John Perilli: Rumors of Pell’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated
John Perilli, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™
John Perilli: Rumors of Pell’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated
From his poll numbers to his Prius, Clay Pell has been doubted, criticized and all but written off in his run for Governor. I’m here to disrupt that narrative. While Pell certainly faces an uphill battle, the summer is still young, and the primary electorate is still malleable––22 percent of voters are undecided, and 41 percent of voters who picked a side said they might change. Pell’s solid performance in the first televised debate and his first campaign ad indicate that he is still well in the game. Can Pell, like his grandfather did so many years ago, pull off an upset against two powerful favorites?
Blunder Dome
Depending on what school of thought you take, gaffes mean either everything or nothing. According to political scientists, gaffes make very little difference in general elections because so much is already known about the candidates. By that same logic, though, Pell’s car misplacement really hurt him. If all you knew about a candidate was that they couldn’t keep track of their car, would you trust them to keep track of your state? It was even worse because it played into the dominant stereotype of inexperience. Couldn’t you just picture a fledgling politician making a mistake like that?
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTHowever, contrary to most commentary, Pell was harmed but not doomed. The “prior knowledge” logic is actually starting to come to his rescue: The more he gets into the public eye, through debates and commercials, the more diluted and forgotten his early mistakes will be. With his debate performance, Pell looked to clear his name, and he stood tall. Similarly, his first commercial did exactly what it needed to do: It pivoted forward, and turned attention away from Pell’s pockmarked past.
The latest WPRI/Providence Journal poll really could not have come at a worse time for Pell. Just when Pell was trying to put the past behind him, the poll came along and told everyone what they already knew: The two popular veterans Taveras and Raimondo were neck and neck at front, and Pell was behind. I do not doubt the accuracy of the poll, nor the good intentions of those who commissioned it, but its timing was somewhat misleading. By taking a snapshot of the race before advertising began, it calcified an image of the contest which would be upended in just a few weeks. The poll showed Pell dragging his feet in last. But in reality, through argument and advertisement, Pell is clawing his way back.
Young and Moneyed
Another thing many seem to forget––or brush aside––is just how well-funded a candidate Pell is. I believe this comes from a distorted sense of time. Over quarters and quarters, we have watched Gina Raimondo’s fundraising juggernaut shatter records, giving us an inflated sense of just how much she had raised. In reality, Clay Pell’s $2 million––mostly his own money––is around sixty percent of Gina’s war chest of $3.35 million, and he has been in the race for a fraction of the time.
I mean to make no assumptions about the depth of Pell’s personal wealth, but theoretically, if he were to pitch in a third million-dollar loan, Raimondo’s highly-touted fundraising lead would be practically erased. This doesn’t account for the fact that Pell has a fundraising network just as lucrative as Raimondo’s which is largely untapped, as well as one of Rhode Island’s most capable fundraisers in Amy Gabarra. This should worry both Raimondo and Taveras. In a campaign where drowning the airwaves in ads and hiring a massive field team to turn out your supporters constitute a potent one-two combo, Pell packs a solid punch with his fundraising potential.
A Path to Victory?
Still, money and debates and advertisements do not an election win. Pell needs votes, and a concrete plan to earn them.
I think Pell wins by being an alternative. He must use every chance he can to split himself away from Taveras and Raimondo. Without getting into the uncertain calculus of constituencies and ideologies, Pell’s challenge will ultimately be to convince voters who are not yet certain of their choice to break his way.
To get the 22 percent of undecided voters, he will have to continue his air war and follow his internal polls. But to make inroads with the 25 percent of primary voters who lean towards Raimondo and Taveras but are unsure of their allegiance, he will have to actively pull them away. This means driving every wedge he can between himself and the other candidates. If he does not present these doubting voters with an alternative, they will not change their choice. He did only a passable job of this at the debate, but if he improves his efforts, expect some voters to start changing their minds.
In essence, Pell is still in a similar position to when he began: He is a young underdog facing two established and popular stalwarts. But no one should write his epitaph yet. There is quite a bit of campaigning yet to do, and only the election is the final word.
