5 Tips For Watching Tonight’s National Election Coverage - Rob Horowitz

5 Tips For Watching Tonight’s National Election Coverage - Rob Horowitz

Here are 5 tips for watching tonight’s national coverage of the election results:

1.  Commentator tilts before polling places close provide clues to the early exit poll results: The election night commentary from about 5:00 PM until the polls close and results begin to come in at 700 PM or so are shaped by the early exit poll results to which all the networks are privy.  If anchors and commentators shade their comments towards one of the candidates having a good night, that is nearly always a clue as to which candidate is ahead in the early exit polls. But if it seems as if your candidate is doing well based on the initial gum-flapping, it is premature to break out the champagne.  Early exit poll results are often poor indicators of the final result.  One of the most famous anecdotes about jumping to a conclusion based in this case on leaked national early exit poll results was media consultant Bob Shrum reportedly saying to John Kerry on election night in 2004, “May, I be the first to call you Mr. President.”

 

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2. When evaluating raw returns, know whether mail ballots are included in the totals: Especially because President Trump’s repeated efforts to cast doubts about voting by mail persuaded a significant percentage of Republicans to not cast their vote this way, mail ballots totals are likely to favor the democrats, while election day in-person voting will favor Republicans. In order to make an informed guess about what the raw totals portend as they come in, it is essential to know the breakdown between votes by mail and in-person ones.  In Pennsylvania, for example, the mail ballots will not be counted on election night and as a result it will in all likelihood mean that Donald Trump will be ahead at the end of the evening;  this in no way, however, means that he will be the winner after all the votes are counted.

 

3.   Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio results may be the Canaries in the Coal Mine:  Florida, Georgia. North Carolina and Ohio will have most of their mail ballots counted before the polls close. Additionally, the polls in these states close at relatively early Eastern times: most of Florida polls close at 700 PM Eastern time and the mail ballot returns are usually posted soon thereafter ( a portion of the state is in the Central time zone and their polls will close at 800 PM Eastern Time);  North Carolina and Ohio polls close at 730 PM Eastern time;and Georgia polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.  If Joe Biden looks as if he is going to win one or more of these states-- all won by Trump in 2016--  that is a sign the former vice-president is poised for a  solid and comfortable national win. On the other hand, if Donald Trump appears to be winning all these states with several percentage point margins. it is an indicator that this will be a close race nationally with Trump positioned to possibly pull off another upset.

 

4.  Pay Attention to the Fox News election decision desk.  The state by state calls and the ultimate national call made by the Fox News decision desk will take on outsized importance as a check on the president, if he prematurely declares victory on election night before key swing states mail ballots are counted as Axios has reported that he is prepared to do, or if he continues to complain about widespread voter fraud without providing any evidence of it.  Fox News is where most Republicans and conservatives will get their election night news. If the highly independent and widely respected Fox News decision desk is contradicting the president in real time, it will greatly complicate his efforts and likely keep most other Republican elected officials from backing the president’s play-- unless it is justified by the results.

 

5. Realize that it could be a few days before we know the Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin results.  Absentee ballot results will not be known on election night in the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  State laws in all three states prevent counting them in advance. As a result, unless these states are blow-outs for one candidate or the other, it will take a few days to get the results. In other words, in the event the presidential race turns out to be very close, election night coverage will turn into election week coverage.

 

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.