A Lively Experiment - Election Analysis

Eric Hyers - Best Winning

Eric Hyers - Best Winning Percentage in RI

Eric Hyers ran four contested races for David Cicilline - the 2010 and 2012 primaries and General Elections. 

Each of those four races Cicilline could have lost.  Remember in the Democratic of 2010, then-Mayor Cicilline only received 37% of the vote in a four-way race. Anthony Gemma received 23%, David Segal 20% and Bill Lynch received 19%.

Arguably, in 2012 Democratic primary should have been a loss for Cicilline. He had the lowest approval rat of any Congressional candidate in the US, according to Jen Duffy of the Cook Report.

If Gemma had focused on his experience as a job creator and Cicilline’s poor financial management as Mayor of Providence, the race would have been far different.  Instead, Gemma went on a political rant focused on voter fraud. 

In 2014, Hyers was tapped to run Raimondo’s gubernatorial campaign. He was both good and lucky.

First, he got a three-way race in the Democratic primary with Angel Taveras and Clay Pell splitting the union and anti-Raimondo vote.

Second, in the General Election Raimondo (and Hyers) caught the biggest break as Robert Healey jumped into the race as the 24th hour as a Moderate Candidate.

In the end, Raimondo and Hyers won two three way races and never broke 43% in either race.

Sometimes lucky is as good as being good.

Polling Miss

Democratic Consultant Fleming and WPRI Polling

The primary outcomes were not kind to Democratic Consultant Joe Fleming’s polling for WPRI, but the General Election results raise real concerns of the polling is turning into a disservice to the voter.

In the most contested races of statewide candidates Fleming/WPRI released polling data that found:

WPRI POLL Governor’s Race: Raimondo 41%, Fung 35% and Healey 8%

FINAL RESULT Governor’s Race: Healey scored 21% (Fleming/WPRI Healey was undercounted by 13%)

WPRI POLL Mayor’s Race: Cianci 38%, Elorza 32%

FINAL RESULT Mayor’s Race: Elorza 52%, Cianci 45% (WPRI’s poll was an outlier to Brown’s poll and the final results)

WPRI POLL: Lt.Governor’s Race: McKee 36%, Taylor 27%

FINAL RESULT: Lt. Governor’s Race: McKee 54%, Taylor 34% (Fleming/WPRI’s Poll dramatically under measured McKee’s strength)

The Fleming polling strategy seems to be in the same thought process as hand grenades and horseshoes.

York Behind the Scenes

Myrth York

Myrth York failed three-times as the Democratic candidate for Governor. Her first race against Lincoln Almond was razor close, but her next two efforts weren’t close. Since then she has transformed to being a major force in behind the scenes behind progressive and female Democratic candidates.

In 2010, Myrth York was co-chair of Angel Taveras’ transition but jumped ship to Gina Raimondo for the 2014 Governor’s Election. Win for York.

She started supporting Brett Smiley for Mayor and then jumped to Jorge Elorza. Win for York.

York was also a behind the scenes leader in the effort to knock Kevin Jackson out as Councilman in the Third Ward.  She personally put the full court effort on to elect Marcus Mitchell. Loss for York.

Two post scripts: As GoLocal was first to report, York may have issues for violating state campaign finance laws relative to the creation of her Anybody But Cianci group. The group may have not met state deadlines and disclosure requirements. A hearing is scheduled for November 13.

The other issue is that York, presently the chair of the Zoning Board in Providence, is likely to face stiff opposition from the City Council if she wants to be re-appointed.

PHOTO: C-Span

Biggest Insider

Joe Shekarchi - Biggest Insider

Joe Shekarchi started as a staffer for Governor Bruce Sundlun. Over the past two decades he has made his way to a lead position in the House and now will be running the Gina Raimondo transition (with Jonathan Duffy and Carol Grant). Make no mistake about it, Shekarchi is emerging as the most powerful insiders in Rhode Island.

According to sources he can have the Chief of Staff position if he wants it, but may be eyeing a run for Mayor of Warwick. The other short list candidate for chief-of-staff is former Sundlun Communications Director and Citizens Bank Executive Barbara Cottom.

Shekarchi may now be the most influential Rhode Islander no one has ever heard off. 

Cianci Democrat

Vincent Cianci - Democrat

Hindsight is often 20/20, but making the claim that Buddy Cianci blew the chance at 3.0, by making a terrible strategic political decision is common sense. His decision to run as an independent and get a free pass to the General Election ultimately was a flawed decision.

If Cianci had run as Democrat he would have, at a minimum, faced Jorge Elorza and Michael Solomon. Cianci would have pulled 40% like he always does. 

The anti-Buddy group would not have trouble organizing. The East Side would not have been so united. 

Cianci lost because he ran in the wrong election.