents, from battling with Smiley over a video Elorza said was edited to make him look like he was for raising taxes, to taking heat from Smiley in having the support of Gianfanco Marrocco, the owner of the beleaguered $3 Bar on Federal Hill -- both episodes he's managed to emerge relatively unscathed from.
"Elorza may be the chief beneficiary of Solomon's missteps," said Endress. "One cannot underestimate Elorza's ability to capture Angel Taveras' voter base. He's running an effective campaign, has avoided the typical campaign missteps."
